ZFX - Zinifex Limited

Ken · 6 December 2007

this has to be the best stock on the asx over the past few months to have made money in upward and doward movements.

I have a theory, which has worked twice for me so far.

My theory has been, buy at $14.00 or under on margin loan, because the dividend covers the interest payed, and wait for takeover speculation, or even take over offer.

It has worked thus far.

just a theory.... possibly fortunate the zinc price has rebounded and the market has gone up.

either way my theory is that at some point in time ZFX will aquire or be aquired.

legs · 7 December 2007

vishalt said:
The internet is a bit of a barrier so I'll just clarify I wasn't being emotional.

And I don't play in small/mid-cap stocks anymore (I bailed out of Zinifex once upon a time when it was $20.)

Of-course you're right, Zinifex does have a nicely loaded warchest, but last I heard Roseberry had around 4 years left and Century around 8 - unless it realizes mine life past 2020 but it has not done so yet, it just seems a big risk for X to take it unless its realised first don't you think?

Legs: Yeah ta, then I can use my massive powers to manipulate market movements by buying the shares the day before and writing rumors about them the next, set the prophecy up yeah? Also maybe you should argue my points instead of lashing out at me like I'm some market guru, that is not the case, its just my perspective and opinion, I don't claim to be an expert by any means but I'll bolt out whatever is on my mind.

I wasn't lashing out at you... simply making a point that if you think that 4,5 or 6 news services could all have the takeover rumour wrong, or at least in your words way of the track and ridiculous, then you must have the amazing ability to read the market better and YOU should be a financial reporter. I never meant it to be mean or nasty, a little sarcastic maybe, but all in fun.

uhu · 11 December 2007

There are the new speculation about the merger (or acquisition) between Anglo American and the swiss Xstrata.
Well, if Xstrata needs money to buy Anglo or Anglo will buy Xstrata...how can Xstrata acq. Zinifex?

Probably that's why ZFX dropped last day? I was suprised because zinc and lead were up at Friday, so I waited a 1-2% "lift" for ZFX share prices too...

3MT · 11 December 2007

I don't think ZFX will track zinc and lead prices that much from here. It will track merger/acquisition sentiment much more.

I hold ZFX and would of course smile if xtrata and co. come this way, but I really doubt ZFX will be acquired. Keep in mind somebody will have to pay a super premium for it (substantially more than $20 if Michelmore has anything to say about it). Why would you bother at that price? It's only got limited zinc and lead assets and cash, which for the big boys is petty cash equivalent.

I am holding the stock because of my belief that this will be a champion mid-tier miner in the years to come, with its management and strong balance sheet and hope that they will make a clever and strategic acquisition/merger shortly, which perhaps is what many in the the market is also expecting.

I would expect ZFX to have an inverse relationship with most mining stock movements, because the higher the other SP goes up the more expensive it would be for ZFX to acquire them.

ROE · 11 December 2007

Take over party is over boys
Easy cash dry up .. even the Chinese walk away from nufarm
buy on fundamentals not some street talk that may or may not eventuate.

Ashsaege · 14 December 2007

Im not sure what to expect for ZFX on the horizon. It is a very volatile stock and the market expects some Corporate action - possible takeovers.
We need some good news!

adobee · 14 December 2007

Well I am back on the ZFX band wagon today at $14 !

I think this company is good buying and I am liking the chances of an XSTRATA take over .. Xstrata is getting a bit worried by that brazilian mob wanting to take them and when they are worried they get aggressive... I think ZFX will be the logical buy .. but even with no takeover $14 is value in my book..

tronic72 · 14 December 2007

I'm only new to charting but does ZFX currently look like an inverse Head & Shoulders? Those in the know will know what that signals.

Interested to know what some of the technical gurus think.

adobee · 14 December 2007

tronic72 said:
I'm only new to charting but does ZFX currently look like an inverse Head & Shoulders? Those in the know will know what that signals.

Interested to know what some of the technical gurus think.

as some one who does no charting what so ever what does this head and shoulders signal ??? Dandruff ??

Kowabunga · 14 December 2007

I'm new aswell - looking at the charts, the daily one looks like its forming an inverse head & shoulders...its not quite there yet...sp needs to get up to the neck line...
If you look at the weekly chart - it looks like a head and shoulders to me..
can someone tell me from a tech analysis perspective - what does it mean when ur weekly chart indicates a reversal in the opposite direction to the daily chart?? do you just sit back and say neither is reliable? look for other supporting evidence for each?

tronic72 · 14 December 2007

adobee said:
as some one who does no charting what so ever what does this head and shoulders signal ??? Dandruff ??

"Dandruff ??"

