XAO Technical Analysis

[Boggo]

Low of the decision point area is based on a 1.272 times the last run up projected down from the most recent high.
It lines up almost perfectly with a 61.8% overall retracement.

This is significant imo, if the 5520 area doesn't hold then its brace position folks.
Just my

(click to expand)

 

[rimtas]

Hi Gartley,
I liked your post, it is better than the previous one where you bagged me in a box. Looks like we are starting to have a discussion.

Firstly, You don't need to take credit for 2009 bottom, this was an extremely rare historical event when we had an Impusive 5 wave decline from 2007 top, and every single elliotician with some experience pointed finger to it back then. It was just too easy. I understand that we all make ourselves proud when market presents textbook opportunities and even 6 years after the event we point a finger of predicting a bottom of 2009 in every post, as if it makes any of those forecasters as good now as in 2009.

But as far as I remember, those ellioticians that predicted 2009 bottom, later just kept being bearish and counted waves up as a correction, even when market climbed above 2007 high. I do not know what your attitude was back then, you could clear this for us whith a few links, if it is not a burden for you.

And I can present mine-I made a specific forecast back then that DJIA will go to new all time Highs, when everyone around was counting bear waves up. This link gives you an opportunity to see how I made tons of money back then-I was trading in US markets on high leverage on a long side since 2011. Enjoy reading:

http://spekuliantai.tv3.lt/rimtas-lt/dienorastis/irasas/1509

I understand and totally agree with you on the DJIA-it has a nice Ending Diagonal, that is pointing to a sharp reversal. These markets in US have an epic levels of optimism in the face of roaring Deflation, and I expect them to top out soon and crash. I will turn bearish if I see Impulsive decline with good momentum, but as per mine above forecast, I expect it to be only as a Second Cycle wave, retracing a good portion of 2009-2015 advance and at some point in the future new bull wave to even higher levels begins.


But I do not have a stone hard opinion about All Ords. If you see an EW and XAO thread, most recently I dipped into very small time frames. This means that I do not know which wave we are in in the bigger picture at the moment. All I can see that Taiwan, Korea, Hog Kong and the most other Asian Indices just broke out from few years of consolidation, suggesting new bull wave has just started. India is in the middle of a third wave and there is nothing that can kill it.
All Ords could follow US(down) or the rest of the Asia (up) from here. Yes, It is hard to believe that there could be any separate directions, but in fact it could.



And in regard to Fibonacci-don't make a mistake by using it on monthly time frames. Fibonacci is a specific matrix in nature by which nature has a preference of manufacturing all living and most non living things.
Nature doesn't recognize time frames that are measured by humans-month or week. It only recognizes days and years, as Earth is turning round is axis in a Day and round the Sun in a Year.
Someone who started to count a week as seven days and month as 30 days could have just as easily made this ratio like 10 and 25 or whatewer, and none of this makes it as a Fibonacci unit.

I am doubt at all that Time can be measured in Fibonacci, as the only thing that is measured and proved is that electric Impulses between neurons in a human brain are sending communication signals in 0,618 intervals compared to the signal length. The rest is either a bogus or not discovered and proved by empirical observations. So Using Fibonacci to measure Time is risky and not worht to put your money on it.

A completely different thing is the Size and Form of the patterns-they are highly dependable on Fibonacci proportions, that's why FIB "works" in stock market.
The same can be said on all other things-human brain recognizes things as "beautifull" if they have a Golden Ratio proportions-cars, music instruments, furniture, houses, pictures and so on.


By saying that I meant that Monthly Fibonacci is just a coincidence, like many things in the Market.

Porper as usual-he wants to see all waves in the market Textbook. Good luck with that.

And by the way-I do not believe people on this forum saying that they are short or long any particular stock or index, as they usually say this after the fact. I only accept when someone said about entering a market in real time, which are a minority on this forum.

Cheers.

