Z1P & APT Prediction Competition

[barney]

Thanks Barney.
So are you going to wait and see a bit before you enter

Yeah might just keep the lid on the powder for a day or two

 

[aus_trader]

Good luck with fires FR

Re Z1P … I'm on the fence at the moment … In other words I have no idea. Looks an each way bet in the short term

The mess on the chart reflects my indecision

View attachment 99438

Lot of work gone into the chart analysis @barney, nice to see the consolidation channel in play at the moment...

 

[barney]

Lot of work gone into the chart analysis @barney, nice to see the consolidation channel in play at the moment...

Yeah, I think the more I looked at it the more unsure I became

It still feels a bit indecisive to me given its already had a good run up in mid October.

If the current Support line holds no problem. Would not like to see that breached with any gusto.

On the flip side a wise man once said, never sell a double bottom in an uptrend!

 

[frugal.rock]

So, some terms of endearment;
Selling pressure, consolidation, fence sitting...
So with selling pressure, when the SP is holding, this indicates support.
Write that bit 2 hours ago. Wind turned. Smoke and embers ash 2 minutes later...wow. There's a few break outs.... shite

 

[fergee]

On the flip side a wise man once said, never sell a double bottom in an uptrend!
View attachment 99458

I was at the pub with my mate once and he told me don't just check out the nice double bottoms you have to look out for the ugly head and shoulders too.

 

[aus_trader]

I was at the pub with my mate once and he told me don't just check out the nice double bottoms you have to look out for the ugly head and shoulders too.

Thanks for the reminder, you can get hypnotized looking at the bottoms but I am now starting to see an obscure Head & Shoulders as well on the chart above from barney.

 

[fergee]

This is what I am seeing for Z1P on the charts using the weekly. I think a pretty serious top has been put in at the 5.80 region which was also the 1.61 fib extension target. It coincided with negative RSI divergence dropped and broke the trend line from the start of 2019. The important level @barney pointed out is key this next week, if we see that break then $3 is on the cards. Just my 2c

 

[bigdog]

APT $60
-- own and made my first AFTERPAY purchase in December, very easy to use APP on phone
-- have been to their past two meetings in Melbourne and like what I hear
-- Afterpay is making good progress on its international expansion strategy
-- In UK already gained a solid start.
-- very confident that they can deliver in Australia and overseas

Z1P $10
-- own and confident that they can deliver based upon VG recent reports

 

[frugal.rock]

Made a partial exit on Z1P today after seeing the bottom of Sezzles break down and jumped onto it.
Sentiment from above posts echoed through my head, along with the fact that I knew a retrace to circa 3.20 was probable... Z1P has taken a liking to following the market recently I noticed. Often wasn't the case.
Watching the scenario closely!
Cheers.
F.Rock

 

[barney]

Just trying to piece a couple of things together with this given the increase in Volume at the low of the short term range.

I am now of the view that the current move to the lows is a Squeeze by the deep pockets brigade.

The recent $60 million cap raise to Instos/Pros was oversubscribed at $3.70 so there are now a lot of large share holders at that level.

If the SP is pressured to fall substantially under that cap raise price, a lot of those shares will find their way to market from weaker hands/smaller investors under the pump etc etc.

I now expect the "important level" lows to be tested/broken to the downside while the deep pockets mop up the pain and see how many shares they can gather at bargain prices.

How low? No idea ... The Volume will tell the story from here.

Might pierce the lows and reverse sharply if the Sellers stand their ground or if the DP's are happy to simply target the retail traders (less available Stock to muster). The lower it gets pushed the more panic is likely though.

Any more than 10% under the CR price (ie $3.33 or less might see some sharp volatility develop)

The trader in me says its probably a good time to start accumulating while the big end of town are digging holes

Long post sorry …. but I wanted to explain the rationale behind my babblings

 

[frugal.rock]

I am now of the view that the current move to the lows is a Squeeze by the deep pockets brigade.

I now expect the "important level" lows to be tested/broken to the downside while the deep pockets mop up the pain and see how many shares they can gather at bargain prices.

How low? No idea ... The Volume will tell the story from here.

The trader in me says its probably a good time to start accumulating while the big end of town are digging holes

Long post sorry ….

A long post is a good post when full of gem's! Better than a long face...
A smaller range today, bigger volume. All down. Sqquueeeezzz
The deep pockets brigade indeed!
Am interested to see the short report for today, Fridays was around 300k.
F.Rock

 

[frugal.rock]

Just trying to piece a couple of things together with this given the increase in Volume at the low of the short term range.