Thanks for my evening chuckle. It "often" means that it's about to turn around. (or so I'm lead to believe). I've not been charting long so I'm a newbie when it comes to such things.

ozrob · 15 December 2007

The hot stocks of 2008
IT is the question economists and investors alike have been peddling for some years now.

When will this unprecedented bull market come crashing to a prolonged halt?

The increasingly buoyant Australian stockmarket is just about to complete its 17th year uninterrupted of growth and upward momentum.

To state the bleeding obvious, we are getting closer and closer to a major downturn that could make the August 07 mini-collapse look like a storm in a teacup.

Despite this, analysts remain convinced market growth will continue fervently throughout 2008, as the local bourse finally digests the sub-prime hiccup and matures relatively unabated.

So if now is a good time to invest, what should one be looking at?

Well, today The Daily Telegraph makes it easy for you.

Australia's leading analysts have given the inside word on the hottest stocks for 2008.

Credit Suisse

Zinifex (ZFX) - Recently moved from the sell pile due to its backtracking. Current: $14.05; Year High: $21.60 (Jul 07); Year Low: $13.74 (Nov 07).

link to story

I found this article today, what does every one think.
I bought some a few weeks ago at $14.60 and have been holding them as they rollercoaster up and down.

adobee · 15 December 2007

ozrob said:
link to story

I found this article today, what does every one think.
I bought some a few weeks ago at $14.60 and have been holding them as they rollercoaster up and down.

Didnt credit suisse just sell everything they have in ZFX ?? They bought in not long ago at around $15 something I think..
Once one takeover offer comes to fruition I think we will see a couple on the table pretty quick.. ZFX is the logical buy for alot of companies...

ozrob · 17 December 2007

ZINIFEX has made a $697.44 million all-cash bid for Allegiance Mining that would be increased upon certain conditions.

Zinifex's base offer is 90 cents per Allegiance share.

But the offer will rise to $1 per share for all shareholders if the predator obtains an interest or 30 per cent or more, or if the bid is recommended by Allegiance's board.

The conditional step-up offer values the target at $744.93 million.

Allegiance owns the 8500 tonnes per annum Avebury nickel project on the Tasmanian west coast, which is due to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2008.

"For Zinifex shareholders, we like nickel as an attractive long term growth business and Allegiances Avebury project is an excellent entry point for Zinifex," Zinifex chief executive elect Andrew Michelmore said.

"With nickel production due to commence in early 2008, this mine would add immediate growth to Zinifex's existing profit centres, the Century and Rosebery mines."

"Avebury is just the start of our strategy to vigorously grow in Zinifex's chosen base metals of copper, nickel and zinc," Mr Michelmore said.

"We like investing in high margin, long life, expandable mines, and Avebury delivers all of these attributes. Avebury promises to be an exciting new nickel region that, with appropriate investment, we expect will support rapid production expansion and mine life extension."

Zinifex said its offer represents a 27 per cent premium to Allegiance's closing share price on Friday, based on the 90 cent offer price.

It also represents a 29 per cent premium to the one-month volume weighted average price of 69.5 cents.

Mr Michelmore said Zinifex sees a bright future for Allegiance employees.

"We would welcome them to Zinifex, and together with our Rosebery operations, use our combined strength to further build our Tasmanian position," he said.

Link to story

Well I personally was not expecting any action from zinifex till early next year.
Looks like they are trying to strengthen their position from possible takeover offers.

adobee · 17 December 2007

Is zinifex in a trading halt now or is just nothing trading ?? I am a bit confused I cant see any trading halt announcment but the bid is $14 and the offer is $12 ... ??

DionM · 17 December 2007

Interesting. A little left of field but makes sense I guess for AGM to be brought into the ZFX family.

I own AGM as well as ZFX so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

DionM · 17 December 2007

adobee said:
Is zinifex in a trading halt now or is just nothing trading ?? I am a bit confused I cant see any trading halt announcment but the bid is $14 and the offer is $12 ... ??

If it looks like that then I'd hazard a guess it's in a trading halt.

AGM is also looking the same, and given the takeover offer on the table, I guess both are in a halt.

adobee · 17 December 2007

Market doesnt look to be reacting to positively to the announcment.. I am hoping this may bring any potential playes looking at zinifex out of the woodwork to make a move..

overule · 17 December 2007

It will be a while before markets take this announcement as positive. Expect downwards SP for a while.

justjohn · 17 December 2007

adobee said:
Market doesnt look to be reacting to positively to the announcment.. I am hoping this may bring any potential playes looking at zinifex out of the woodwork to make a move..

Dont worry the market isn't acting positively on anything today:fan so dont get too despaired there's always tomorrow

ZFX - Zinifex Limited

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency