XAO Technical Analysis

[skc]

I reckon tech/a is typing on a small screen mobile device which is going to the next line and auto capping.

That is absolutely what I thought as well.

See here.

If it was deliberate, tech/a's talent knows no bounds.

 

[rb250660]

I reckon tech/a is typing on a small screen mobile device which is going to the next line and auto capping.

Ok, I'm betting on this as well. Set us straight tech.

 

[Ves]

If it was deliberate, tech/a's talent knows no bounds.

Maybe his phone is the reincarnation of Homer?

 

[cynic]

Has the "XAO Analysis and Banter" thread been merged with this one?

(I must have missed the memo!)

 

[tech/a]

Mystery solved!

 

[Joe Blow]

The XAO Banter Thread is still active.

Please post any general XAO observations and discussion over there, and any charts and technical analysis discussion in here. Thanks!

 

[Logique]

Will do Joe.

Well done Tech and Pav on the haiku

 

[Logique]

Yes it's an All Ords thread, but many, if not most, would see some correlation with the US market.

I find the volatility VIX index (US market) a useful reference. The chart below compares it monthly in recent years to the Dow.

Seems to be 'steady as she goes' for now.

 

[gartley]

I am new to this website but thought I would share some thoughts on a potential Gartley pattern forming on the ASX200 monthly chart. Interestingly we currently sit at 89 months since the 2009 peak.

It maybe a difficult market in the months ahead of this ends up being a valid pattern

 

[Porper]

I am new to this website but thought I would share some thoughts on a potential Gartley pattern forming on the ASX200 monthly chart. Interestingly we currently sit at 89 months since the 2009 peak.

It maybe a difficult market in the months ahead of this ends up being a valid pattern

I find these patterns can just as easily prove to be continuation setups as opposed to reversal...just like the Butterfly. I scan for them but i.m.o. not the most reliable.

 

[gartley]

I find these patterns can just as easily prove to be continuation setups as opposed to reversal...just like the Butterfly. I scan for them but i.m.o. not the most reliable.

Sure they can porper. But it's no different to EW or any other pattern, we are dealing with probabilities.

 

[gartley]

Porper. Market is retreating today and i don't think a continuation of the uptrend in the near term will happen. Just on EW, the thrust up we had from mid Jan was a fifth wave. We had a contracting triangle w4 and these are penultimate patterns to the last move up.

In my opinion for now we headed south at least to the wave e or apex of the traiangle at 5270 on the ASX200 until the first week of May and that's how I will be trading it. Not sure thereafter.

 

[rimtas]

I am new to this website but thought I would share some thoughts on a potential Gartley pattern forming on the ASX200 monthly chart. Interestingly we currently sit at 89 months since the 2009 peak.

It maybe a difficult market in the months ahead of this ends up being a valid pattern

You can wait till ASX reaches 6050-6100 and then post your chart again, just the arow pointing down should be 10 times shorter.

Just on EW, the thrust up we had from mid Jan was a fifth wave. We had a contracting triangle w4 and these are penultimate patterns to the last move up..

Yea, this count is the main count at EWI. They still keep looking for the top that is non-existing here. Last year their counted five waves as well, after the correction and move up-they still counting five, streching the limits and fulfiling their dreams....
And at the same time they are counting series one's and two's for the Aian Pasific Index, third wave for India, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and similar countries in the region. Maybe it is a marketing strategy here-same region, two different counts, one wins for sure. But this has nothing to do with money making.

 

[gartley]

Hello Rimtas,

I posted that chart because at the current juncture there is a confluence of patterns coming together such as symmetrical Gartley pattern and possible ABC upward correction form the March 2009 low that has a chance of terminating between now and Sep/Oct 2015 and the 89 month duration thus far from the 2007 peak.
This is merely an observation.

I know nothing at all about EWI and anything stated is purely my own thinking at present although I have used EW for over 17 years but do not consider myself to be a hard core Elliotician. Having said that, in my opinion the key is the pattern and not the wave count.

By the way, how is TLS))

 

[rimtas]

Thanks Gartley,
Re TLS market proved that my count was doomed, so I bited a 2% loss on that new position immediately when the Impulsive channel was broken again. I wish I could provide another chart, but I don't like to guess and at this stage TLS wave structure is a mystery to me, I do not see any operative count upon which I would be willing to put my money.
I still hold my previous position which was bought last year(well below $6), but to close it I need a short signal, which is still not here.

This means that I must simply wait for the count to resolve itself, which it always does. And while this is happening, there are other opportunities in blue chips (I trade only large).

And sorry, I can't comment on Gartley patterns, I am not familiar with them and I do not want to be.

 

[gartley]

You can wait till ASX reaches 6050-6100 and then post your chart again, just the arow pointing down should be 10 times shorter.

Well 2-3 months have passed rimtas since that textbook Gartley pattern I posted and that you bagged in post #9449. Your EW bullish count for 6100 target was a dud. There has been textbook Ending Diagonal patterns that has been forming in the SP500 and DJIA for most of the year which always made a trend continuation a very low probability. Need to look at that first.

I have been using EW as one of my primary forms of analysis for over 15 years. Although it can be powerful, used on it's own it's not enough to find decent high probability setups on a consistent basis.

