ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[GreatPig]

Take a look at a few of these.

GP

 

[michael_selway]

Take a look at a few of these.

GP

Can a head & shouders be confused with a double bottom? can there be grey areas?

thx

MS

 

[rederob]

MS
The TA "suggests" a downtrend.
TA types will therefore pre-empt market movements by taking short positions or quitting long positions.
Unfortunately they really do not know what is happening in the real world with lead/zinc, and this is where I take advantage of their capacity to bring down the stock's price to my buying range: About $9.
The tightness of the zinc market almost assures this stock of attaining and surpassing its previous high ($13.50) which means that a buy-in at near $9 will give about a 50% return in the medium term (I would say before year's end).
A smart trader would now be sh!tcanning this stock in every forum they could post on, and buy the big dips.
Nickel is about to capitulate its base metal dominance and I reckon it will be quickly replaced by zinc: So buy Zinifex, or buy more if you already have some!

 

[mit]

TA will make money on the way down and on the way up. Double payday, nothing wrong with that.

MIT

 

[Kipp]

Take a look at a few of these.

GP

Thanks GP/// and for what it's worth, forgive me for doubting your move to jump off CSM. Bet you're happy as a pig in **** that you got rid of them.

 

[alankew]

Does anyone know when results are out on ZFX and what the forecasts are

 

[redandgreen]

24th August...

 

[alankew]

Thanks for the reply

 

[rederob]

TA will make money on the way down and on the way up. Double payday, nothing wrong with that.

MIT

And you made how much today, mit?

 

[michael_selway]

ZFX ZINIFEX LIMITED Overnight Price: $9.91

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ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - Target $11.42 (was $11.48). The broker suggests the quarterly production report was solid, while the outlook for next year is positive as there should be less production downtime and higher metal production.
Valuation is $11.42.


Target price is $11.42 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$1.51 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform - Not a bad result, Credit Suisse says, but the stock remains an “option on the zinc price.”
Zinc outlook is seen as positive given supply tightness, the analysts say, with LME stocks still heading south.


Target price is $15.08 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$5.17 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - The broker was happy with production and has made no changes to its positive view.

Target price is $13.74 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$3.83 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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JP Morgan rates the stock as Underweight - Production aside, the broker notes exploration is increasing and following the quarterly results it has increased FY06 earnings by 2.6%. Underweight is retained with the greatest risk being the A$ zinc price.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.91 Difference$0.91) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately - 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Sell, High Risk - The broker, a prominent ZFX-basher, notes quarterly sales were particularly good and it has lifted NPV from $7.65 to $8.15. However, the analysts continue to maintain these zinc prices won''t last more than a year, and that ZFX is a sell down to $6.00.

Current Price is $9.91. Target price not assessed.


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SB Citigroup rates the stock as Upgrade to Buy from Hold, High Risk - Target $12.00 (was $14.00). The broker has lifted its FY06 earnings forecast by 5% to $950m to reflect ongoing strength in metal prices, though it has cut its forecast for FY07 by 5% to $1.33bn due to lower lead grades at Century and higher exploration expenditure.
The broker expects the company to pay out all its excess cash as dividends over the next 12-18 months, leading it to lift its dividend estimates to 70c/share in FY06 and $1.20/share in FY07.

Supporting its upgraded recommendation is zinc remains the broker''s preferred base metal exposure for the next few years.


Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$2.09 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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UBS rates the stock as Buy 2 - UBS sees zinc market fundamentals as remaining robust and the broker says this should drive cash flow.
UBS expects the company to return $2.60 in cash over the coming 18 months.


Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$3.59 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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thx

MS

 

[michael_selway]

Added

Macquarie rates the stock as Neutral - The analysts expect the stock to trade in line with the zinc price, but they don’t expect that to be higher in 2007 than 2006.
Dividend yield is seen as providing downside support.

Volatility is expected to continue over the short term as the market comes to terms with increased Chinese production.


Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$0.09 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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it appears JP Morgan and Merill are bearish on ZFX

thx

MS

 

[michael_selway]

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 35.9 186.8 290.2 243.9
DPS 4.0 63.5 120.0 98.1

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-06 186.8 5.5 420.6%
Year Ending 30-06-07 290.2 3.6 55.4%

Previous Close 52 week high 52 week low
10.35 13.54 3.13
P/E Ratio 5.54
Sector Materials
Market Capital $5,057 million

Century cranks up production

Date: 25/7/2006
Author: Isabelle Oderberg
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 22

Australian zinc group Zinifex has announced its production figures for 2005-06, and maintained its profit prediction. It believes it will record a net result for the financial year of $A940m, compared with $234.7m in the preceding period. The main asset, the Century mine in Queensland, had an all-time high output of 599,300 tonnes of zinc and lead concentrate for the 12 months, with overall production for the company rising from 1.559 million tonnes to 1.575 million tonnes. CEO Greig Gailey is confident zinc prices will stay at their current healthy levels. In mid-2006, the commodity traded at $US3239 per tonne. Century had caused a cost over-run of $A280m earlier in 2006. On 24 July 2006, stock in Zinifex closed $A0.03 lower at $A9.91

thx

MS

 

[silence]

Well, I'm seeing a nice downtrend/wedge developing here. The upward sloping line is an approximate neckline, hard to say where it is exactly but as the chart comes up to touch it before retreating I'll stick with what I've done.

Theoretical trade tomorrow depending on direction.

 

[rederob]

Well, I'm seeing a nice downtrend/wedge developing here. The upward sloping line is an approximate neckline, hard to say where it is exactly but as the chart comes up to touch it before retreating I'll stick with what I've done.
Theoretical trade tomorrow depending on direction.

silence
I admire your fortitude.
The medium to long term direction of zinc will see it reclaim former highs.
I give no credence to any chart interpretation that suggests otherwise, except for those looking for very short term set ups.
My caveat is that if the Australian and US dollars are at parity before Christmas, my view will be incorrect.
Within the next few months the backwardation of zinc will prompt spot prices to historical highs, and global supply of this metal will not be able curb the trend.

 

[michael_selway]

silence
I admire your fortitude.
The medium to long term direction of zinc will see it reclaim former highs.
I give no credence to any chart interpretation that suggests otherwise, except for those looking for very short term set ups.
My caveat is that if the Australian and US dollars are at parity before Christmas, my view will be incorrect.
Within the next few months the backwardation of zinc will prompt spot prices to historical highs, and global supply of this metal will not be able curb the trend.

Its holding up nicely at 10+, steayd is teh direction oen coudl say

Date: 13/7/2006
Author: Tim Findlay
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 25

Goldman Sachs JBWere has identified Zinifex and Minara Resources as two Australian mining stocks that offer value at present. Analyst Ian Preston says nickel, copper and zinc are likely to perform better than other base metals. However, he is bearish about the outlook for the aluminium price. Meanwhile, Preston says the strategies of investing in diversified miners versus buying shares in miners with a focus on one commodity both have advantages, and both should therefore be considered

 

[Kipp]

Its holding up nicely at 10+, steayd is teh direction oen coudl say

ms I can't fathom the reason behind ur spelliing?
Anyhow, pretty good to SP hold at 10.50 yesterday, even after Zinc twittered back to 1.49 overnight on Thurs... guess the market could see that it was a just a knee-jerk to the Airline thing in the UK.

 

[silence]

Ok I was a bit premature with the prediction of a movement before, it is still within a triangle formation with volume diminishing.

I am expecting a sharper movement within a few days. Impossible to tell which direction at this point.
Given China, most likely up, but nobody can force the market to do what they want it to.

 

[rwkni1]

I agree - the last 3 trading days there have been pretty sharp declines in the LME zinc price (down from US$1.58/lb to US$145/lb) with only a small downward response from ZFX. Usually ZFX would track the zinc price a lot more closely that that, suggesting to me that there is some buying pressure building. With LME stockpiles still falling between 1kt and 1kt per day, I think we could see zinc find some support if US industrial production numbers are good this week (out on thursday i think). I'd also be pretty confident that the FY results on the 24th will not disappoint, and there may well be some buying ahead of the result.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

I am picking ZFX to hit $10.15 or so in the next few days, for its last bottom spike before making a sustained hit past $11.00 shortly after. I sold out of ZFX a week back on this assumption.I hope it does otherwise I have missed the boat as I'm sure as! that ZFX will sustain above $11.00 next time and go north from their. I reckon ZFX'S EPS is one of the best on the market. With the exception of KZL, their fundamentals are better than money in the bank.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I am picking ZFX to hit $10.15 or so in the next few days, for its last bottom spike before making a sustained hit past $11.00 shortly after. I sold out of ZFX a week back on this assumption.I hope it does otherwise I have missed the boat as I'm sure as! that ZFX will sustain above $11.00 next time and go north from their. I reckon ZFX'S EPS is one of the best on the market. With the exception of KZL, their fundamentals are better than money in the bank.

Risk?