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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

If you have a look at a lot of the Specie stuff it is still well below where it was in mid July. The strength of this rally is really only because of the top 15 Big Caps. This rally is pretty weak as far as broad based stocks participating.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Kris.

Just bad analysis I guess.
I'll just have to be happy with picking up the last 5 yrs then.
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You have certainly done well over the last 5 years, no doubt about it and I am very proud of your achievement.

Just suprised that you need so much convincing evidence to turn that bear into a bull again
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
You have certainly done well over the last 5 years, no doubt about it and I am very proud of your achievement.

Just suprised that you need so much convincing evidence to turn that bear into a bull again
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To stay in this game and win the war in the long term you need to manage your risk. Picking bottoms and tops in hindsight is a losers game.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
If you have a look at a lot of the Specie stuff it is still well below where it was in mid July. The strength of this rally is really only because of the top 15 Big Caps. This rally is pretty weak as far as broad based stocks participating.
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cheers for that TH, was wondering about the internals :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A comment from Guppy's latest newsletter:

Gamblers have made money on the rebound. Long term traders are not gamblers, so caution rules until there is proof of trend stability.
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Cheers,
GP
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I am fully in the market again, and have been enjoying steady profits over the past few weeks. I am a strong bull till at least Jan/Feb 08, and at that time I will become a bear, and switch all my money to cash.

Remember the 6 month theory bull run...correction...bull run...correction etc.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
I am quite suprised about this..did you buy back into the market a few weeks back? A bottom was signalled and it was very obvious!

then we just experienced the biggest weekly rise in 30 years...what a missed oppourtinity if you didn't.

Amazing that you geared heavily in the property market and rode the biggest housing boom in 30 years but missed the stock market boom of late.
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STC,
The fact that the recent bottom and subsequent rise was so obvious to you, coupled with the fact that my Budgie is eyeing off the bell in his cage, along with a few other boring observations.... has me looking to my shorts again.... :)
Cheers
..........Kauri
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
STC,
The fact that the recent bottom and subsequent rise was so obvious to you, coupled with the fact that my Budgie is eyeing off the bell in his cage, along with a few other boring observations.... has me looking to my shorts again.... :)
Cheers
..........Kauri
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Kauri, if he starts attacking it, please PM me. Cheers! :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
A bottom was signalled and it was very obvious!

then we just experienced the biggest weekly rise in 30 years...what a missed oppourtinity if you didn't.
Click to expand...


I'm not convinced the bottom was obvious, what analysis do you base this on S.T.C.?

As far as the biggest weekly rise in 30 yrs, well all I know is that all my scans are 90% for short trades, so the rise is mostly in the big blue chip companies.

I don't yet have a mechanical trading plan so my "discretion" has been used and I am out except for a couple of long termers.

The odd very quick trade is still possible, but like many here I would doubt we are going to get a big broad based Bull Market again for a while.If I am wrong, like Tech A says, no big deal, just trade what the market tells us.

If that means getting back on and missing 5% of the rise, so what it will have been worth it for the insurance it provides.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone watching for a transfer of ownership from the "strong hands" to the "weak hands", would have to be having a close look these past months.

tech/a never actually said why he thought this correction would be worse than any others he endured during last 5 years!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just pretty lines on a chart really, but it's still fun drawing them.. ;) ..
Cheers
.............Kauri
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I think its a little premature to think the bull is back.

The "speccies" are yet to rally. When this happens the bull is back. The larger cap compies have run on good results. Once the vaule in the larger cap companies is no longer as apparent, the bulls should invade all the species in search of value
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yep short term daytraders heaven eg XTL back to previous highs - too high too fast maybe. Long term I think Kauri's 'cone of silence' formation is still intact. Even shorter term, a pull back is on the cards, as soon as tomorrow. Todays action says a lot - up 50 pts then steady selling into it - short the rallies?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Stop_the_clock said:
I am fully in the market again, and have been enjoying steady profits over the past few weeks. I am a strong bull till at least Jan/Feb 08, and at that time I will become a bear, and switch all my money to cash.

Remember the 6 month theory bull run...correction...bull run...correction etc.
Click to expand...
I don't remember the 6 month theory. What authority is sprouting that one? So much to learn, the mind boggles :rolleyes:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

coupled with the fact that my Budgie is eyeing off the bell in his cage,
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Thats the funniest line Ive read in years.

