XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
The open may not be as pretty as most are expecting. World Futures are taking a bit of a hit after the US closed. Talk of a UK bank needing emergency funding from the Bank of England.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6994099.stm
The open may not be as pretty as most are expecting. World Futures are taking a bit of a hit after the US closed. Talk of a UK bank needing emergency funding from the Bank of England.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6994099.stm
Re: XAO Analysis
This will have a major bearing on the market here next week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20761445
This will have a major bearing on the market here next week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20761445
Re: XAO Analysis
Nice Juncture that should provide some pointers
On balance I see the circled area as absorption
I see Two possible scenarios
A reaction back near the half way point
setting up a good buy zone
Or a move to new highs from this congestion zone ( already enough cause built for that to happen )
I favor a move to new highs to some extent ...
Much less likely at this stage do I see much weakness occurring
The move up from the low spike was definitive ( breath at that point on the bullish% posted earlier was a possible very oversold )
I particularly see the character of the last bar as very positive
and the overall "theme" in the circled area as absorption
Just My opinion
motorway
Nice Juncture that should provide some pointers
On balance I see the circled area as absorption
I see Two possible scenarios
A reaction back near the half way point
setting up a good buy zone
Or a move to new highs from this congestion zone ( already enough cause built for that to happen )
I favor a move to new highs to some extent ...
Much less likely at this stage do I see much weakness occurring
The move up from the low spike was definitive ( breath at that point on the bullish% posted earlier was a possible very oversold )
I particularly see the character of the last bar as very positive
and the overall "theme" in the circled area as absorption
Just My opinion
motorway
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Re: XAO Analysis
Everyone can see the same lines and charts
It is the character that matters
Not what happens .. HOW it happens
the upthrust bar at the trend line
gave a strong appearance of weakness
Would have had people looking to go short
A Wyckoff ... last point of supply..
Subsequent response
the follow through
suggests to Me that
What selling there was
As been absorbed
By smarter money
Who took advantage of the lines in the sand...
Again it is now the subsequent response that matters...
Views and opinions
motorway
Everyone can see the same lines and charts
It is the character that matters
Not what happens .. HOW it happens
the upthrust bar at the trend line
gave a strong appearance of weakness
Would have had people looking to go short
A Wyckoff ... last point of supply..
Subsequent response
the follow through
suggests to Me that
What selling there was
As been absorbed
By smarter money
Who took advantage of the lines in the sand...
Again it is now the subsequent response that matters...
Views and opinions
motorway
Re: XAO Analysis
Seems to be two bob each way to me.
A real heart stopper for those of us sitting on the sidelines and waiting to get back in at a reasonable price.
We had the weak close Sept 5 yet many hopeful stocks rising on very low volume, was enough to push the XAO above the 6200 level.
Hopefully today or later this week we can get some market direction.
Still showing too much weakness for me atm.
austek
Seems to be two bob each way to me.
A real heart stopper for those of us sitting on the sidelines and waiting to get back in at a reasonable price.
We had the weak close Sept 5 yet many hopeful stocks rising on very low volume, was enough to push the XAO above the 6200 level.
Hopefully today or later this week we can get some market direction.
Still showing too much weakness for me atm.
austek
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Re: XAO Analysis
This is my take at the XAO pattern in the coming weeks. I actually emailed this chart to two posters from here(Magdoran and Trade It) on the 27th August before the current consolidation started, stating that we where about to enter a sideways market for a few weeks.
If I am correct with this analysis, then the market will break to new recovery highs(this may all time high or a truncation, either way it should be close) in the next few weeks to complete this pattern before turning down again. Ofocurse I could be wrong and could turn down earlier, but I feel that TIME is most important and would prefer for the pattern to confirm the cycle point dates stated on the chart. This sideways contracting pattern might actually be quite similar to the one put in on the 16th of July just BEFORE the final false break high was made. They are a great occasionaly, warning you that a trend maybe at risk of ending.
So if it does work out that way we might see a big move start in the weeks ahead.
Cheers
This is my take at the XAO pattern in the coming weeks. I actually emailed this chart to two posters from here(Magdoran and Trade It) on the 27th August before the current consolidation started, stating that we where about to enter a sideways market for a few weeks.