 

[gartley]

Refer to my post #9452: In my opinion for now we headed south at least to the wave e or apex of the traiangle at 5270 on the ASX200 until the first week of May and that's how I will be trading it. Not sure thereafter.
I don't have to prove anything to you Rimtas, but if you want to see proof in the form of brokerage statements and also the analysis that was done in 2009 and 2007 and that has now been archived from various websites due to it being such a long time ago, leave me your an email in your mailbox and I am happy to send)))

By the way, I didn't understand a word of your post in the link you posted as I can't read Lithuanian!!

The decline from 2007 to 2009 in my opinion was never best counted as an impulse if you looked at the internal subdivisions closely at the time. Although it did appear like an impulse from the weekly chart.
Your predecessor ozwaveguy on the Elliottwave and XAO thread had it all wrong back then calling for a continuation of the bear market even after the low in March 2009 had been posted. He too claimed an impulse at the time and was waiting for waves 4 and 5 which never came.

 

[rimtas]

By the way, I didn't understand a word of your post in the link you posted as I can't read Lithuanian!!.

The full analysis was written in English, just follow that link, I hope you can see atwo nice DJIA charts out there. But I can copy paste if you can't see it for whatewer reason:

http://spekuliantai.tv3.lt/rimtas-lt/dienorastis/irasas/1509

"Long-term DJIA waves and momentum indicators

rimtas.lt | 2011-01-18 23:25 |





Indicators of stock market momentum almost always announce the beginning of a huge bull market. They do so by creating a tremendously overbought condition in the initial stage of advance. While this tendency is noticeable at all degrees of trend, the Annual ROC is particulary useful in judging the strenght of "kick-off" momentum in large waves of Cycle and Supercycle degree.

The fact that in February 2010 this indicator almost hit 50% level is a strong confirmation that it marks the beginning of at least five Primary waves containing bull market, which will carry the DJIA to new all time higs. In other words, Feb 2010 marked the start of something more than what has come to be regarded as the norm, a 1-year bull market followed by a 2 year bear(2007-2009).





There is one more interesting development on the sentiment front (not shown)-the AAII sentiment Survey, Investors Inteligence advisors survey, Daily Sentiment Index-they all are registering much more extreme levels than they ever saw in April 2010, and some of them are registering the most bullish readings ever in the DJIA history (fund managers are holding record low cash of only 3,4%).



This assessment has been proved by now, with the DJIA over 600 points higher than when the sentiment figures first gave sell signals based on the old parameters back in April last year. Sentiment figures are a function of the vitality and extent of the market in progress. The fact that the sentiment readings of April 2010 top have been exceeded is more good evidence that the Supercycle (V) Wave on the DJIA has begun.

Remember, this kick-off is just the setup phase. As Advance further develops, sentiment indicators should reach much more extreme levels than they ever saw in the April 2010. Put/call ratios and ten day averages are valuable as far as they go, but they are best interpreted within the context of the broad sweep of market events.


The only unclear picture is the degree of the advance, but it is possible to say that the most realistic picture is that we will experience a Supercycle (V) bull market, which contains of V Cycle waves, which every further Cycle wave subdivides in five Primary waves. Total amount of this Supercycle Wave (V) is 24 Primary waves, we have completed just 2 of them, so it could take a couple of decades to complete them all (in probabilistic terms)."





And yes, please send me your previous analysis for long term market direction from the period of 2009-2011, or links to them. Don't hesistate to put them in public in this forum, as the whole purpose of writing them is a part of social interaction. Emails and private messages just kills it and takes away all the fun. I do not need your brokerage statements, this is not the purpose of discussion.

 

[tinhat]

Low of the decision point area is based on a 1.272 times the last run up projected down from the most recent high.
It lines up almost perfectly with a 61.8% overall retracement.

This is significant imo, if the 5520 area doesn't hold then its brace position folks.
Just my

(click to expand)

Hi Boggo

Thanks for the MTPredictor chart. Would you consider it "significant" if the XJO fell below the MTPredictor decision point because it is both the MTPredictor decision point AND the 61.8% retrace (fibonacci)? The MTPredictor decision point is not calculated using fibonacci or Elliot Wave, is that correct? It is more of a VSA indicator? So, would you consider the fall below that point significant because one indicator is confirming the other?

