XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

[Dr Doom]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

So is TA telling you to buy or sell now?. What is it telling you? How are you trading the market today, tomorrow next month?.

I was merely questioning the effectiveness of TA in this market, when even those who follow it are divided in what it is telling them. Not having a go at TA, just thinking that sometimes you may have to step back and have a look at the forest instead of the trees.

Atomic, we can discuss all opinions can't we, without denegrading/belittling an alternative view?

 

[CanOz]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Any trade taken ATM is higher risk, by my estimation.

You mean Gorilla, that any analysis atm has a higher probability of being wrong....the risk should be the same?

Cheers,

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

My technical analysis says this...the medium and longer term trend on the XAO is still up. I unloaded a single position from my medium term portfolio (BEN) a couple of weeks back because my stoploss was hit. I didn't want to sell, but as tech/a suggested, he didn't think I'd regret it going forward and looking at the price action of the last few days, I don't. A plan is a plan is a plan.

Short term my technical analysis says go short. And so I have...my bets are placed. If I'm wrong, I'll take it on the chin.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

You mean Gorilla, that any analysis atm has a higher probability of being wrong....the risk should be the same?

Cheers,

Yes. That is a better way of putting it.

You might actually get the direction of the market right...probabilities suggest to me that the market is going to move down further before it does anything else...but still get shaken out of your trades due to the volatility...and that sucks. It means you are going to chew through money (slippage, brokerage) just trying to get a trade to stick. So whilst each trade should continue to have the same fractional position sized %age risk exposure, the likelihood of getting shaken lose, then being forced to try and re-enter is high.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

ASX

Even Tech/a hiimself re-posted from another forum comments from an experienced system trader who advised that when price is below the short M/A yet still above the long, you are in essentially non-trading territory and you should not trade your signals...at least that is how I interpretted that post.

I did? I visit 2 forums here and Reefcap.
Sounds like a comment from Stevo,or even Jose,not me.The above can be a condition of entry to a system of course.

Doom

Two things.
For my longterm Portfolio's systems (3) the analysis has NO effect only the "blueprint" of the system designed around analysis.

Short term discretionary trading--I have one position JML its up slightly and telling me that its OK to hold.

Generally its telling me its a time of indecision.However if a trade presents itself I'll eveluate then on an individual basis.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

I did? I visit 2 forums here and Reefcap.
Sounds like a comment from Stevo,or even Jose,not me.The above can be a condition of entry to a system of course.

It was a brilliant post, which is why I remember:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6210&postcount=65

"First figure out the trend. There are several ways to do this
and they're all easy. On a weekly chart you can use a 10 and 40
week moving average. When the index of choice is above the 10 week
moving average the market is in an uptrend. When the index is in
between the 10 and 40 week moving average, it's whipping around,
consolidating, and screwing you out of money. That's what it's doing
in there. When it's below the 40 week moving average it's in a down
trend. That's the easiest way to define things."

This combined with the fact that corrective moves are more difficult to count make this a really tough (and/or stupid) time to be taking trades. In anycase, my bets are placed.

 

[nizar]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Yeh i remember reading that post it was GOLD!

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Ah yes.---too good to be one of my original posts.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

For a slightly different, albeit possibly clearer wave count...the Small Ordinaries.

Looks ominous...the correction may already be over.

 

[Atomic5]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Looks ominous...the correction may already be over.

Ominous and over? Is that good or bad?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Ominous and over? Is that good or bad?

Depends...are you long or short?

 

[Atomic5]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Long I think.
Particular stocks ....

What do you mean by your chart is the question?
I'm not a chart person ... obviously.

 

[Julia]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

My technical analysis says this...the medium and longer term trend on the XAO is still up. I unloaded a single position from my medium term portfolio (BEN) a couple of weeks back because my stoploss was hit. I didn't want to sell, but as tech/a suggested, he didn't think I'd regret it going forward and looking at the price action of the last few days, I don't. A plan is a plan is a plan.

Gorilla,

Do you really feel good today about having unloaded BEN with its price rise today???

Julia

 

[macca]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Aww, Julia don't be cruel..........................

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Thats all part of trading.
There is no Fundamental Or technical method that will indicate the possibility of a take over.
If your going to buy and hold then you have a chance that you will be holding when and if something like this arises.

As in the case I went through with you Julia sometime ago.
Given the information AT THE TIME decisions are made.

 

[reece55]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Thats all part of trading.
There is no Fundamental Or technical method that will indicate the possibility of a take over.
If your going to buy and hold then you have a chance that you will be holding when and if something like this arises.

As in the case I went through with you Julia sometime ago.
Given the information AT THE TIME decisions are made.

Completely agree with Tech/a here........

ASXG, even though you missed out on todays premium and you are probably thinking of how sweet it would have been to have that gain.......

To me, the implementation of a thorough plan, if you are a technical trader, is the only way to succeed in the long run. So whilst it lost you money in the short term, long term following this plan will hold you in good stead in the long run. I remember doing this with Qantas pre the M?BL et al bid - I kick myself, but it was in accordance with my trading plan. I mean I had those things at 3.37!!!! Ahhhhh.....

Cheers

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Gorilla,

Do you really feel good today about having unloaded BEN with its price rise today???

Julia

Horrible situation to be in

I doubled my position at confirmation of the higher low back in early Feb too. It's one of those trades...if I hadn't been shaken loose, it would have been a glorious 'home run'. I'd be sitting here now, knowing that any drawdown situation I WAS experiencing due to this pull back on the XJO/XAO had since been offset by one single unpredictable event

Thanks for the support ALL.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

ASX

BUGGA!!

 

[MichaelD]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Do you really feel good today about having unloaded BEN with its price rise today???

That's trading. Preservation of capital is the first goal, not profits. The profits come as a result of good trading, not as a result of chance events.

I wonder how fundamentalists would feel about holding MBP on 21-Feb-2007 when the technical indicators were all pointing to a prompt exit stage left for some time before?

I know whose pain would be worse...

 

[wayneL]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Horrible situation to be in

I doubled my position at confirmation of the higher low back in early Feb too. It's one of those trades...if I hadn't been shaken loose, it would have been a glorious 'home run'. I'd be sitting here now, knowing that any drawdown situation I WAS experiencing due to this pull back on the XJO/XAO had since been offset by one single unpredictable event

Thanks for the support ALL.

We remember the ones we missed more than the ones we caught