ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[nizar]

reasonably the sp should drop after it gos ex div because the div is no longer avail'. So here I am still sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in

u had to be in from friday to get the divvy.
monday it was trading ex-div - which means it should drop as much as the dividend amount.
BUT because this company is a winner, and zinc has been going strong, the buying on that day was so strong that it actually went up on that day.

the best time to buy ZFX is actually right NOW.
when it was $5 i thought wait its gonna be cheaper, and then when it was $10 i thought lets wait till it drops its looking bloody expensive now, and then it goes to $8 in the correction, we still dont buy coz at that point it looks like its gonna go to zero, and then now its $13?? Do we buy now or not?? Or do we wait until its $20 and let the story go on?

i know which is my choice

the bull run in zinc is only getting started.

please do your own research or seek professional financial advice before investing.

 

[Kipp]

Hey Niz,
do you think SP needs to close above $13.50 for a breakout to all time highs? Or do you think it could arrive at any minute? I've got my eyes on the volume... but these things can happen very quickly... then as you say ZFX is at $16 and you it looks very obvious in hindsight...

u had to be in from friday to get the divvy.
monday it was trading ex-div - which means it should drop as much as the dividend amount.
BUT because this company is a winner, and zinc has been going strong, the buying on that day was so strong that it actually went up on that day.

the best time to buy ZFX is actually right NOW.
when it was $5 i thought wait its gonna be cheaper, and then when it was $10 i thought lets wait till it drops its looking bloody expensive now, and then it goes to $8 in the correction, we still dont buy coz at that point it looks like its gonna go to zero, and then now its $13?? Do we buy now or not?? Or do we wait until its $20 and let the story go on?

i know which is my choice

the bull run in zinc is only getting started.

please do your own research or seek professional financial advice before investing.

 

[nizar]

Hey Niz,
do you think SP needs to close above $13.50 for a breakout to all time highs? Or do you think it could arrive at any minute? I've got my eyes on the volume... but these things can happen very quickly... then as you say ZFX is at $16 and you it looks very obvious in hindsight...

Hi Kipp,

Yeh its facing resistance at 13.40-13.50. If it can close above 13.60 today that would put it a close on the all time high, which is very bullish. Its tried 3 times in the last few days but couldnt break through, hopefully today, its looking quite strong.

 

[rederob]

Hi Kipp,

Yeh its facing resistance at 13.40-13.50. If it can close above 13.60 today that would put it a close on the all time high, which is very bullish. Its tried 3 times in the last few days but couldnt break through, hopefully today, its looking quite strong.

It's only a resistance point because it was a previous high.
If the trend for zinc inventories continues then so will ZFX.
Never lose sight of the fact that ZFX has risen 25% in a month, so making further headway now leaves it continuously prone to profit taking.
I will be surprised if this upleg does not bring us to $15 before Xmas.

 

[nizar]

It's only a resistance point because it was a previous high.
If the trend for zinc inventories continues then so will ZFX.
Never lose sight of the fact that ZFX has risen 25% in a month, so making further headway now leaves it continuously prone to profit taking.
I will be surprised if this upleg does not bring us to $15 before Xmas.

$15 by Xmas - thats 10% return from $13.50 - hardly inspiring.
I reckon we could see zinc spot approaching us$2/lb and stocks approach 50ktonnes. Even with lower depletion rates this situation looks likely.

If zinc spot stays at us$1.80/lb though then yeh i guess $15 will be reached just on general market sentiment alone.

In my opinion, closer to $20/share is more probable.

 

[pacer]

Go baby, GO!!!!.......why would you sell?


Kzl is looking to break resistance too.......ride the bull till it gets tired!

 

[Kipp]

$15 by Xmas - thats 10% return from $13.50 - hardly inspiring.
I reckon we could see zinc spot approaching us$2/lb and stocks approach 50ktonnes. Even with lower depletion rates this situation looks likely.

If zinc spot stays at us$1.80/lb though then yeh i guess $15 will be reached just on general market sentiment alone.

In my opinion, closer to $20/share is more probable.

Thanks for your thoughts... still at $13.50... small volume... think the market is waiting for the net leg up in Zinc prices. I'm starting to question the difference between KZL, PEM, ZFX etc as there SP charts all seem to mirror each otehr so ZFX is as good or bad as the others.... (OK so this is VERRRY simplified statement- forgive me).
Will get on board again once the price is right...
Have a good weekend

 

[pacer]

Thanks for your thoughts... still at $13.50... small volume... think the market is waiting for the net leg up in Zinc prices. I'm starting to question the difference between KZL, PEM, ZFX etc as there SP charts all seem to mirror each otehr so ZFX is as good or bad as the others.... (OK so this is VERRRY simplified statement- forgive me).
Will get on board again once the price is right...
Have a good weekend

When are you going to get on?....$15....$17....$18......$20......