I spent some time the other day looking over the MTPredictor website and some of their youtube videos. Will definitely look into and consider it more.

 

[gartley]

I will try and upload them again Rimtas. Assuming it's possible due to file size constraints on this site.

By the way, it's not my analysis that should be in question here but yours, because your forecasting has not exactly been great. Have you forgotten your last chart and forecast of post #9468????
Is the Gartley pattern doomed?))) Well not yet

 

[Boggo]

Hi Boggo

Thanks for the MTPredictor chart. Would you consider it "significant" if the XJO fell below the MTPredictor decision point because it is both the MTPredictor decision point AND the 61.8% retrace (fibonacci)? The MTPredictor decision point is not calculated using fibonacci or Elliot Wave, is that correct? It is more of a VSA indicator? So, would you consider the fall below that point significant because one indicator is confirming the other?

I spent some time the other day looking over the MTPredictor website and some of their youtube videos. Will definitely look into and consider it more.

Expand the the chart below for a basic explanation and example of the the software generated Decision Points.

 

[tinhat]

Expand the the chart below for a basic explanation and example of the the software generated Decision Points.

Thanks for the additional explanation. I don't want to drag this thread off-topic, but I assume that MTPredictor has back-tested this as an indicator? I would be curious to know its success rate at identifying a turning point. You obviously find it significant, but without knowing the success rate it is just an arbitrary point at which one can say "this may go up or it may go down form here".

 

[Boggo]

Thanks for the additional explanation. I don't want to drag this thread off-topic

Moved to here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27370&p=871049&viewfull=1#post871049

 

[rimtas]

Is the Gartley pattern doomed?))) Well not yet

I Appreciate your maners, thanks.


Well, I must agree that I was a bit early in saying that. Technically, Gartley pattern will be considered doomed if All Ords manage to advance to new highs before it makes a five wave decline of Intermediate Degree. And as an Elliotician with 15 years of experience you know it.
Basicaly This Pattern is pointing to a Cycle Degree decline of All Ords to 1000, and if market manages to get away in the next 12 month with just a three wave correction down(somewhere between 4500-5000, then after the first Impulsive advance from the bottom the ods af Gartley being doomed will rise significantly.

Just out of Curiosity(to keep discusion and entertainment going)-what is the base of Gartley patterns, what message they carry? Or they are just pure technicall qualitative patterns?
For example-Wave Principle is a barometer of social mood, that is best reflected in price fluctuations in financial markets. It carries a message of the emotional state of market participants. And Gartley?

 

[Smurf1976]

This Pattern is pointing to a Cycle Degree decline of All Ords to 1000

Just wondering what the timeframe would be for that?

From a more fundamental economic perspective, the All Ords dropping to 1000 is a pretty massive "blood in the streets" type of event I'd think. Outright economic depression to go with it?

I'm not really questioning the analysis as such, just trying to get my mind around it given that it's a pretty massive prediction to have the All Ords fall that far.

 

[Porper]

Just wondering what the timeframe would be for that?

From a more fundamental economic perspective, the All Ords dropping to 1000 is a pretty massive "blood in the streets" type of event I'd think. Outright economic depression to go with it?

I'm not really questioning the analysis as such, just trying to get my mind around it given that it's a pretty massive prediction to have the All Ords fall that far.

I would take that prediction with a pinch of salt.

Prechter of Elliott Wave international has been advocating DOW to 100 for well over 10 years to my knowledge. Trouble with Elliott Wave fanatics is that they make the wave counts fit their original prediction. There is nothing in the longer term charts portending a significant retracement any time soon. Armageddon isn't coming

 

[rimtas]

<...Trouble with Elliott Wave fanatics ..>

<...There is nothing in the longer term charts portending a significant retracement any time soon. Armageddon isn't coming..>

I am just one year on this forum, but as far as I can see you are the biggest EW fanatic out there. You hold EWP as a Bibble and each time market makes a wave, you say "this can't be true", despite 80% of the moves in the market are not even mentioned in EWP. Big Fanatics even have an Elliot Avatar, and also they do not post any analysis, just teaching everyone around how waves should look.