So as I type I think our market (All Ords) is about 50-60% along it's projected down move. Looks like we should get a descent move down between now and end of next week.

 

[rimtas]

since that textbook Gartley pattern I posted and that you bagged in post #9449..

Thanks Gartley for your input. If you used EW for 15 years and did not find it useful, I think you got catched up by the boiling frog effect. You know-when you see that it is true, but can't employ it for buy/sell signals, waiting "other day" or "other month" or "other year" for situation to get clearer. You must have dropped it earlier.

Gartley patterns are the form of technical analysis that involves wishfull thinking. You can see them everywhere you want. Like pennants, flags, Triangles(not EW triangles) and other. I do not know anyone who is making a consistent positive returns using them. Your most recent Gartley means nothing. If you think otherwise, you are always welcome to prove your forecasting abilities in a shorter time frames, because market is a fractal and there is no any difference between longer term patterns and say, 1 min. or 1 hour chart patterns.

I started to use EW just ~5 years ago but since the moment I catched up with it, It has got clear to me that Elliott Waves are the only truly robust methodology for financial analysis. All other approaches to market forecasting I have studied either don’t work or are transient and eventually burn out.

Market form EW perspective currently sits at the juncture where it can crash to 1000 points in the years to come. All we need to see is five waves down(seen in weekly) from the top as a confirmation. But three wave rise from the 2009 has also other alternatives, with one of them hitting new ATH and never looking back in the next decade.

Aside from that which method "works" and which "don't", all that matters is how you use the knowledge to capitalize in.
If you see a crash, tell us better how you positioned for it-you must have sold your property/ies already, closed all your bank accounts, sold your shares, moved your supper to cash, got cash under the matress, moved into a countryside away from the city for safety. Because after you see big monthly bars down, you won't be able to perform those actions as opportunities will be gone and you will be tanking with the rest of the crowd.

Australia had not experienced any crashes (or at least corrections that lasted more than 5 years) in the past 150 years. If the market will tank now, it would be already 8 years from 2007 top, so this one should be really significant, historical event, that wipes out the label of "lucky country" from everyone's minds.

I personally open to all possibilities and I know exactly what I will do if I see any of them developing in the early stages. So don't be too much exited ahead of the time.

 

[rimtas]

So as I type I think our market (All Ords) is about 50-60% along it's projected down move

I think it will not happen this time. The entire Asian Region is in bull market(leading by India and Japan). Correlation between ASX and DJIA is not constant, there were moments in history when US bear roared while Asian bulls soared.

If you are good at seeing EW patterns you should see this one. You know what it means. It means that your most recent Gartley is doomed.

 

[gartley]

Rimtas I came to this thread with a trading idea based on a high probability patterns. The one that was most apparent at the time was the Gartley pattern because there was strong confluence along with Fibonacci time analysis.*After that post a high probability 5 wave structure completed on the weekly chart of the All Ordinaries as well as cycles peaking,*adding even more weight the analysis .

I took a short position at that time which I still hold to this day and plan to hold for another 2 weeks and then I will review or at least take partial profits.

I made no mention of certainties when I made that post only that it was a high probability. It could have easily been a dud setup, but that is the business of trading.**You rubbished it, saying we had much higher to move.

In your last post re the ASX200, I know exactly what you are talking about (the impulse up from the low).

You are making one grave mistake Rimtas. You are only working with one main count. There are a myriad of EW counts possible at this juncture, and just because we got an impulse off a low does not mean it’s not part of a corrective move up(which it was because the market has tanked since then). In this case it may have been part of an expanded flat (note I say MAY). There are no certainties. In many ways EW is a lagging form of analysis because you can only fully distinguish a pattern after it’s already completed and the market moves a certain direction.

It’s one of the foundations of my toolbox alongside other methodologies. But for most who use it only in isolation, they have no more of an edge in the market than a coin flip. Ofcourse there are exceptions as some Ellioticians have developed very good and profitable startegies.

I used EW alongside my cycles analysis to find the low in March 2009 to the very week. The same the methodology was accurate accurate to within 3 months in 2007. That does not guarantee future success but I do see it as an edge.

*

Right now I have no idea if we are headed for a bear market. Absolutely no idea.**In terms of EW we have high probability Ending Diagonal that has formed in the DJIA and SP500 over the last 5-6 months and the probability is quite high these markets will tank back to the origin of these Ending Diagonals which is even more weight to add to the argument our market will decline in the weeks ahead and a major correction.

*

In so far as the Asian markets go, I don’t know, with the exception of the Nikkei225 which I think is in a Bull Market after ending the 20 year cycle in 2009. Having said that I believe it will go back down and test it’s lows first.

 

[Porper]

You are making one grave mistake Rimtas. You are only working with one main count. There are a myriad of EW counts possible at this juncture

Very true, for the XJO at least.

Elliott Wave is all well and good when clarity is glaring you in the face....or using hindsight of course.

The other problem with it is that people tend to force a count on a chart purely because of their beliefs. One person on this thread has done this with the banks for example. if it's an impulse down then it is not an a-b-c correction...end of story. Stretching wave-c to 10x the length of wave a as in the NAB example is just plain wrong. Making incorrect wave counts is usually based on emotion, which we all suffer from when using a discretionary system.