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XAO Technical Analysis

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I think my yearly yearly XAO prediction is well in the toilet, unless something dramatic happens to the downside. A liquidity event? Taiwan? Russia launch a tactical nuke? Iran go full gonzo on Israel?

 
Sean K said:
Yikes. Is there some support across this zone, or are we in the hands of the panicking crowd?

View attachment 182046
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I still reckon I'm going to win the XAO 2024 number pick at 10,000 plus, so Sean you are not in the hands of a panicking crowd. This is support. It looks like panic and everyone says it's panic and all the commentators are getting clicks for panic which means it's not going to happen.

gg
 
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Well if you that confident some dec calls 1500 OTM will make you rich . dec 9100 calls last traded 3.5 , 10k XJO makes that worth 900 , do the sums . I'd hate for it to tag 10k and you dont get some fun tokens ... $3500 down = $900k , good luck
 
As I was saying.

Onwards and upwards.

“Experts and Analysts” !!

gg
 
Sean K said:
Or,

View attachment 182286

??
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Thanks @Sean K . I always enjoy short, witty replies to my own deadbeat posts, and yours is one of many I have received from ASF members over the years. It must be ASF as I'm usually ignored, beaten up or not published in The Australian, FT, TOL, Economist and other publications. Why do I believe that the ASX will hit 10,000 ?

Because it suits the interests of the "Smart Money". Not you nor I nor other ordinary investors. But the large funds and Family Offices here in Australia and overseas. It has nothing to do with earnings, P/E, growth nor dividends. Our ASX is well structured and our tax system well organised to give ordinary investors good returns. So equally for the giants, there is big money invested in the ASX.

Contrary to what we believe our ASX is seen overseas as being a Gold, Minerals and Materials index because the largest companies on the index produce materials predominantly.

Given the spat between the US and China, the Pandemic recovery stalling, workers hiding at home watching pr0n instead of going in to the office, The Middle East and Europe in flames or about to go there, and interest rates one would think that a bigger fallback would have occurred in world markets than has since the short blip in 2022. My guess is that even if some idiot in the Middle East or Russia fires a nuclear bomb it will cause just a small correction in the NYSE, followed by us as it did just this past Monday, and then by the inevitable recovery.

So that's my thinking. I may be wrong.

And don't anyone do your own research. Research is pointless. You'll get run over by what you least expect. Like a dead cat bounce as Sean has pointed out. Enjoy your Italian Cruise, Sean, the Italian for condoms is preservativi NOT preservatidi . If you ask for the latter you'll end up with a can of olives or other useless preservative for the task at hand.

gg
 
TimeISmoney said:
We still have hunting season ahead, late August is mid-financial year reporting time, and then ugly October quarterly reports.
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Next 4 months are Statistically choppy fwiw . Graphic attached is the average distribution of XAO returns over 4 decades from Aug 1 to end of Nov (88 trading days ) . Historically not a bullish time . Couple outliers in there so be aware , Black Monday 87 and lehmans collapse 08 ... Edit will add Aug is the statistically choppiest month of year


Same exploration from Jan 2009 removing period with extreme outliers
 
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Great charting @Chipp, got to be a few hard hits this year with the way the economy has been running so far.

There's always going to be those outliers that thrive on a down economy but I'd imagine they'll be far and few in between.
 
Not an expert but it is pretty clear that we should statistically NOT be in the market from the 20/30th of August but reenter in October!
 
qldfrog said:
Not an expert but it is pretty clear that we should statistically NOT be in the market from the 20/30th of August but reenter in October!
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i'll be there ( in the market ) but M&A activity looks like some profits will be crystallized ( only one take-over deal i have been entangled in has stalled ) some divs. are due , i will have some reserves , but will they be enough ?

but i WILL be treading very carefully ( i don't expect many bargains in places i want to buy , but i have been wrong before )
 
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