I am now of the view that the current move to the lows is a Squeeze by the deep pockets brigade.

The recent $60 million cap raise to Instos/Pros was oversubscribed at $3.70 so there are now a lot of large share holders at that level.

If the SP is pressured to fall substantially under that cap raise price, a lot of those shares will find their way to market from weaker hands/smaller investors under the pump etc etc.

I now expect the "important level" lows to be tested/broken to the downside while the deep pockets mop up the pain and see how many shares they can gather at bargain prices.

How low? No idea ... The Volume will tell the story from here.

Might pierce the lows and reverse sharply if the Sellers stand their ground or if the DP's are happy to simply target the retail traders (less available Stock to muster). The lower it gets pushed the more panic is likely though.

Any more than 10% under the CR price (ie $3.33 or less might see some sharp volatility develop)

The trader in me says its probably a good time to start accumulating while the big end of town are digging holes

Long post sorry …. but I wanted to explain the rationale behind my babblings

Alrighty Barney!
Z1P seems to be following your script to the letter!
I'm now all out. Hoping for a nice re-entry somewhere. Any current thoughts on it from anyone would be largely appreciated. The work car decided to break down and not start this morning... very timely!
Cheers.
F.Rock

 

[aus_trader]

Looks like @barney got this analysed well and unfortunately on a big down day today Z1P looks to be breaking down the support levels that was drawn.

 

[Boggo]

I'm now all out. Hoping for a nice re-entry somewhere. Any current thoughts on it from anyone would be largely appreciated. The work car decided to break down and not start this morning... very timely!
Cheers.
F.Rock

My although I am out.

Nothing much to go on other than Fib retracement and area of recent lows.
Could be looking at 2.70's to 2.80's at a rough guess.

(click to expand)

 

[frugal.rock]

Nice chart @Boggo
Thanks for taking the time, much obliged.
Did you want to have a stab at the "comp" figures?
Cheers.
F.Rock

 

[barney]

Looks like @barney got this analysed well and unfortunately on a big down day today Z1P looks to be breaking down the support levels that was drawn.

Funnily enough Aus, Even if I may be close to the money on this one, I take little enjoyment from it dropping, as I know a few here hold ….. the price action a few days back just didn't sit quite right and it's playing out that way at the moment.

That $60 million cap raise at $3.70 is still ringing in my ears though …. Big Players are happy to use time to their advantage to take we smaller punters to the wall …. There will be a time to accumulate this and the reversal will likely be strong (assuming fundamentals remain ok) ….

It all depends on how long it takes the "players" to squeeze the rest ….. sometimes takes a month sometimes a year or two ... Hopefully we can decipher the Volume v Price as it happens

Alrighty Barney! Z1P seems to be following your script to the letter! I'm now all out.

I'm glad you are out with your shirt … hopefully the SZL profits eased the pain a bit

 

[frugal.rock]

Well, Sezzle eased a bit more pain today.
Nearly jumped ship back to Z1P today also... but not convinced it's finished it's circa 3.20 saga despite today's efforts. The 7 cent gap up on opening is nothing greatly out of the ordinary, however some good volume on the spring.
With today's market smashing up and gold being dumped, I want to see it going up against the market trend.
Am hoping for a re-entry below 3.30 but however, like you say @barney, there's the big boys playing with it.
I watched it climb ~60% in October over ~2 weeks, in disbelief!
ASX shorts report yesterday circa 900,000 that's somewhere around 16% of yesterday's volume...
F.Rock

 

[Boggo]

Yes, interesting behaviour today.
Didn't see that coming, not ready to trust it just yet but definitely a relief for those still holding.

 

[fergee]

Yes, interesting behaviour today.

Very interesting indeed!
Z1P just jumped back over @barney "line of importance" Im wondering if this break down is a head fake back to the upside or a double head fake if it breaks back down below the resistance line again. Volume will be a key clue here. If I had to put my money on it I would say it will be a double head fake and a continuation of the medium term trend down to ~$3. Just my

 

[aus_trader]

Very interesting indeed!
Z1P just jumped back over @barney "line of importance" Im wondering if this break down is a head fake back to the upside or a double head fake if it breaks back down below the resistance line again. Volume will be a key clue here. If I had to put my money on it I would say it will be a double head fake and a continuation of the medium term trend down to ~$3. Just my

Yes very hard to predict at the moment...