So I went out and bought a budgie!!!
And I thought I had a handle on analysis.
You learn something every day.
Thanks for the heads up.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I cashed out everything a month ago, and I'm still holding cash now. Not exactly miffed though, and my gut feeling tells me that I'm watching a ticking time bomb. Of course, I have no backups for gut feelings, but I guess I'm in a bit of an extended sabbatical for now. Also, I'm not very comfortable with the just the bluechips holding the market up. After the euphoria of record profits of the last financial year, all they need is a bit of news to set off panic alarms, and we'll probably be a few hundred points down again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri:

Can you just run these excerpts by your budgie and get us some local reaction?

From and article out today:
Japan Could Drive Global Economic Slowdown
FN Arena News - September 05 2007

By Greg Peel

Re Japan's economy:
The London Telegraph reports Japanese wages have fallen for the last eight months in a row. Over that period business investment has fallen 4.9%, with the pace of decline gathering speed in the last few months. The Japanese government has applied a "fanatical" fiscal squeeze that has cut the deficit from 8% of GDP in 2003 to 1.5% this year. Critics suggest Japan was too quick to raise the interest rate from zero.



Re US market:
Meanwhile, the situation becomes increasingly dire in the US. Concerns are not currently being reflected in a buoyant stock market. ......

..... The biggest immediate problem for the US is that large parts of the US$2200bn commercial paper market remain shut. Short term borrowing through the issuance of corporate debt is what keeps the world's biggest companies rolling along.

The Telegraph suggests the Fed has been "stunned" by the ongoing freezing of activity in commercial paper. The rush to 3-month US Treasuries has been the fastest on record, eclipsing even 9/11 and the 1987 crash.



And lastly:
Fuelling fear in US financial markets is the great unknown. Who owns all the worthless mortgage-backed securities and how many? September may be a month when some of this information is divulged, as US financial institutions begin to provide pre-results for the third quarter. German bank IKB was one of the first victims to disclose its exposure to subprime securities, forcing a bail-out by the Bundesbank. IKB has said this week its losses could reach E700 billion.


Are there dominoes wavering somewhere out there?

Source: http://www.fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=D402468C-17A4-1130-F5D5FE1FCD2ED893
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wanna see something really scary?

The specter that is haunting the markets lately goes by the name "1987." A stock market runup, a buyout boom, high-yield bonds, increased government regulation, tax hikes on investments and buyouts. It all seems eerily familiar to many people with long memories. And the chart above is not exactly re-assuring.

But, surprisingly, some traders take the similarities to 1987 as a contrary indicator.
"There's no way the Fed will allow October 19, 1987 to happen all over again," a trader told us Monday night after his fifth scotch.

For some people, there's always a bull market somewhere. And the assumption that a rate cut can and will save the markets-or even the broader economy-may be wishful thinking. Or just the scotch talking.

The Federal Reserve's intervention is credited with the fast recovery in the Dow in 1987, when the stock index finished slightly up for the year. A gross domestic product grew 3.7 percent in 1987's third quarter, and continued in to grow in the subsequent quarters. There was the Fed fueled rock growth of 7.2 percent in 1987's fourth quarter, 1.9 percent in 1988's first quarter, 5.2 percent in 1988's second quarter, and 2.2 percent in 1988's third quarter. Buyouts resumed. High yield debt kept finding buyers. Jim Cramer famously made a lot of money.

But it didn't last long. The leveraged buyout market came to a crash in 1989. The Dow turned bearish the next year. The country went into a recession. And many believe that the bear market and recession were on the early nineties were made far worse by the Fed's 1987 intervention, which inflation hawks say created the illusion of prosperity and led to lots of capital misallocation. When market realities began to set in and capital started fleeing the dead-ends into which it had been led by the siren song of easy money, the pain really started?

Is the Federal Reserve trying to trod a more careful path this time? One thing's for sure, if they don't cut rates in September some will no doubt scream "they don't know what they're doing." But it's still an open question whether the Punch Bowl Caucus really understands what it's doing.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Also something scary...the collapse in 1929 happened 55 days after the peak. The collapse in 1987 happened 55 days after the peak. September 12 is 55 days after the recent peak...

An important day. Review #1387

Consider,

1. The count from that chart
2. Today's price action, specifically the close and volume
3. What the next probable pattern will be
 
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