Z1P & APT Prediction Competition

[barney]

I tend to agree with you. APT looks much better on the charts but to be honest a look at benchmarks such as PE, EPS etc and neither look particularly attractive IMHO.

That was kind of my gut feeling "MA" but with nothing concrete to support my gut

I don't like posting negative views on Stocks others own because in the end I get just as many wrong as right and certainly don't want to create any unwanted indecision for other punters (not that they should listen to me anyway)

My main reason apart from the above, in posting low SP's for both Stocks was the "end of June" time of year. If we are going to get a healthy correction, I suspect June will be as good a place as any to see that eventuate.... All guesswork really

 

[qldfrog]

I tend to agree with you. APT looks much better on the charts but to be honest a look at benchmarks such as PE, EPS etc and neither look particularly attractive IMHO.

But but but we are in a new paradox...rol

 

[MovingAverage]

.... All guesswork really

I think it’s easier to pick this weekend’s lotto numbers than pick a stock’s price six months out

 

[fergee]

But but but we are in a new paradox...rol

I lol(ed) when I read this. Its true the traditional metrics are not how a stock like this is valued instead its customer uptake growth rates, average revenue per user, net promoter score, total addressable market, potential network effects etc.

The current valuations all seem a bit pie in the sky to me they get extrapolated so far out into the future it is hard to take seriously as a true investment and not just a spec trade.

Nice company Z1P but I would only invest in it when it was valued a lot more reasonably and I have a feeling that would only happen in a 2008 style scenario. But I would defo still trade it if I saw a set up I liked

 

[qldfrog]

But I would defo still trade it if I saw a set up I liked

Same here, slave to the system

 

[frugal.rock]

"There once was a man from Narse,
his balls were made of brass,
when he jumped, his balls clunked,
and lightning shot out his ar$e..."

-Unknown (from back of a Thredbo toilet door... circa 1985)
F.Rock
Woops, supposed to be in the joke thread...or is it?

 

[MovingAverage]

"There once was a man from Narse,
his balls were made of brass,
when he jumped, his balls clunked,
and lightning shot out his ar$e..."

-Unknown (from back of a Thredbo toilet door... circa 1985)
F.Rock
Woops, supposed to be in the joke thread...or is it?

Now there’s something I miss...little ditties on the back of toilet doors. Shame nobody writes on the back of toilet doors anymore

 

[frugal.rock]

I'm not arguing with that FR … but I expect $3.20 will get retested … Its just the vibe

Maybe your "vibe" needs new batteries barney ? buzz buzz

With the rising volume over the last few days, I expect Z1P is building to something, a last few days before SP hike perhaps?
My interpretation is (based off following closely for 6 months) a run up to ~$4.00, a retrace to 3.70 or even 3.50 if it breaks 3.70 properly, then a proper run as seen in October.
I am still waiting for the zipbiz (lending to small-medium business) announcements, which could be the catalyst for the above scenario.

Westpac hold nearly 15% of Z1P, and provide a dept funding facility.
NAB also have their fingers in the pie somehow?, more research required on my part.
So, the big 4, so to speak, are in the BNPL space.
HSBC have a small % stake in afterpay, which may equate to similar money as Westpac in zip, afterpay having a much greater cap (7x zip?) testing my dodgy memory here, please do your own research.

@barney , the main reason for this thread is to gauge opinions.
As said by the learned participants, the price prediction part is hard to guess.
If you have negative thoughts on a stock you know I hold, I prefer you share those opinions, pretty sure everyone wants to hear them also.

It's great that the discussion kicked off, and I am honoured by @tech/a commitment to post some charts at some stage, thanks in anticipation,
(a couple of prices predictions would be great also, I know you are not interested in the comp, however, maybe you have a charity, benevolent association, @Joe Blow ASF legal fund etc you could nominate as award recipient?)
Would also be honoured if @peter2 and @Skate could join in, time permitting.
Muchas gracias all.
F.Rock

 

[tech/a]

Honored?
Appreciative is fine.
Joe would be my choice if I had to make one.

My apprehension and it maybe others is that I don't wish to be involved in someones search for Analysis on their holdings or proposed holdings
$100 is cheap for us!

 

[barney]

My apprehension and it maybe others is that I don't wish to be involved in someones search for Analysis on their holdings or proposed holdings $100 is cheap for us!

I don't see anything sinister at all to be honest but I respect other's decision to "play" or not for whatever reason.

@frugal.rock has been a volume poster recently and always adds content and humour on many threads.

The concept of offering a small prize to increase/generate some friendly banter and traffic to the site seems a clever concept …. maybe I'm missing something?

If Frugal is fortunate enough to derive something useful from other's analysis, I'd see that as a positive result for everyone involved especially since 50% of our opinions are wrong over 100% of the time

ps Good luck if you are following mine

 

[Knobby22]

If Frugal is fortunate enough to derive something useful from other's analysis, I'd see that as a positive result for everyone involved especially since 50% of our opinions are wrong over 100% of the time

ps Good luck if you are following mine

Yes, and here is my comments expanded as promised, but only quickly. Note: 50% chance they are wrong.

