XAO Technical Analysis

[Porper]

This is the weekly XJO although same patterns/analysis as XAO.

Corrective pattern higher unfolding i.m.o. It would take a break above 6490 to be more bullish.

 

[Trembling Hand]

So the SPI has broken out. You will not see this on the XJO and Aussie CFD because of the Divs from CBA etc But shorts will be taking heat and SPI momo models could take off here,


The strong AUD and TLS could stink this up I guess..

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Maybe today's the day. With all the fakeout-breakouts, better wait til close I guess. Unless there's an afternoon rush. If it does close above the line, I still like 5884 as the initial Ords target.

 

[skyQuake]

False brk imo.

As an aside, What do people look at most for charting? The futs or the index?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

False brk imo.

As an aside, What do people look at most for charting? The futs or the index?

Ords definitely more reliable regarding breakouts and targets. Can't trade it but that doesn't matter.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Ords definitely more reliable regarding breakouts and targets. Can't trade it but that doesn't matter.

How do you quantify that?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

How do you quantify that?

I've compared them for a specific trendline technique I use. When used on the Ords, the targets are often met exactly. When used on the CFD, it's close but vague. Sometimes they mirror each other.

But the CFD broke out yesterday and the retrace today didn't really line up with anything that I could see. Ords is still under the line at today's close - that's quite a difference.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Buying opportunity imo.

 

[skyQuake]

Buying opportunity imo.

Why not a selling opp?

 

[Porper]

Why not a selling opp?

Strong close but the risk is down for me. The banks have bounced following a strong impulsive leg lower into the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone. This suggests further weakness to come over the coming months.

The Small Ords (XSO) is approaching the upper boundary of the consolidation pattern that commenced at the beginning of the year. It has also chopped its way higher indicative of a corrective pattern.

Shorting opportunities in the big four for the brave.

 

[Logique]

Congratulations to anyone who can make sense of the current XAO.
To be honest, in recent months it had begun to resemble a bullish triangle to me.
But let's see overnight if it will be rescued once again from the 200EMA - US Futs not so good, but there's still a few hours until US market opens

 

[SuperGlue]

But let's see overnight if it will be rescued once again from the 200EMA - US Futs not so good, but there's still a few hours until US market opens
View attachment 72421

"Dow futures stumble more than 100 points after North Korea takes aim at Japan"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...orth-korea-tensions-flare-up-again-2017-08-29
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Not looking too good at the moment.

 

[traderxxx]

interesting last few days, mr calc says spi should be trading
back at 5704 this week, so lets see how that pans out.
would like to see a bottom at 5576 5567 (cant remember which)

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yesterday saw the breakdown from the big wedge. A close outside of the lines - first in months. South Korea readying for conflict.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Why not a selling opp?

You're right. That top line had nine tests/touches. My thinking was that if it did break to the upside it would be a big move. Obviously it failed and now we have a true move outside the lines (close<line).

 

[Logique]

You're right. That top line had nine tests/touches. My thinking was that if it did break to the upside it would be a big move. Obviously it failed and now we have a true move outside the lines (close<line).

I'm also wondering if this is the start of a downward failure from the triangle pattern. At 5,730, a critical juncture.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I'm also wondering if this is the start of a downward failure from the triangle pattern. At 5,730, a critical juncture.

The other night I had a dream about the 18th as a date of significance. Not sure what month. Still getting my psychic app business up and running.

 

[Logique]

That looks like a breakdown of any idea of a wedge or triangle pattern in the XAO. Downside target is the height of the mast isn't it?
CBA share price looking sick, very influential on the domestic index, as with all the majors.

 

[Logique]

I admit that I'm too prone to noodling on the General Chat forum. So, I now comment on the all Ords XAO Tech Analysis - in Bullish fashion. In the near term, I can't see 6,000 pulling it up. Look at the attached long term chart, marked with my own hypothesis of long-term ascending triangle.

Doubtless Tech/a will take me to task on my primitive TA skills. Momentum. Just momentum. See long term chart below, with my hypothetical ascending triangle marks in green.

 

[Logique]

That's more like it today! Holding above 6,100