XAO Technical Analysis

[Wysiwyg]

Thought I would add some observations. The G.C. Lane Stochastic Oscillator places value on the close price and this Stochastic representation shows the relationship between XAO lows and the Stochastic Oscillator over recent years. Getting near that Stoch. low now it does appear along with past resistance level 5200. The DOW closed near low on Saturday morning with around 500 points shed over the past two sessions. More down here yet I assume.

 

[rimtas]

I am not sure how to interpret DOW waves, as it looks like it just broke out of Ending Diagonal, which means it is just a start of decline, that should carry another 10% down to the 14700 area, which corresponds with around 4500 on ASX at least.
Though there is no exact correlation between two (in terms of waves),but if DOW enters Third wave now, I believe more panic selling we'll get here also, despite ASX already looking like it is seeking to find a first wave bottom.

 

[rimtas]

Price action and wave structure from the bottom suggests that wave i (circled) is in. Banks holding higher, BHP made five waves from the bottom creating a fracturing market into the end of decline which further confirms that a rebound is underway.

The most likely targets for wave ii (circled, not shown), could be previous iv (5422) or (iv) (5333) wave resistance areas, or 38,2; 50; 61,8 fib retracement levels. The good target area is also a trendline from 2012 low which in October runs through 5380-5420 level.
Second waves can retrace up to 99% but in this case I expect a rally will be minimal, carrying prices another ~3-4% higher from todays levels.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Guys,
What do we have here ?
Bearish Megaphone ??
Give us your input ... this could end up with some wild swings in the near future.
Good for traders but if this breaks downward the projection is quite huge. Not good if you want to buy stocks
Cheers,

 

[rimtas]

It is bullish, just not sure for how long.

Cash is a bit different from your futures chart, but the message is the same.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Hi Rimtas,

Thank's for the input, I don't see how it's bullish, feel fre to enlighten me on a possible label or meaning behind your call.

I guess it's wait and see ..

 

[Wysiwyg]

More down here yet I assume.

Interestingly the low was put in on Monday the 13th/10 while the heavy down Wednesday 15th/10 held strong. Close up of previous chart after one week. Probably oversold and a bounce in play. 5350 had several hits for support before so might be some resistance. Hope not as I am long stocks.

 

[dlineinvestor]

If a higher low is formed at 5250 area then it's up from there, if that breaks to Mon's low and doesn't hold then a lower low from Monday level is the last chance for this recovery.

 

[Wysiwyg]

If a higher low is formed at 5250 area then it's up from there, if that breaks to Mon's low and doesn't hold then a lower low from Monday level is the last chance for this recovery.

The type of low is another factor to consider. A vee bottom or a period of consolidation. Wonder what the Mr. Bigs are going to do?

 

[CanOz]

Here's my take for a bit of fun....

I reckon the wedge pattern is in play and we see a retest of that around 5400...That also the last value area. If that fails then i'm punting on a test of 4600, but not before Christmas. I still reckon we'll have a :chimney Rally....but it might be another short covering rally from a newer low after 5100 is taken out.

Heres a daily and weekly of the SPI...

 

[SuperGlue]

More than 1/3 of Dow stocks to report on Monday onwards.
So will be interesting week ahead.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mo...this-week-2014-10-19?link=MW_home_latest_news

 

[Wysiwyg]

Chart below shows what appears to be the peak & trough of a divergence between XAO and DJIA. Following this there could be a convergence or DJIA could join us and possibly accelerate our down trend. DJIA white, XAO black.

 

[Sean K]

There's obviously some massive long term support in the blue area, although the MACD is falling over at the moment.



Buy with long term with confidence until that is broken.

 

[Logique]

Really apreciate everyone's contributions to this thread, thanks so much.

I had a look at this in my own way. As far as I can see, on monthly data it's not looking too brilliant for the XAO.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Nikkei about to break 2007 high while XAO languishes well below 2007 highs. Certainly tough going with the resource boom over. FTSE walking the all time high line. Dow nudging 18000, President says skip Moon, we're going to Mars.

Monthly chart.

Dow - Black
XAO - White
Nikkei - Yellow
FTSE - Blue

 

[piggybank]

Well there we are - just a bee's dick away from the low in October. I wonder how many of the "so called" experts expected it to be below the 5,000 mark going into next year? I'm not saying it will but the odds are getting shorter... Click on the chart if you want it larger!!

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[notting]

I'm hearing Santa.
Oils turning.
And Gold is coming off.

 

[Paavfc]

Well there we are - just a bee's dick away from the low in October. I wonder how many of the "so called" experts expected it to be below the 5,000 mark going into next year? I'm not saying it will but the odds are getting shorter... Click on the chart if you want it larger!!

View attachment 60755​

Decent rebound off the lows today..5000 no chance in fact I see 5495 by years end..

 

[PinguPingu]

This is usually when the superfunds step in and buy up the big franked divvie stocks, not sure if they'll pull off an 11th hour santa rally though.

 

[TheUnknown]

So called big paid experts are very bearish on OIL.......well they don't get paid big bucks for nothing. Under 5000 in next few weeks.