The patterns are slightly different, but the key difference as I see it is the timeframe that the patterns are forming over. It seems to be of larger scale. This time the market lost momentum over a longer period of time and has fallen to it's 200-day MA much faster than May '06. Coupled with some volume and sector analysis I've been doing this suggests that the distribution has gone on for longer this time. The timing of fundamental market factors like the once off superannuation contribution must be considered as a bigger than usual June 30th event and suggest to me who the new holders of the distributed positions are likely to be.
Something to ponder...if you were one of those who took advantage of the super contribution situation and put your million into super earlier this year...would you be looking at a red or black account balance right now? If so, to what extent? Would you start pulling your money out, lest you went on to lose 30% like you did in your mutual funds back in '02? You're 5 years closer to retirement now...300k buys a lot of retirement living. A catalyst for further selling, perhaps?
Otherwise it is remarkably similar to May '06 so far. Key point to watch...does the XAO close below it's 200-day MA? This have NEVER happened during this bull run. IMO, any prolonged price action below this MA would signal something happening on a larger scale than May '06 or Feb '07.