Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

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The long term quarterly chart is the US index, SPX (S&P 500).

But just to make the point, do you think we're nearer the beginning or the end, of this leg in the market. Bear in mind, the futs say, the XAO will break to the down side of the latest trading range on Monday.

Craig James of CommSec, will not be deterred, it's all sunshine, golden sprinkles and candy swirls.

SPX_Jan2016_mark.png
 
2008 GFC gives a guide to the nature of bear markets in terms of time and drawdown. Even though it was overall bigger than most bear markets, it still had similar components.

ASX 2008 GFC.png
 
Three touches to a weekly downtrend line, which is still in place. It now provides a good reference point for the (longed for) future change in trend.

XAO_29Jan2016_mark.png
 
Not the most technically correct but a small head & shoulder pattern could be in play for a move back to 5,400ish

Screen Shot 2016-03-02 at 9.40.16 PM.png
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
It looks like one long downtrend to me with lower lows and lower highs. I always stand back a metre from any chart before looking at it any way closely. Just my opinion.

gg
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The one year chart, for the All-Ords, appears to support GG. Lower lows and lower highs. The market would have to break out above the upper channel bar and move above 5350 before I called a recovery. More likely, in the shorter term, to go to a volatile sideways pattern in my humble opinion.

xao 2016-03-02 1yr.png
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Top of wedge. Solid buying last week might suggest we hang around the top line for a while.
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I think there's a strong resemblance to what happened last time...

x.png

History may rhyme or it may repeat... or it may do it's own thing.

But the strong reversal today in the stocks which rallied the hardest (BHP, FMG, WOR etc) may be a sign of things to come, especially if the financials are to join in.
 
rnr said:
Bullish Hidden divergence was evident for the next 2 bars and finally played out today.:xyxthumbs
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Didn't play out but that is t.a. MACD can be interpreted a number of ways and my standard didn't show a divergence but the MACD does cross down below signal line suggesting further down. The lag is terrible though.


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Wysiwyg said:
Didn't play out but that is t.a. MACD can be interpreted a number of ways and my standard didn't show a divergence but the MACD does cross down below signal line suggesting further down. The lag is terrible though.
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Hi Wysiwyg

I use the Stochastic, rather than the MACD, to detect divergence.

My comment that the Bullish Hidden Divergence, as signaled, had played out was based on a higher High on the March 31st bar as well as a higher Close than the previous bar (day). Had this price action not occurred then the Hidden Bullish Divergence may still be evident.
Although this divergence played out I have not made any comment on the profitability of a trade.
 
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