I can feel your buy button getting rubbed alot........you will be to late though and kick yourself later...lol

You cant say you did the wrong thing if you never played the game....never look back on a missed trade..... just learn from it...or you'll go nuts!!!!

 

[michael_selway]

Thanks for your thoughts... still at $13.50... small volume... think the market is waiting for the net leg up in Zinc prices. I'm starting to question the difference between KZL, PEM, ZFX etc as there SP charts all seem to mirror each otehr so ZFX is as good or bad as the others.... (OK so this is VERRRY simplified statement- forgive me).
Will get on board again once the price is right...
Have a good weekend

you forgot CBH!

thx

MS

 

[nizar]

you forgot CBH!

thx

MS

I probably prefer CBH over PEM

 

[Fab]

I think the price of ZFX has topped for now. The record date for dividend was friday therefore I believe people were waiting for monday to start selling ZFX and strip the dividend.
I like ZFX but I am afraid that it has run too hot recently

 

[nizar]

I think the price of ZFX has topped for now. The record date for dividend was friday therefore I believe people were waiting for monday to start selling ZFX and strip the dividend.
I like ZFX but I am afraid that it has run too hot recently

No offence Fab but thats IMO probably the WORST reason to not buy a stock.

When i first bought KZL at $2.45 i was thinking - maybe i should wait - it sure had run hard in the last 2 months from $1.55 - and not long before that it was about $0.80. Thank God i bought it It went to $4.70 before it retraced.

Also PDN when i bought it, it had already run from....

I could go on all day with examples.

Anyway, from my experience, thats not the way to play the market.

Probably the 2 most valuable pieces of advice i ever heard when i first started:
1/ never think that because a share price has run so hard that it wont run any further.
2/ never think that when a share price has fallen so much that it wont fall any further.

 

[CanOz]

hmmmm, great advice Nizar. I dumped MRE because of thought it formed a doji...big deal, it was low volume...it since doubled. I now pay much closer attention to the price action.

Hand onto to those winners, and dump the losers. easy said eh?

 

[Fab]

nizar,
I agree with what yu are saying nevertheless what I am trying to say is a lot of people would have pushed the price higher to get the dividend and might get out of ZFX soon to cash in their gain therefore pushing the stock lower. In the mid term ZFX is definetely on my buy list but more around $10

 

[clowboy]

run hot yes.

Toped, maybee not

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe it went ex div last monday (16th) and closed up.

That seems alwfully bullish to me.

 

[Julia]

I think the price of ZFX has topped for now. The record date for dividend was friday therefore I believe people were waiting for monday to start selling ZFX and strip the dividend.
I like ZFX but I am afraid that it has run too hot recently

Fab

What's your reasoning behind suggesting ZFX has topped for now?

Clowboy is right: it's the ex-dividend date that matters, rather than the record date. The SP dropped on the day following going ex-div but since then has resumed the uptrend.

Also agree with Nizar's comments.

Julia

 

[pacer]

Is there a sideways trend?.....no
Is there a down trend?..........no

Sooooooooo it must still be an ............... trend.

I'll leave it up to FAB to fill in the gap.....lol

Goto investopedia.com if you don't know the answer, and it is a great site for beginners who want to learn a bit.......

 

[pacer]

Egoli.com news......Net profit up 366% from previous year, more undiscoved ore bodies to found on Queensland tenements, and should be exceptional Zinc prices throught to 2008, ect...........only concerns are costs and labor shortages...........I think I'll sell.....
NOT!!!!!!

 

[Damuzzdu]

I'm thinking that ZFX run might come to end soon, maybe around the $14.00 mark. This stock was under $11.00 in last few days of Sept, so we have had a 25% increase in the price (this is not including the 70c divvy).

This type of increase happened in last April when stock ran very quickly to $13.50, then suffered a huge fall. Last time I kicked myself for not selling at $13.50 and waited 2 days. This cost me $30K in lost profits.

Since then I've seen the stock rise nicely and I managed to load up nicely.

I'm thinking that stock needs a rest for a few weeks and may suffer profit takers. I'd reckon around high $11's, low $12's represents excellent buying. I will adding to my holdings if we see that level again. I'll be trying to increase my holdings to around 40K before next divvy is announced.

For next divvy I expect board to announce it to be at same level (70c - March 07) and then it will be the final divvy that we will see something around $1.50-$2.00 (this announcement will in be Sept 07). That will make possibly $2.50 return in just divvys. To have 40K will mean a fully franked divvy of something like $100K. To achieve the some with say CBA you need to buy 44,642 shares ie outlay $2.07M, do it with ZFX and the outlay at today's price is just $.54M. This is outstanding return.

Of course if you already own the stock , the yield is even better.

I guess the only downside of this is that it will not last forever, so the next 18 months are critical to make the most of any investment in ZFX.

Cheers
muzz

 

[nizar]

I guess the only downside of this is that it will not last forever, so the next 18 months are critical to make the most of any investment in ZFX.

Agree