XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

>Apocalypto< · 19 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Tech/a

great to see you made this topic as i became positive about the market just after the sell off.

i am now very bullish medium term, just hanging around and waiting for confirmation to reopen long positions over the xjo, i mostly look at a weekly chart, watch the lead up on the daily. However on the daily it still looks weak, even though it is in a short term rise.

I need a confirmation on the weekly to sell it to me.

great to see you and Tom Scollon are positive, but he did screw up big time on his crude out look in the other month he said 80$ and it went to $55

that's the market for you!

I am reading more and more doom in the US economy wonder what effect and how quickly that could pressure things on our market??

tech/a · 19 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well I'm hardly bullish.
Just pointing out some "Counter Intelligence".
To me nothing has altered from the Analysis which says we are in a corrective phase. If I was trading short term I'd be short (Having closed JML today).

Other than my Longterm portfolio which is long---I'm letting that play out,thats what its designed for.

As Waves has poined out experience in these patterns and the way they play out tells him from his analysis that all is normal for a corrective move---a long one.

Note the Volume today was VERY low.No buying pressure here!!
The first chart is a VSA chart also note the amount of Negative alerts Red triangles and rectangles---this is a background of strong negative sentiment---proven by the negative nature of volume and range.Its a warning not to be overlooked.

This chart is a combination of analysis overlaid with that which we are watching. It really is setting up for something and from what I CURRENTLY see its not looking biased toward a continuation---but that COULD alter.

Waves Metastock inverts charts as well and agree it can have a great effect on someone like me who is predominantly long---I would ask--Would I buy this?? my answer would be---not yet.(From the inverted chart).

Sean K · 19 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Tech, Ref the second chart, why can't it be a corrective 3 wave ABC? SK

tech/a · 19 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Kennas it could be.

Julia · 19 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

theasxgorilla said:
Horrible situation to be in

I doubled my position at confirmation of the higher low back in early Feb too. It's one of those trades...if I hadn't been shaken loose, it would have been a glorious 'home run'. I'd be sitting here now, knowing that any drawdown situation I WAS experiencing due to this pull back on the XJO/XAO had since been offset by one single unpredictable event

Thanks for the support ALL.

Gorilla,
Sorry, it was a bit unkind. I'm genuinely sorry you missed this bonus.

It just seems to me that you techies often rubbish the buy and hold investors and repeatedly insist on sticking to your tight stop losses.
I'm not knocking that approach - hell, I know nothing about short term trading (my one attempt was a dismal failure) - but sometimes it's good to see an example where the simple buy and hold of quality companies can be seen to pay off in something more than just the unspectacular but steady growth, plus consistent dividends.

My apologies for the apparent gloating: I suspect it was largely due to relief at today's news, after thinking I'd made a mistake in adding to my holding recently.

Julia

MichaelD · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Julia said:
It just seems to me that you techies often rubbish the buy and hold investors and repeatedly insist on sticking to your tight stop losses.
I'm not knocking that approach - hell, I know nothing about short term trading (my one attempt was a dismal failure) - but sometimes it's good to see an example where the simple buy and hold of quality companies can be seen to pay off in something more than just the unspectacular but steady growth, plus consistent dividends.

Julia,

Yes, buy and hold does make money. It does this, however, by exploiting the overall upwards bias of the market (given a large enough time frame), not by way of the fundamental analysis before entry. Technical traders definitely unfairly disparage buy and hold, probably because of a need to justify activity which adds very little value.

However, using a stop loss whilst trading technically allows more sophisticated money management to be applied - the combination of letting one's winners run, cutting one's losses short and the resultant compounding of capital this allows makes money more effectively than buy and hold. The cost of this is lots of small losses along the way to greater wealth at the end of the game. It takes enormous conviction to engage the market this way as your entire being keeps screaming at you to do exactly the wrong thing.

It's purely and simply tilting the mathematics of engaging the market further in your favour that makes the money, not the method by which this tilting is achieved.

theasxgorilla · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Julia said:
Gorilla,
Sorry, it was a bit unkind. I'm genuinely sorry you missed this bonus.

