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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

I sold out today... tooo much doom and gloom again... Scares the CR4P out of me... In the speckies to many supports are breaking and I can't stand there and not do anything to stop it... The word out there is that September is going to be bad... I can't support this because it is nothing more than unsubstantiated cr4p but if the lemmings are going to sell up then make the most of it...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

head and shoulders breaking down
its up to the dow tonight
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

The reason I was short today... and will remain short until I get another warning from my Bell-Ringer...
although there are probably other more valid E/W counts out there, I see both of mine pointing to a small drop (300 points odd?).... initially at least...
Cheers
.......Kauri
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Recent days seem to indicate a slow turn around... it will most likely end up going down
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sam76 said:
Wanna see something really scary?
Click to expand...


That chart is highly misleading, throw log scales on that thing and put in the recent DJI returns and see how similar it looks.

For the record, the R^2 of DJI 1987 returns to DJI 2007 returns is 29.7%.
Time to jump off the bridge i think
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Excellent comments Kauri,

I am also looking to short patience is a virtue, hope makes some of us money

Kauri,

So the budgie is the secret not the EW huh!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

rub92me said:
To stay in this game and win the war in the long term you need to manage your risk. Picking bottoms and tops in hindsight is a losers game.
Click to expand...

excellent comment!

Rub92,

how are u doing against yogi in oz now in the comp?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Tech,
Re post #1457

We anticipated the market to pullback between 4-6 September as stated in that post.(At the time I was not sure of the price level only the time).

Is this the resumption of the bear trend?? Anything is possible, but it's my opinion that time is not ready for the bear to continue just yet. I mentioned in that post the late September/early October range would be a higher probability. I have 2 key dates for this. The first one is 28th September and the second is 5th October. These a very key dates and like 16th July coincide with key cycle dates. They prety close togther so it (5 trading days) so it should be too much of a problem.

I am working with the scenario that the market will rally into these dates. I have no idea if it will be a struggling or strong rally, however I favour a struggling rally and I have no idea once again what the price level will be.

If the market falls into these dates, then it will be the opposite and the market should set up for a continuation of the rally, however IMO this is a lower probability.

On the chance that the market makes a false break new high, we may have the scenario of 3 waves down from 16th July and 3 waves up from the 17th August. If that ends up being an irregular(expanded) flat correction from the 16th July, then it will be a very fast move down(impulse) to finish the correction??


Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Two days ago a posted a chart of the 6 month new highs which showed the lack of stocks pushing to new highs since the start of the year. It has now ran right up against the down trend line going back to the start of the year.

Another chart I watch is the Advance/Decline 10 day average that started to roll over Monday which is no surprise as the last 12 days has been just about straight up. But was has been a surprise is the continuing push higher after we dropped off the very negative readings of 16th and 17th of August out of the 10 day calculations. On Friday we printed a new high for the year with Tuesdays/Fridays short covering rally.

I'm still cautious here but open to the possibility that although many things are looking negative, like everything except the ASX20, we are butting up against some not so looked at resistance. And I'm always more inclined to take notice of what people aren't watching than what everyone is. If we can print higher highs on the XFJ, 6 month highs or stay positive on the Adv/Dec chart I will reluctantly have to start getting a bit Bullish.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

there will be some damage on the asx come monday so look for this thread to heat up!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
there will be some damage on the asx come monday so look for this thread to heat up!
Click to expand...

Maybe, but more often lately the ASX has been doing its own thing. Chindia is the new frontier for AUz. But no doubt if current dow continues, it will be subdued allright
 
Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Maybe, but more often lately the ASX has been doing its own thing. Chindia is the new frontier for AUz. But no doubt if current dow continues, it will be subdued allright
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Explod my point is, I have noticed that this thread becomes rather inactive once the market is rising nicely, but when it starts correct, fall, 1-2 day smashing the posts in here really pick up!

come Monday see what happens.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
Explod my point is, I have noticed that this thread becomes rather inactive once the market is rising nicely, but when it starts correct, fall, 1-2 day smashing the posts in here really pick up!

come Monday see what happens.
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Apologies T. I., probably ramping two days early. Dow recovered a few points so should pull my head in and hit the sack. Step Daughter's whisky good stuff.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Apologies T. I., probably ramping two days early. Dow recovered a few points so should pull my head in and hit the sack. Step Daughter's whisky good stuff.
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Yep I hear u, I just closed my dow short time for bed!
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Hey Nick,

tomorrow is the 12th and your post has been in the back of my mind :couch: :hide:

Has anything happened over the last few days that may change/strengthen the possibility etc?

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Hey Nick,

tomorrow is the 12th and your post has been in the back of my mind :couch: :hide:

Has anything happened over the last few days that may change/strengthen the possibility etc?

Cheers
Click to expand...

so far, all markets in europe are green.
waiting for Ben B speech in berlin for further hints.
will this make tomorrow BIG downfall or BIG jump??
 
Re: XAO Analysis

powerkoala said:
so far, all markets in europe are green.
waiting for Ben B speech in berlin for further hints.
will this make tomorrow BIG downfall or BIG jump??
Click to expand...

Bernanke's speech is to be on global imbalances.With this in mind,I don't think it will have much influence on the market tonight in America or tomorrow in Oz.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My comments to subscribers last night was the DJIA had completed its corrective phase and was more than likely now on its way to 13,900 as a minimum. However, this in direct conflict with the most probable pattern in the XJO. The XJO has had a 3-wave decline (30-min chart) off the Sept 5 high but its not, in my view, of typical depth suggesting that more is to come.
 
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