So just quickly.

1. Circumstances

Price has been held down by raising, then Austrac review and then delayed SPP.
I think once SPP is over price will rise along original lines (bit of charting useful here).

2. Sophisticated buying
Very keen buying by sophisticated US investors in the raisings and good prices. They are not dumb clucks.

3. Value analysis.
If you look at the growth it is phenomenal. Fast growth like this stops the company being profitable as they are always signing on new clients that only really become profitable when they return. Retention rate is very important. Hope and expect to see a doubling of customers from 2019.
I expect the USA to keep increasing quickly (I note Steggle which is much smaller announced pretty good growth) and Australia to become clearly profitable now that growth is slowing and users are onboard.

Of course the danger is that growth slows or the users don't return in the USA or UK like they have in Oz. The plus is that growth in the USA in particular exceeds expected.

We are talking a business here with already nearly $5 billion a half worth of transactions with a long term margin of imo of 2% after costs. That's $100 mil profit, increasing every half. I note Bell are predicting $15 billion a half in two and a half years based on expected growth!


- With Z1P I'm just guessing. To me it's a little bank that is run extremely well in the consumer space but quite different from APT.

 

[frugal.rock]

Honored?
Appreciative is fine.
Joe would be my choice if I had to make one.

My apprehension and it maybe others is that I don't wish to be involved in someones search for Analysis on their holdings or proposed holdings
$100 is cheap for us!

Fairy 'nuff and to the point.
I'm just a porper in a torpor.
Should point out that there's $200
if you managed to jag both...
It's a shame you don't wish to be involved, but I get it.
I've gone through many emotions after reading your post before posting this.
First came spite, then jealousy, then complacency, a bit of self disgust, then realisation... realisation that I can recognise these emotions, and that's something for me to work on with trading. Recognition and realisation...then self control...
Then that's where the honour bit still applies, don't feel right to me only being appreciative of the input from someone with your expertise!
You've been in the game for x years, I'm pushing a bun out of the oven with 9 months.
It's been emotional.
F.Rock
PS; I am a little confused if you were still going to throw in a chart, or not.
Not under any obligation, except the moral code of gentleman.

 

[tech/a]

Will chart them when I get the time.
To be honest the only charts I’ve seen are
Those others have posted on them.

Takes time which is just not in abundance right now

 

[frugal.rock]

@barney
Mate, I appreciate your words and the warmth behind them. It's not often that people go into bat for others, anymore. Times have changed.

Moving along,
The entry time date has slipped past.
Thanks for the entries and I appreciate the banter.
If anyone else wants to enter, IMO, it's still ok say until end of today, however it's also up to other entrants opinions, as more entries reduces the odds for others, so the other entrants would need to approve this notion.
I don't think we got 10 entries... will stick with the spirit and the "prizes" gifts will still be honoured.
F.Rock

 

[frugal.rock]

Takes time which is just not in abundance right now

I won't hold you to it, I know time is a precious commodity these days, myself included.
With a bit of luck, maybe the stocks show up in your setup scans one day and then it might happen in due course anyway. Can only hope.
Cheers.
F.Rock

 

[barney]

Mate, I appreciate your words and the warmth behind them. It's not often that people go into bat for others, anymore. Times have changed.

No problem FR. People with good intentions should be supported

 

[barney]

If anyone else wants to enter, IMO, it's still ok say until end of today. I don't think we've got 10 entries... will stick with the spirit and the "prizes" gifts will still be honoured.

Maybe close entries at the end of trade tomorrow (end of week) Might get a couple more entries in?

To be honest I'm surprised more punters have not gotten involved

With @Joe Blow permission … ??

I still have not collected my prize from last months Comp and I'd like to add it to the winners prize if ok?

If the Winner manages to pick both Stocks within 10 cents or less of their selections, they get the extra $50.

Obviously the chances of doing that are fairly remote … so if not won, the $50 is donated back to the ASF defence fund.

Is that OK Joe? ( I think it's a lay down misere' you'll get the 50)

 

[aus_trader]

Your calculations of odds are really good, if not better than a bookmaker barney

I also think end of the week is a good cut-off to let the last punters have a dab at the APT/Z1P prize money.

 

[Knobby22]

People aren't going to look at this thread if they're not interested in these companies, Frugal should set up a thread called Share Price Guess Competition - Win Money with little work, start with the prize money and then go into the detail.--maybe with a table showing the present picks.

 

[Joe Blow]

With @Joe Blow permission … ??

I still have not collected my prize from last months Comp and I'd like to add it to the winners prize if ok?

If the Winner manages to pick both Stocks within 10 cents or less of their selections, they get the extra $50.

Obviously the chances of doing that are fairly remote … so if not won, the $50 is donated back to the ASF defence fund.

Is that OK Joe? ( I think it's a lay down misere' you'll get the 50)

That is most certainly OK. You have my permission.