It's okay. As I said to you in PM, I'm glad someone I know got to benefit.

Another value investing friend who had it on his radar never got a look in because even with the post Feb-28 weakness it still never reached his "good value" price.

In anycase, I find it hard to believe that BoQ hasn't had this on the cards for quite some time already. Whether they brought the announcement forward to capitalise on the share going ex-div and the shenanigans of Feb 28 I'll never know.

Got any other takeover/merger plays up your sleeve? PM me

Julia · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Thats all part of trading.
There is no Fundamental Or technical method that will indicate the possibility of a take over.
If your going to buy and hold then you have a chance that you will be holding when and if something like this arises.

As in the case I went through with you Julia sometime ago.
Given the information AT THE TIME decisions are made.

I imagine you are referring to either SUN or ZFX.
In both cases, I sold because I moved my focus from the long term to the short term, or ignored the fundamentals which hadn't changed in the case of ZFX.
In both cases, I regretted it by the next day, and still do, as both went on to new highs.

Julia

tech/a · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Are you still in them Julia?

Atomic5 · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

theasxgorilla said:
For a slightly different, albeit possibly clearer wave count...the Small Ordinaries.

Looks ominous...the correction may already be over.

Are the small cap miners taking a bit of a hit? The Small Cap All Ord indice is up but most small cap miners seem weak and volumes are low. Big miners doing well though and probably driving the market.

Julia · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
Are you still in them Julia?

No.

Julia

IFocus · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

So is TA telling you to buy or sell now?. What is it telling you? How are you trading the market today, tomorrow next month?.

Hi Doom
It can be confusing even for those that use some form of TA when the market changes its mood. Traders that use TA are trying to time the market and the key is always what’s your time frame and how applicable is to the market now / today. Ether stand aside or trade a different time frame but this takes skill and I have seen good traders get sucked into missing the change.

Back to the cash index and today’s XJO bar was interesting, I am still thinking its a correction although I time stopped out of my short position today I don’t currently hold longs will stand aside until the picture offers another low risk opportunity.

This is my current take

Dr Doom · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

IFocus said:
Hi Doom
It can be confusing even for those that use some form of TA when the market changes its mood. Traders that use TA are trying to time the market and the key is always what’s your time frame and how applicable is to the market now / today. Ether stand aside or trade a different time frame but this takes skill and I have seen good traders get sucked into missing the change.

Back to the cash index and today’s XJO bar was interesting, I am still thinking its a correction although I time stopped out of my short position today I don’t currently hold longs will stand aside until the picture offers another low risk opportunity.

This is my current take

Hello IFocus,
I guess the point I was trying to emphasize was that some markets, like this one, can turn on a knife edge & a strict adherence to TA could compromise firstly our positions & secondly our trading mantra. Anyway, each to their own.

With the XJO, I'm thinking that it was a very ordinary performance today even though it ended green. The initial surge failed to consolidate numerous times & every advance was squashed especially the 2.30 customary bounce. Have a look at CBA intraday for a complete lack of confidence. Looking like the US is the key again tonight for the housing starts figure.

DD

motorway · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Dr Doom said:
Hello IFocus,
I guess the point I was trying to emphasize was that some markets, like this one, can turn on a knife edge & a strict adherence to TA could compromise firstly our positions & secondly our trading mantra. Anyway, each to their own.

With the XJO, I'm thinking that it was a very ordinary performance today even though it ended green. The initial surge failed to consolidate numerous times & every advance was squashed especially the 2.30 customary bounce. Have a look at CBA intraday for a complete lack of confidence. Looking like the US is the key again tonight for the housing starts figure.

DD

What TA and Whose TA...
Prices form trends that are made up of waves

Waves last as they long as they gather a following..
Trends themselves unfold in their own time

Time = a process Time does not equal a slice of a clock..
All days are not equal ( all slices of time are not as important )

trends speed up and slow down... TIME speeds up and slows down

A cause that will produce an effect takes as long as it takes ..