If I am correct with this analysis, then the market will break to new recovery highs(this may all time high or a truncation, either way it should be close) in the next few weeks to complete this pattern before turning down again. Ofocurse I could be wrong and could turn down earlier, but I feel that TIME is most important and would prefer for the pattern to confirm the cycle point dates stated on the chart. This sideways contracting pattern might actually be quite similar to the one put in on the 16th of July just BEFORE the final false break high was made. They are a great occasionaly, warning you that a trend maybe at risk of ending.
So if it does work out that way we might see a big move start in the weeks ahead.
Cheers
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rub92me
Don't look back
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Re: XAO Analysis
So does anyone think the XAO will not go up today??
So does anyone think the XAO will not go up today??
Porper
Ralph Nelson Elliott
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Re: XAO Analysis
Don't think today matters in the slightest, we will know early next week where we should be heading.Until then, I am out.
When the market is euphoric like today,a good sign to stand aside i.m.o.
So does anyone think the XAO will not go up today??
Don't think today matters in the slightest, we will know early next week where we should be heading.Until then, I am out.
When the market is euphoric like today,a good sign to stand aside i.m.o.
Re: XAO Analysis
Update of the P&F chart
Trends arise from certain technical positions.
Transfer of ownership
( Weak to strong to weak to strong-------> )
And building of contingency
( What people are gonna do .. When it starts/finishes going up/down/sideways etc..)
The last bricks are often laid in the horizontal zones seen on P&F charts.
P&F charts have a trend constant. ( supply and demand is being added or subtracted. That is the only thing that can make the chart move)
Because they are a chart of a( traded) price continuation Vs a (traded ) price reversal......
The posted boxes themselves are in effect woven out of volume price and time.
This chart is poised to break higher
Several bullish characteristics are apparent..
The width from where preliminary demand appeared
The reversal rally from the low pole
The inability of the price action to make a 3 box reversal
(since the low ) .
several one and two box step backs that have tested and confirmed the strength...
And the small congestion zone recently formed.
A reaction back to the 50% level marked
would only be "natural" ( hence healthy ).
But there is enough work already done to make new highs........
Now I am just Sharing some P&F technique for those interested.
No advice Just for Discussion...
Such a reversal from the (one , can be another thing if We see another ) low pole
tends to negate a bearish definition.
The small congestion zone
can be considered a "stepping stone" built above the main zone of accumulation.........
The shape is suggestive of absorbing supply
( hence an old name " a ladle" and as a pivotal zone of a change of the equilibrium of demand and supply " a fulcrum " )
again
Patterns make up larger patterns
There is a possibility that on a larger scale
A large reversal formation is being built
with the low pole as the mid pattern reaction.
My opinion would be that the characteristics above
make that at this stage doubtful.
As would coordinating with the vertical bar chart.
motorway
Update of the P&F chart
Trends arise from certain technical positions.
Transfer of ownership
( Weak to strong to weak to strong-------> )
And building of contingency
( What people are gonna do .. When it starts/finishes going up/down/sideways etc..)
The last bricks are often laid in the horizontal zones seen on P&F charts.
P&F charts have a trend constant. ( supply and demand is being added or subtracted. That is the only thing that can make the chart move)
Because they are a chart of a( traded) price continuation Vs a (traded ) price reversal......
The posted boxes themselves are in effect woven out of volume price and time.
This chart is poised to break higher
Several bullish characteristics are apparent..
The width from where preliminary demand appeared
The reversal rally from the low pole
The inability of the price action to make a 3 box reversal
(since the low ) .
several one and two box step backs that have tested and confirmed the strength...
And the small congestion zone recently formed.
A reaction back to the 50% level marked
would only be "natural" ( hence healthy ).
But there is enough work already done to make new highs........
Now I am just Sharing some P&F technique for those interested.
No advice Just for Discussion...
Such a reversal from the (one , can be another thing if We see another ) low pole
tends to negate a bearish definition.
The small congestion zone
can be considered a "stepping stone" built above the main zone of accumulation.........
