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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
My comments to subscribers last night was the DJIA had completed its corrective phase and was more than likely now on its way to 13,900 as a minimum. However, this in direct conflict with the most probable pattern in the XJO. The XJO has had a 3-wave decline (30-min chart) off the Sept 5 high but its not, in my view, of typical depth suggesting that more is to come.
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Hey Nick,

Thanks for the update, wow 13,900 sure would be nice for the DJIA!

Its amazing how the XAO was on the 6,200 line yesterday, if Bernake's speech killed US markets XAO would have been ripe for a fall below it, luckily US rallied strongly last night and has thus given Aus mkts breathing space above the 6,200 line,

So it looks like Kennarico's Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is still in play :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Also have recent support line now acting as resistance.

Cheers,
GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

In posts # 1437 and 1474 I posted IMO that this current rally/countertrend would persist till late Sept/early Oct, to be more precise the 28th Sept and 5th Oct look to be very significant in terms of time assuming the market rallies into these dates. Like mid July, these dates coincide with a termination and overlapping of various significant cycles.

In terms of the SP500 and XAO there is a slight disparity. Both have major cycle culminations on the dates I just mentioned, however on the way to these dates the 17 Sep plus or minus 1 day has the XAO making a low of sorts, however the SP500 should form some sort of high on the 19th Sep(smaller cycle date).

This is hinting to me the the XAO and possibly SP500 is currently in some sort of brief sideways consolidation pattern for now and will most probably move out of this type of pattern after the 19th Sept to new recovery highs, but not sure of the level. Irrespective if this ends up being a truncation or a minor new high, IMO we will thereafter see a fast move back down into mid Novemeber (I will be gutsy here and say 14/15th Nov). I think this rally since 17th August may well end finishing as a zigzag, in which has an impulse might follow since that will be wave C of a flat or irregular correction(not sure which yet)

There appear to be some really nice plays coming up and the volatility ain't gonna ease up soon IMO.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
Rejection is rejection. The market is showing its not ready to rise. The reason is irrelevant.
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News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!
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Once again another one trying to justify what the market did that particular day. Like Nick says it's irrelevant(and what's more probably too late to do anything about it), what's more important is "What might the market do from here?". Once again the cause would be irrelevant, what is relevant is realising the probabilities/possibilities and formulating a plan to best take advantage of them.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!
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You'll have to. No one else will.:cool:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!
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I think you are missing the point S.T.C.

It doesn't matter what causes markets to move, we could give a million reasons why price rises or falls.It matters not one iota as long as the analysis is proven to be correct as time progresses, it remains valid.

If you are going down that path, how do you explain prices rising on perceived bad news and vice versa.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA
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So you are agreeing or disagreeing With Nick Radge ?

The market is showing its not ready to rise. The reason is irrelevant.

The observation ( the TA ) is not a reason..

Observations (the TA ) are aways relevant.
But do need context.

The reasons for the observations are often
Just so stories
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The only relevance they have is in recognizing manipulation and hence
technical positions.

A just-so story, also called the Ad hoc fallacy, is a term used in academic anthropology, biological sciences, and social sciences. It describes an unverifiable and unfalsifiable narrative explanation for a cultural practice or a biological trait or behavior of humans or other animals. The use of the term is an implicit criticism that reminds the hearer of the essentially fictional and unprovable nature of such an explanation. Such tales are common in folklore and mythology (where they are known as etiological myths — see etiology).

The phrase was popularized by the publication in 1902 of Just So Stories by Rudyard Kipling, which are fictional and deliberately fanciful tales for children which pretend to explain animal characteristics such as the spots of a leopard (e.g., "How the Leopard Got His Spots").
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motorway
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Must also be why the Hang Seng rallied 200+ points into the close...

I'm not saying TA caused the decline. I'm simply pointing out continued evidence of what the technical picture (in my humble opinion at least) is suggesting.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

In fact, given the unpopularity of the outgoing Japanese PM, the market would've shot up if there were any effects at all. A new PM would give people hope that economic growth in Japan might increase.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

'O, say can you see by the dawn's early light |ye - through
What so proudly we hail'd at the twilight's last gleaming?'

Rise by the Yanks over night was some good old American patriotism in remembrance of September 11. Aussie pragmatism ensured that the local bourse did not join the chest beating for to long.

Remember the 'P' word amongst your charts and doji stars wizards. Psychology. But hale to the Bhuddist trader, connecting only with the moment, ignoring all external stimulus.

Shinzo Abe resigning was to be expected given the scandal that has rocked his term in office. Japan has had 29 individuals serve as prime minister since WWII. Compare that to Australia and you will see that a Japanese PM resigning early is not an unusual scenario. Definitely would have had limited impact on our local traders.

Sayonara.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The rounding top and the 6200 mark still seem to hold a bit of sway...
Have dabbled a bit with time in my spare time and a couple of days either side of 26 Sept and likewise 10 Oct pop up as being potentially important, for what it's worth...
Cheers
.........Kauri
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!
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Stop the clock people!
It was Technical Analysis that did it! Now, if only we knew what to do about it.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Watching the dow at the moment and its looking pretty good (still plenty of time to revervse). Looking at my charts there seems to be a similar inverted H&S patern forming like last years correction. If the dow closes strong and breaks my blue decending line then the horizontal (neckline) blue line should be next. last years correction took 3 months, this time the start was the 26/07 and so 3 months makes 26/09 which is in line with Kauri's first time line on his XAO chart. If this falls into place i predict we (XAO) maybe break the last highs around this date and then go on to 6900 which is fib 161.8 around the 10/10 (maybe just important because its my dads birthday:D)
Also Kennas's inverted H&S seems to be holding up so far with the neckline acting as support now.
Anyway thats another way to look at what might be install
Go the dow and go the PIES(collingwood)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

vert said:
Watching the dow at the moment and its looking pretty good (still plenty of time to revervse). Looking at my charts there seems to be a similar inverted H&S patern forming like last years correction. If the dow closes strong and breaks my blue decending line then the horizontal (neckline) blue line should be next. last years correction took 3 months, this time the start was the 26/07 and so 3 months makes 26/09 which is in line with Kauri's first time line on his XAO chart.
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3 months from 26/07 gets us to 26/10 not 26/09....
 
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