And of course you can see what can't happen, but it is a paradox that you can't see what can happen. If you know what can't, you should know what can.



And just for the record-longer term charts do have a small window to realize the drop to 1000, and the confluence of technical circumstances are pointing that this window is now. Not the 5 or 10 years from now. With Eurozone spreading Deflation around the world and with Central Banks failing to boost inflation and at least keep positive sentiment afloat, the time is just perfect.

You underestimated Prechter. He predicted Deflation, when everyone was calling it a Banana and that the Deflation in current monetary system is impossible. Despite his failed forecasts for stock market top, all other markets he predicted are crashing either since 1999, others since 2007 and 2011. The only markets left are stocks. Whether they turn and crash with the rest is yet to be seen.

 

[gartley]

I posted this chart in the Elliott Wave Analysis thread some weeks back. This thread is probably a more appropriate one so I have updated it here.

These are the Medium Term Delta Cycles for the All Ords that I use as a guide in my analysis. I say guide because it's exactly that, and NOT precision timing. All the cycle points are projections in time and their position relative to the y axis is not being considered here.

The cycles of late have been quite good. Firstly the cycle point 14 ( blue arrows pointed to all cycle point 14's occurring the last 3 years). As can be seen this cycle point always occurs approx 10 candles ( plus or minus 3) to the left of the vertical red line from 2013. Take note of the cycle points 15,16 and 1 and where they historically occur to the right of the vertical red line historically. They don't always come exactly in the same place but you get my drift. Cycle point 1 historically comes between 1/3 to 1/2 of the way between the red and blue vertical lines.
So taking the chart at face value, we would expect some sort of cycle low between now and 17th June.

There is a caveat however. Historically cycle point 1 has been a low in an up trending market. IF the trend has changed now to down, the translation of point 1 may change and it maybe dragged further to the right by 3-4 candles.
So at this stage not willing to stick my neck out and call a time when the downtrend will end for this leg down, because these cycles don't always work out. ( But then again nothing else works all the time

 

[rimtas]

IF the trend has changed now to down, the translation of point 1 may change and it maybe dragged further to the right by 3-4 candles.

It is a good point. I wanted to comment earlier about those cycles as they seems to be good only when the market is trending in one direction, and as far as I can see they are purely based on quantitative measures and do not recognize that Market is a Fractal. Basicaly you need to adjust them now from the top in order for them to work in the same manner as in uptrend, because if trend is down, they start failing significantly providing false signals.

But at this stage as we have new lows I think Wave Principle points at the same result-market is declining in "threes", so Leading Diagonal is at work with final wave reaching some resistance below and then a relief rally for the rest of the year should follow.

 

[IFocus]

Ritmas are the banks looking at a 5 wave count....down?

 

[gartley]

Agreed the market declining in 3's so the pattern in play maybe corrective. I would label your 4 however as smaller degree C or even X. So most likely the wave to follow will be an impulse and fast move or capitulation down because wave C's or X's are similar in nature to 3rd waves.

Will be an interesting next few weeks))

 

[gartley]

As a comparison to the All Ords, the German DAX medium term Delta cycles have been tracking reasonably well of late and point to continued decline once again at least till mid June.

 

[gartley]

Agreed the market declining in 3's so the pattern in play maybe corrective. I would label your 4 however as smaller degree C or even X.

Apologies, meant to say smaller degree B or even X not C))

 

[gartley]

Just some thoughts on two stocks with major weightings in the All Ords. Both quite bearish and concur with earlier analysis of All Ords. The shark pattern which is a variant of the Gartley worked out well here, not to mention the 3 lower highs which portend a capitulation move down into a low in the coming week or so.