The shape is suggestive of absorbing supply
( hence an old name " a ladle" and as a pivotal zone of a change of the equilibrium of demand and supply " a fulcrum " )
again
Patterns make up larger patterns
There is a possibility that on a larger scale
A large reversal formation is being built
with the low pole as the mid pattern reaction.
My opinion would be that the characteristics above
make that at this stage doubtful.
As would coordinating with the vertical bar chart.
motorway
Attachments
Re: XAO Analysis
cheers for the updated pnf Motorway. that pole reversal does look bullish and it looks as tho we'll get a double top breakout here but think it will be constrained by that line of 4 X's at the previous highs. if that goes should get a decent move... dunno what you'd call that? a quintuplet breakout?
cheers for the updated pnf Motorway. that pole reversal does look bullish and it looks as tho we'll get a double top breakout here but think it will be constrained by that line of 4 X's at the previous highs. if that goes should get a decent move... dunno what you'd call that? a quintuplet breakout?
Re: XAO Analysis
Hi Ed
here is the above chart as a 3 box reversal
Vertical counts have a whole different logic underlying them..
The chart does graphically show how strong the XAO had been
How much more significant this correction .
But how much more significant the rally from the bottom of the pole
Bullish% went to 18% at the low
It is now back to nearly 50%
That is 50% of stocks are on P&F double top buy signals....
Vertical Counts rely on a thrust and ease of movement model
They give much larger targets..
The downside target as been negated
the first upside vertical count looks reasonable
the large one ( which takes in the pole ) is still to be properly activated
and looks ambitious....
However it should be as it is classifying the pole and reversal as
aggressive accumulation..
How would We recognize aggressive accumulation
one way is an aggressive rally out of an oversold position
The 18% bullish percent + the Pole reversal
Counts are stop look and listen points
measure the relative strength of the rally
( By their fulfillment or negation )
But should look to the most modest counts first
If You ride trends that constantly fulfill counts
Your are riding along with the smart money..
No smart money
No accumulation
Then P&F charts
look like they have been drawn from roulette wheels
and not "manipulation"
Got to fly
Should coordinate The 1 box rev with the 3 box
and add the bar chart
You have triplescopic vision at the very least
motorway
Hi Ed
here is the above chart as a 3 box reversal
Vertical counts have a whole different logic underlying them..
The chart does graphically show how strong the XAO had been
How much more significant this correction .
But how much more significant the rally from the bottom of the pole
Bullish% went to 18% at the low
It is now back to nearly 50%
That is 50% of stocks are on P&F double top buy signals....
Vertical Counts rely on a thrust and ease of movement model
They give much larger targets..
The downside target as been negated
the first upside vertical count looks reasonable
the large one ( which takes in the pole ) is still to be properly activated
and looks ambitious....
However it should be as it is classifying the pole and reversal as
aggressive accumulation..
How would We recognize aggressive accumulation
one way is an aggressive rally out of an oversold position
The 18% bullish percent + the Pole reversal
Counts are stop look and listen points
measure the relative strength of the rally
( By their fulfillment or negation )
But should look to the most modest counts first
If You ride trends that constantly fulfill counts
Your are riding along with the smart money..
No smart money
No accumulation
Then P&F charts
look like they have been drawn from roulette wheels
and not "manipulation"
Got to fly
Should coordinate The 1 box rev with the 3 box
and add the bar chart
You have triplescopic vision
at the very leastmotorway
Attachments
Re: XAO Analysis
nice one Motorway thanks v. much for the detailed response & analysis! its always useful to see what pnf targets are out there as they have an uncanny knack of being achieved. hear what you're saying re: the high target
so trend is intact, we're heading for a quadruple top pnf breakout so could encounter some resistance here, but otherwise it all looks good for higher levels (imo)
nice one Motorway thanks v. much for the detailed response & analysis! its always useful to see what pnf targets are out there as they have an uncanny knack of being achieved. hear what you're saying re: the high target
so trend is intact, we're heading for a quadruple top pnf breakout so could encounter some resistance here, but otherwise it all looks good for higher levels (imo)
Re: XAO Analysis
An Update on the Bullish% chart
Again... Every stock on the ASX is charted as a 2%x3 P&F chart
Then the % that are defined as bullish by having the last column of Xs
exceeding the previous columns of Xs ( A three box reversal double top buy signal ) is charted on a 1x3 P&F chart that will oscillate between 0 and 100.