The old fashioned ticker would ram this point home

I understand that the climatic day in 1987 contained a very broad top
As in time = activity

Nothing compared to the climatic day this time around

Prices travel in WAVES and waves have nothing to do with days or weeks
But actual activity..

If you are not in the time frame of the trend at that moment
It maybe looks like a Knifes edge

What you need is a chart that changes it's time frame with the speed of the trend ... Maybe then there are no discontinuities.. Only;

effort producing result

cause generating effect

demand overcoming and being overcome by supply

and waves generating and dispersing

Markets are a Dynamic process
If you produce a still life static picture

If you overlay a static model

If you chart the process in days and weeks ..

Then you have to keep that limitation in mind

motorway

Dr Doom · 20 March 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Ah thank you Master Po

Grasshopper

CanOz · 4 April 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
To the EVIDENCE.

But firstly some background which gave rise to the evidence.
Over the years Elliot Wave keeps re occuring as a major form of analysis when looking forward---Ive yet to see another presented (perhaps other than Frankee D's work).
There are and can be varying wave counts from practitioners with these counts all obeying the "Rules", this can also--probably more so--happen within Elliot Software.
Its extremely difficult for most to get their head around the way wave counts change and why---Beyond this discussion--but pertinent to the evidence.

If traders can accept the "Prove---disprove---prove---disprove" aspect of ALL analysis, explanation of the above becomes a lot clearer--I think.---not how and why but that it can and will. Only time will prove--or disprove the analysis---any analysis, even fundamental analysis.

The latest Edition of Advanced GET rolled up last week, it was during my investigation of the software that I found the following and "The Evidence".

Firstly GET labels all highest highs with a wave count---if the price moves up next day so does the wave count--retracements or corrective patterns/waves arent labelled until a complete A,B,C is confirmed.
No problems thats the dynamic nature of the Analysis.
GET also only labels 300 bars so some higher degree analysis will not be accurate as they take longer than 300 periods to complete---GET will "Make it fit"

To the XJO.
There is a COMPLETE count on the Weekly XJO chart showing a 5 wave completion in 3 degrees. 5 of 5 of 5
A culmination of many years and important I believe to this.

GET's Daily count has it in a wave 4 corrective phase. With a wave 5 to come.
If The weekly is correct (Yes I know you dont mix time frames) BUT with a 5-5-5 completion you'd expect the daily to confirm.

So what if a wave 5 did occur what would happen to the weekly count.
Basically very little all wave 5s would simply extend---wave count remains the same. Here are the possible projected wave 5 completions:

WEEKLY

DAILY

Back to the daily. Most wave 5s come from triangle patterns--currently we seem to have a triangle pattern emerging in this corrective phase.

For the current 5 wave pattern to fail we would need the wave 4 to extend lower than the top of wave 1 in the same degree---unlikley.

The above is purely a WHAT IF---its hypothetical---it is NOT PROVEN

CURRENT analysis presented by Elliot wave practitioners IS CURRENTLY PROVEN and until price action PROVES the CURRENT analysis to be incorrect it must be presumed to be correct.

Authorised by a Duck! Educational purposes only.

If we see new highs, this could play out. Certainly seems to agree with the bullish sentiment at the moment IMO.

Cheers,

tech/a · 4 April 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Well the initial analysis has now been proven as incorrect.
As such the analysis suggested as a possible alternative now is proven and until disproven holds the technical veiw using Elliot Analysis.

Still a very slight chance of a double top should give it a few points "Wiggle" room.
Almost have both legs over the fence!!

tech/a · 4 April 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

The silence on this thread is deafening.

Where are all the Duck shooters?

Kauri · 4 April 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
The silence on this thread is deafening.

Where are all the Duck shooters?

I thought that there was a moratorium on duck season in the east this year apart from Tassie
I haven't got the oxygen and mountaineering boots back on yet, but have got them ready. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more bungie type volatility before it settles down. Good call Tech.

>Apocalypto< · 4 April 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:
The silence on this thread is deafening.

Where are all the Duck shooters?

Ha ha ha

That is very funny Tech, thumbs up on the pic!

XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

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