Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

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Gringotts Bank said:
I think another down day tomorrow to give a lower low pivot - target 4300 approx.

Then a push back up to 4370 approx.

Then back down.
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Failing at the potentially bullish support line means more sideways to down for the minute. Agree with 4300 around the support line and also 200d ma. From there probably back up towards resistance but then who knows.

XAO 14 Apr.gif
 
So folks, are through yet or not? The XAO has been much cleaner and obeying the rising support trend-line than the XJO. We have through the danger zone again and if this continues, we have to believe we are in an up-trend. The only worrying thing for me is that net volume on up days is less than met volume on down days, hence the OBV is trailing off, even though prices are moving higher. A sign of weakness? I can't find a precedent for this kind of divergence before on an the XAO so I am not sure what to make of it.
XAO20120419.png
 
TrendGAIN said:
So folks, are through yet or not? The XAO has been much cleaner and obeying the rising support trend-line than the XJO. We have through the danger zone again and if this continues, we have to believe we are in an up-trend. The only worrying thing for me is that net volume on up days is less than met volume on down days, hence the OBV is trailing off, even though prices are moving higher. A sign of weakness? I can't find a precedent for this kind of divergence before on an the XAO so I am not sure what to make of it.
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As Alan Kohler said on the tele tonight, the aussie share market is trending up, down and sideways. It just depends on how you read the chart.
 
tinhat said:
As Alan Kohler said on the tele tonight, the aussie share market is trending up, down and sideways. It just depends on how you read the chart.
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Well, it's time periods really.

EW is closer to telling us where we are in the cycles and should be able to give us a probability of where to next after there is a clear move here. It seems to be important to me in a mid - longer term sense.
 
Can someone assist me with the XJO.

If I look at the intraday OHLC chart for y/d it effectively opened strong then fell away all day, yet if I look at a daily OHLC chart it gives the impression that it gapped up slightly, ran up quite a number of points then fell away.

I understand that this is due to the ASX openeing in tranches over the first 10 minutes of the day but it greatly influences the visual interpretation of the days trading. Is there away around this?
 
kid hustlr said:
Can someone assist me with the XJO.

If I look at the intraday OHLC chart for y/d it effectively opened strong then fell away all day, yet if I look at a daily OHLC chart it gives the impression that it gapped up slightly, ran up quite a number of points then fell away.

I understand that this is due to the ASX openeing in tranches over the first 10 minutes of the day but it greatly influences the visual interpretation of the days trading. Is there away around this?
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You have to use the SPI futs (ASX200) cash hours.

SPI 06-12 (840 Min) 26_04_2012.jpg
 
Trembling Hand said:
You have to use the SPI futs (ASX200) cash hours.

View attachment 46871
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Still struggling with it.

My understanding is the futures value will be slightly different to the cash market?

ie if you look at the futures from 10-4 mon to friday, they don't match up with what the asx 200 is doing in the cash market exactly.

Am I correct in saying that the graph you posted shows the gaps/correct action from day to day (as it only shows the data in the hours the cash market is open) but the numbers wont correspond exactly?
 
kid hustlr said:
Still struggling with it.

My understanding is the futures value will be slightly different to the cash market?

ie if you look at the futures from 10-4 mon to friday, they don't match up with what the asx 200 is doing in the cash market exactly.

Am I correct in saying that the graph you posted shows the gaps/correct action from day to day (as it only shows the data in the hours the cash market is open) but the numbers wont correspond exactly?
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Yep Futs value comes from the underlying instrument, in this case XJO less cost of carry(interest) and less expected earnings (divs). So the actual numbers are rarely the same but the % and point moves are pretty much tick for tick, give or take a few.

So ignore the absolute price levels but the pattern and point moves are correct.
 
If it walks like an uptrend and quacks like an uptrend, its an uptrend. Although we are only one point above the close of the breakout on the 28th of March, this thing is swinging higher. Its good to see positive volume swinging up to support the move, but it looks like we are at a short-term top. However, the SPI futures did have a good run up Friday night, so we will see what news breaks over the weekend to support, or otherwise this move.
XAO20120427.png
 
On my chart, weekly resistance is just above (4532ish). If the U.S. indices had not done retracement, the resistance was already broken.

xao.png
 
No surprises here, just how long to get through is the question I guess !

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Boggo said:
No surprises here, just how long to get through is the question I guess !

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Agree, but would be even more convinced if the 4400 ish line was tested and proved support again.
 
kennas said:
Agree, but would be even more convinced if the 4400 ish line was tested and proved support again.
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Agree, we need a bounce off that area.

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Not to beat into proverbial bear drum but there is a clear divergence between Volume Weighted MACD and the price action in the last 3 months. We are due for correction in the near term in my opinion.

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Andruha said:
Not to beat into proverbial bear drum but there is a clear divergence between Volume Weighted MACD and the price action in the last 3 months. We are due for correction in the near term in my opinion.
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Surely that squiggly line is just a showing the reduction in volatility since Sep Oct last year?
 
Trembling Hand said:
Surely that squiggly line is just a showing the reduction in volatility since Sep Oct last year?
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I'd take it that by "squiggly line" you refer to an indicator shown. Sure there has been a reduction in volatility on the market since late last year, but the current move up seems to diverge from a number of indicators not just the one shown on the chart. Throw in Money Flow Index or even normal MACD. Sure the divergence does not necessary means correction but it surely increase the likelihood of it.

Also with MFI and VWMACD - since they are derived from volume-price action the falling indicator means falling volume even in the face of rising prices. If it was a true uptrend should the volume confirm the move?
 
I'd normally use the histogram to show divergence, not the signal line.

But hey, that's just me...i honestly don't even use a MACD anymore.

CanOz
 
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