XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

theasxgorilla · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

finnsk said:
Have been reading these kind of threads with interest, there is as many opinions as there is members.

Exactly...and the only infallible truth in amongst it all is that nobody knows what will happen next. Even after today though...based on where price, MA and support levels are, I'm still not inclined to call this a collapse...yet.

wayneL · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

theasxgorilla said:
Exactly...and the only infallible truth in amongst it all is that nobody knows what will happen next. Even after today though...based on where price, MA and support levels are, I'm still not inclined to call this a collapse...yet.

No, taking a few steps back and the chart is undamaged. But there I detect a shifting perception, as others noted above... and the risks are far more obvious now...

As discussed in other threads, a 1987 style crash is a very low probability because of regulatory and CB interference in the market. It won't "crash".

But if we don't get a new high within the next 3-4 months, I doubt we'll see one for several years.

Nobody know what happens next, but it sure is fun speculating on it.

theasxgorilla · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

EZZA said:
anyone with an idea of where they believe support will begin to form again?

In the very short term probably about where price stopped today. Europe seems to be falling heavily, playing catchup after bouncing yesterday. Inspite of the bearish bar in the US last night, it also stopped on support.

Futher falls to around 5921 maybe?

Still, if there is enough fear out there and the US continues its fall, then 5775 on the XAO can't be out of the question.

dhukka · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Stop_the_clock said:
Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!

Hi STC, I was just interested in how glad you are being fully invested after today's little interlude?

Lachlan6 · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

For me the key support is now the 200 Day EMA. This MA has supported the market incredibly well since the beginnings of the bull market in 2003. See the bounces off this level in 2005 and 2006 indicatating the strength of the trend. Hence if this level is broken strongly, then I think we may have more serious issues with the market. So far though, its hanging on as the MA is around 5935. Very interesting times ahead. A very important night to say the understatement of the year, on Wall St.

If this level is broken, just put up a few levels as possible supports and shown the breakout through the second highest degree Fann Line region and level.

Julia · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

dhukka said:
Hi STC, I was just interested in how glad you are being fully invested after today's little interlude?

Ah yes.

Smurf1976 · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

chops_a_must said:
By my reckoning 5900 on both the XAO and XJO are absolutely critical. But from my view, the energy sector is doing rather well. Albeit without WPL...

Energy ought to be doing well given that oil's at record prices and, highly significant IMO, is there without any major supply disruption as a "trigger". All goes reasonably well and we still get $77 oil.

But my fairly large portfolio of energy stocks went down 4.6% today. Individual stocks ranged from one at zero change to a few over 9% down today alone. None of them went up.

Now, oil's hitting records even with just about everything going right for supply but my energy stocks get hammered. Someone's taking quite a bit of money out of the markets in general IMO.

Looking from my "big picture" perspective, this is more a case of a financial market fall rather than a stock market fall IMO. Bonds, currencies, commodities, stocks - all are pretty volatile at the moment. IMO real estate is about to experience much the same as this surely has to have some impacts on ability to buy.

BentRod · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Nobody know what happens next, but it sure is fun speculating on it.

Certainly is, gets the adrenalin flowing thats for sure.
And I'm only runnin off the dailies...lol

BentRod · 1 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Julia said:
Ah yes.

It's like he said, going up of coarse.

PFFFTT....in smoke

theasxgorilla · 2 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Smurf1976 said:
IMO real estate is about to experience much the same as this surely has to have some impacts on ability to buy.

I prefer to think about it like this. Over 4 years of stellar returns in the sharemarket. Many people leveraging into the sharemarket with margin loans, often tied to houses that went up during the property boom. People cash in their shares, even after the last couple of weeks price falls they're still well in profit, and what do they have? Equity! Property markets are reputed to be going up again in many areas around the country. Thats where I'd be looking for the money to flow to.

You can wait for the dip...but I reckon the property dip will lag any sharemarket dip by a couple of years, at least.

Don't forget, a sharemarket drop does not mean a problem with the economy. It doesn't translate directly or immediately to people losing their jobs or foreclosing their houses. In fact I suspect many people were riding this as long as it could be ridden and they'll unwind their market and debt exposure then look for new opportunities to leverage their capital into.

Smurf1976 · 2 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

theasxgorilla said:
I prefer to think about it like this. Over 4 years of stellar returns in the sharemarket. Many people leveraging into the sharemarket with margin loans, often tied to houses that went up during the property boom. People cash in their shares, even after the last couple of weeks price falls they're still well in profit, and what do they have? Equity! Property markets are reputed to be going up again in many areas around the country. Thats where I'd be looking for the money to flow to.

You can wait for the dip...but I reckon the property dip will lag any sharemarket dip by a couple of years, at least.

Don't forget, a sharemarket drop does not mean a problem with the economy. It doesn't translate directly or immediately to people losing their jobs or foreclosing their houses. In fact I suspect many people were riding this as long as it could be ridden and they'll unwind their market and debt exposure then look for new opportunities to leverage their capital into.

The basis of my comment was simply that there is one common factor at work across the various markets at the moment. The increasing difficulty of getting credit with which to buy the asset. If buyers can not access credit then that removes an awful lot of buyers both in real estate and stocks.

I think this has at least something to do with what is going on at the moment. Deals are falling over, funds are losing money and assets are being sold all over the place as access to credit dries up. I'm not calling it a crisis (yet) but it's quite a bit of the driving force behind current events in my opinion. What I really don't know is how far it will go.

My best guess is that this has a while to go until it gets to some sort of crisis that is mainstream (non-financial) headline news. Then we get another round of central bank inflation and the cycle starts again. I could be wrong of course.

barney · 2 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Heres my less technical view of all ords ................ 5700 looks important to me (last minor correction level) ............... Longer term trading channel has been over-stepped for a while now .............. If it gets back in step with that channel, and then resumes the uptrend, should look fairly healthy .................. If 5700 gets breached ...... who knows .......

wayneL · 2 August 2007

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Smurf said:
The basis of my comment was simply that there is one common factor at work across the various markets at the moment. The increasing difficulty of getting credit with which to buy the asset.

Yup, the economic clock has been ****ed with by muppets and is now broken.

Everything will hit the wall together and splatter blood everywhere.

XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

dhukka

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XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

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