Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Z1P & APT Prediction Competition

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fergee said:
I just realised knobby was in already, I should have read back through the posts again :D

I forgot @qldfrog @Padowan and @jbocker !

Come on guys get in there lets make this interesting!
your :2twocents for the possibility of a shopping spree on @frugal.rock :laugh:
Click to expand...

Ok I have will have a crack...
APT $32.23
ZIP $5.23

I don't hold either, and have little knowledge of them. Counting on very modest holding pattern in APT even after a good rise today; and a fair rise in more affordable ZIP.

Thanks @frugal.rock for the comp and thanks @fergee for the comp prompt
 
So I've looked into my crystal ball and what I'm seeing is:

APT opening at around $36.5 on 26 June 2020. APT has a nice BB squeeze at the moment so I think we'll see it easily rise to around $34 where it will probably encounter some resistance given it's sideways movement at around this level during Nov/Dec last year. I think it will move through this resistance level and approach the $36.5 mark which is around its all time high zone which it reached around Sept / Oct last year. While I'm more of a chart guy and not really into following fundamentals I note APT are due to release their H1 results late Feb and based on Market Index's most recent broker consensus data 10 of 12 brokers have APT as a buy so I'm using this to support my hope there shouldn't be any H1 result surprises that would put my $36.5 guess at risk.

As for Z1P, this I'm finding a bit more difficult to predict based on charts so I'll have to dabble in the dark arts of fundamentals which I really suck at. Z1P has been in a solid downtrend for many months but they have just released quarter ending Dec results that seem respectable. So I think these recent results will see them move up to around $3.80 in a lead up to their H1 results due for release late Feb. I really don't like the look of the charts on Z1P and I just can't see this stock picking up much momentum even if their H1 results meet market expectations so I tipping that Z1P will open on 26 June 2020 at around $4.00.

Disclosure: I don't hold any positions in APT or Z1P.
 
Fantastic to see some competition coming in from the new entries.

But I am wondering if there is some price manipulation with Z1P. Before the announcement the stock dropped down like a rock and could it be due to institutions etc buying the stock on the cheap by pushing the price down as @barney suggested earlier ? As soon as the Quarterly is out the stock comes roaring back ! Z1P is not the first to be manipulated, see my comments on APT manipulation in it's early days below:

I am not well researched in APT except I was mad as hell when a bearish AFR written article and their associated crooks took out the early punters when it was trading around $7's which took the stock all the way down to the $5's. How far it's risen since then, and I wander if the punters had the conviction to get back on :(

I've seen very high stock valuations/price predictions for APT by @Knobby22 , @qldfrog and perhaps a few other members. Anyway, any reasoning for these predictions of more than double the price from where APT is trading now, or just guesses if I may ask?
 
aus_trader said:
Fantastic to see some competition coming in from the new entries.

But I am wondering if there is some price manipulation with Z1P. Before the announcement the stock dropped down like a rock and could it be due to institutions etc buying the stock on the cheap by pushing the price down as @barney suggested earlier ? As soon as the Quarterly is out the stock comes roaring back ! Z1P is not the first to be manipulated, see my comments on APT manipulation in it's early days below:

I am not well researched in APT except I was mad as hell when a bearish AFR written article and their associated crooks took out the early punters when it was trading around $7's which took the stock all the way down to the $5's. How far it's risen since then, and I wander if the punters had the conviction to get back on :(

I've seen very high stock valuations/price predictions for APT by @Knobby22 , @qldfrog and perhaps a few other members. Anyway, any reasoning for these predictions of more than double the price from where APT is trading now, or just guesses if I may ask?
Click to expand...
Austrader, i see a market going up overall with potential for takeover of these type of companies by bigger groups: banks and O/S financial groups
I think afterpay could benefit from this more than zip so
Moderate but decent increase for zip and sharp run up for afterpay
I do not hold. So really mostly guess
 
qldfrog said:
Austrader, i see a market going up overall with potential for takeover of these type of companies by bigger groups: banks and O/S financial groups
I think afterpay could benefit from this more than zip so
Moderate but decent increase for zip and sharp run up for afterpay
I do not hold. So really mostly guess
Click to expand...

OK, thanks qldfrog. I'll be keeping an eye on it. It's had a nice up day today.

Knobby22 said:
austrader

I don't do charting but have 3 reasons for a higher price,
1. Circumstances
2. Sophisticated buying
3. Value analysis.

Will explain each when next on my PC. Too hard on the mobile +going to bed.
Click to expand...

Cheers Knobby22, look forward to your thinking behind these points mentioned.
 
For those interested in Z1P, around 10 minutes ago, a large volume of around 220,000 shares were bought up @3.68 in one hit... over $800k worth.
Would be interesting to see how that volume blip is treated by the various systems in play?
What does it all mean?!
IMO, the psychology is now clearly bullish.
F.Rock
 
qldfrog said:
Austrader, i see a market going up overall with potential for takeover of these type of companies by bigger groups: banks and O/S financial groups
Click to expand...

I don't claim to know anything about these type of companies, but I do have a question mark as to whether banks will move into this space by acquiring the likes of APT, Z1P etc. From what I understand of these companies (and I may well be completely wrong on this) but don't they operate in the unsecured high risk credit space? Isn't that something the banks are trying to avoid these days? Also, if some of the bigger banks wanted to enter this space surely they could easily move into that space with all of the resources they have? I'm not saying you're logic is wrong on banks looking to acquire the likes of APT or Z1P it's more of my complete ignorance of the space they're playing in.
 
MovingAverage said:
I don't claim to know anything about these type of companies, but I do have a question mark as to whether banks will move into this space by acquiring the likes of APT, Z1P etc. From what I understand of these companies (and I may well be completely wrong on this) but don't they operate in the unsecured high risk credit space? Isn't that something the banks are trying to avoid these days? Also, if some of the bigger banks wanted to enter this space surely they could easily move into that space with all of the resources they have? I'm not saying you're logic is wrong on banks looking to acquire the likes of APT or Z1P it's more of my complete ignorance of the space they're playing in.
Click to expand...
to be honest, I have no real clue, I think after pay could become bigger of the 2 and attract big fish attention.
You are right about the fact any big bank could do it, but it could be a chinese bank opening front in Australia, etc
time will tell
I do not own or intend to unless part of my systematic entries
 
Also Banks are doing a similar thing to facilitate BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) schemes via Credit Cards. They've been doing it for decades, charging late fees and exorbitant 19% interest rates on the purchases that were made on the Credit Cards if the balance is not cleared by due date.

No wonder the banks are so profitable borrowing from RBA/internationally at around 1% and lending that to Credit Card customers to go on shopping sprees and pile on other expenses, enticed further by Frequent Flyer and other bonus point schemes then charging them 19% for not clearing the outstanding balance by due date. So let's see, the bank makes roughly 19% - 1% = 18% on their money. Nice while they are rolling in the dough, but I think people are waking up and going to other places to get their credit cheaply including companies like Z1P/APT to make their purchases on credit and pay it off later.
 

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