It is important to distinguish between The Trend and The Position..
These two aspects of all market behavior, are built from each other and form and create each other..........
Maximizing profit is being in harmony with trends.
The line of least resistance.
Harmony is not the same as following................
When weak hands start following trends.
The strong hands start to take advantage of the position of those trends.
When weak hands become focused on position ..Strong hands have already anticipated the new emergent trends...
Trend and position have ( at least ) two aspects...
There is the position in terms of position in the trend
and there is position in terms of the breadth of the trend.
The bullish % is an easy way of obtaining a bottom up view of an aspect of a markets technical position. whereas analyzing an index is giving a top down view..
With less than 50% of stocks on a P&F bullish definition..
Many stocks are still in vicious downtrends
But it is in (some of) these stocks ( many of these are smaller stocks ).
That the strongest technical positions will be found...
And the strongest and most profitable longs will in the fullness of time be found.
However , Oversold needs to be confirmed by the presence of accumulation.
Without the confirmation of accumulation all you have is a still ongoing downtrend and the catching of falling knives that will cut deep.
The same with overbought and its confirmation by distribution
Some pondering on trend and position
Wyckoff said it back in 1908
The study of responses......
A strong Technical position ensues when all who would sell have sold .
When lower prices can no longer stimulate any following..
motorway
An Update on the Bullish% chart
Again... Every stock on the ASX is charted as a 2%x3 P&F chart
Then the % that are defined as bullish by having the last column of Xs
exceeding the previous columns of Xs ( A three box reversal double top buy signal ) is charted on a 1x3 P&F chart that will oscillate between 0 and 100.
It is important to distinguish between The Trend and The Position..
These two aspects of all market behavior, are built from each other and form and create each other..........
Maximizing profit is being in harmony with trends.
The line of least resistance.
Harmony is not the same as following................
When weak hands start following trends.
The strong hands start to take advantage of the position of those trends.
When weak hands become focused on position ..Strong hands have already anticipated the new emergent trends...
Trend and position have ( at least
) two aspects...There is the position in terms of position in the trend
and there is position in terms of the breadth of the trend.
The bullish % is an easy way of obtaining a bottom up view of an aspect of a markets technical position. whereas analyzing an index is giving a top down view..
With less than 50% of stocks on a P&F bullish definition..
Many stocks are still in vicious downtrends
But it is in (some of) these stocks ( many of these are smaller stocks ).
That the strongest technical positions will be found...
And the strongest and most profitable longs will in the fullness of time be found.
However , Oversold needs to be confirmed by the presence of accumulation.
Without the confirmation of accumulation all you have is a still ongoing downtrend and the catching of falling knives that will cut deep.
The same with overbought and its confirmation by distribution
Some pondering on trend and position
Wyckoff said it back in 1908
The study of responses......
A strong Technical position ensues when all who would sell have sold .
When lower prices can no longer stimulate any following..
motorway
Attachments
Bronte
Trading The SPI for 20+ years
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Re: XAO Analysis
For those that are interested:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumnal_Equinox_Day
Today is our: Spring Equinox 23rd September 2007
Any members know why this is so important to XAO Analysis?
For those that are interested:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumnal_Equinox_Day
Today is our: Spring Equinox 23rd September 2007
Any members know why this is so important to XAO Analysis?
doctorj
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Re: XAO Analysis
Am I close?
The ying and the yang are finally balanced today so the chi is finally in balance with the feng shui which gives the best time of year to read the tea leaves and talk bollocks?.
Am I close?
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
Isn't there a Gann thread somewhere Brontman?For those that are interested:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumnal_Equinox_Day
Today is our: Spring Equinox 23rd September 2007
Any members know why this is so important?
Bronte
Trading The SPI for 20+ years
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Re: XAO Analysis
Hi kennas,
Relevant to 'XAO Analysis'
Brontdog
Lol doc,For those that are interested:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumnal_Equinox_Day
Today is our: Spring Equinox 23rd September 2007
Any members know why this is so important to XAO Analysis?
Hi kennas,
Relevant to 'XAO Analysis'
Brontdog