XAO Technical Analysis

[Sean K]

so you saying if it doesnt go up its bearish?

that area doesnt look like an area whatsoever to me

Bearish, as in no definite break from sideways I suppose. Looks like an area to me. But I suppose we can put circles and lines around anything we choose and turn into EW.

 

[willstor]

Opened up a very small sell CFD on the Aussie 200 as a hedge. Be very surprised to see 4450 broken this week. With a strong Aussie dollar profit taking euro budget arguments Israel conflict and the fiscal cliff resolution looking like it's built-in to the current levels I see a fall to 4380.

 

[Joules MM1]

Opened up a very small sell CFD on the Aussie 200 as a hedge. Be very surprised to see 4450 broken this week. With a strong Aussie dollar profit taking euro budget arguments Israel conflict and the fiscal cliff resolution looking like it's built-in to the current levels I see a fall to 4380.

those are specific levels based on loose anecdotes.....what is your uncle point....?.

wot did your cfd close at this morning.....

 

[willstor]

Down very slightly on the CFD. Portfolio up 6.5% last week.
Hardly needs the huge graph to see 4450 is the new resistance , and more than likely won't be left behind this week.

 

[Joules MM1]

Down very slightly on the CFD. Portfolio up 6.5% last week.
Hardly needs the huge graph to see 4450 is the new resistance , and more than likely won't be left behind this week.

up or down, you essentially start each session at zero, active or flat.....

price may often "look" at resistance, in other words, that's the new vpoc level, the point of volume control where one set of accounts says i'll sell each time we hit this zone, of course, each time that zone is hit it's because the accounts on the other side of that trade are taking price into that zone, otherwise, one set of accounts would exceed the supply or demand of the other side, what you might call pressure....the point is, at what point do you decide when one group applies enough pressure to trend to cause continuance? the answer is in the price and within those sizeable accounts the anecdotal ideas are already weighed and examined, i mean, the reason to be long or to close is already written by those accounts and rarely, if ever, examined and weighed correctly by the retail public....this brings you back to strictly price itself....the action you'll take at a specific level based upon price alone, not an anecdote or an abstract line on a chart or fundamental equation that cannot be dated......

resistance takes many shapes and forms, can come in a simple form of one buyer, a final buyer, simply refusing to pay a higher price and that's how many extremes of price are formed.....we are not yet seeing a strong, larger trend degree, of lower prices, yes, we are seeing lower hourly index price but the context is the key not the price direction within a single time frame......the context of anecdotal or fundamental ideas is far less reliable from a timing perspective than most traders admit, but, what it most definitley does, imhe, is cause a trader to slip unwittingly into an emotional logic that they find themselves defending to their own detriment......

again, IMHE

 

[kid hustlr]

My Opinion -the XJO



So after a series of higher highs and higher lows we had our first stumbling block as the XJO hit its first hurdle posting a lower high and then subsequently fell back to circa 4350 where it again found support. In the grand scheme of things I don't perceive it to be a reversal but perhaps just a retracement or a signal that we are moving back into a consolidation zone. No where does it look like we will fall back to the 4000 mark IMO. I think any dips from here are chances to buy to open.

As joules says though 3 days can change a lot but with the bond market still pricing in more cuts (see here) Most of the big cap stocks will continue to look appealing as fundies and investors continue their never ending quest for yield.

Given the yield on the ASX 200 is as good as you will find at any bank right now, I believe investors will continue to turn to riskier assets over time (albeit slowly), the ASX trailing P/E is also still below 15 and looks to have bottomed signalling an appetite for risk



Zooming out to the weekly and whilst the top was a bad sign, the long white week immediately following the long week down is a rejection of the lower prices IMO and a sign that buyers are willing to swamp sellers. The last several days supports this theory. The more I look at this chart the more I believe we won't test 4300 anytime soon.



Finally the old TH indicator. (Advance-Declines Chart, 10 day Avg)



I'm not sure what to make of this one to be honest. The lower highs suggest to me a fall in momentum yet as it stands this market is nowhere near overbought. The snap back from 16th November low was pretty convincing as well but I think ultimately this chart leaves me a little skeptical. I think it further supports that we are in a consolidation phase and we can expect some sideways movement.

After looking at all the data I believe we will be range bound for the next several months. Buy the dips (4300's) and sell soon after, then reverse and repeat. Keep the holding periods short. I think long term the risk is to the upside.

Just my 2c

 

[George Washingto]

My Opinion -the XJO

Where do you source the ASX P/E ratio and div yields from?

 

[Joules MM1]

My Opinion -the XJO



I'm not sure what to make of this one to be honest.

Just my 2c

tops, good reading....

another 2c to go in the pot:



i dont think the data within is enough to paint the true bigger picture, although, enough for short range context.....easier looking backwards, i know.....i think there's a lot more detail in there to had and that's dependant on what's being traded, for mine, trading the xjo with this data is a very good idea if i can tell the "story" within....

 

[tech/a]

Nice work Kid

Enjoyed the read.
Agree upside particularly shorter term.

 

[kid hustlr]

Where do you source the ASX P/E ratio and div yields from?

RBA website

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/by-subject.html

J,

You're a weapon, more food for thought.

52 week highs & lows would be interesting but I'm not sure where to find the data (without paying for it)

 

[brty]

52 week highs & lows would be interesting but I'm not sure where to find the data (without paying for it)

Is this what you are after?

http://www.afr.com/rw/AFR/Web/Tables/Share_Tables_Daily/2012-11-27/IIryda121127.xls

 

[Joules MM1]

healthy or not...the smalls just seem to go the wrong way month over month, all excuses aside

 

[tinhat]

healthy or not...the smalls just seem to go the wrong way month over month, all excuses aside

The XSO and XJO crossed over in May 2012. The XSO is in black and the XJO is in blue. So what does this say? The market is still risk off but there has been a flight to high yielding defensives. The big four banks, TLS. The NBN deal with TLS has been the catalyst for its turn around. CSL is going through the roof based on rerating of its fundamentals and earnings outlooks. Those companies make up a large weight of the XJO and despite BHP and RIO going in the other direction probably account for much of the rise in the XJO.

The market at the moment is being driven by the yield play. Ye Olde Retires are finding out that interest rates have fallen significantly as their term deposits expire. Its the old money in the bank versus in bank shares play. NAB is still offering fully franked grossed up yield of 10% with its share price languishing at 1998 levels.

The US fiscal cliff will need to be resolved before the market goes risk-on again. As Dr Doom Roubini says - when central banks hand out printed money it has to end up somewhere. Who knows where the next bubble will be; but if the reality of Europe and the USA remains massive structural government deficits funded by central bank money printing then that money is going to find need to find somewhere to go - productive or not.

 

[Joules MM1]

i might be waiting on side of mountain with mouth wide open for roast chicken to fly in......but....you get the idea....



https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/268517607848689664/photo/1

 

[Sean K]

i might be waiting on side of mountain with mouth wide open for roast chicken to fly in......but....you get the idea....

I like it. That will take us back to the 09 low, yes? Might have to sell my pants to get in around there.

 

[Joules MM1]

I like it. That will take us back to the 09 low, yes? Might have to sell my pants to get in around there.

the invoke of the old proverb is about the continuance of the divergent signals where (in the chart) the XSO fails to make confirming H/H's against the XJO

todays news....

11:30am AUD

Private Capital Expenditure q/q

forecast 2.1% previous 3.4%

 

[willstor]

up or down, you essentially start each session at zero, active or flat.....

price may often "look" at resistance, in other words, that's the new vpoc level, the point of volume control where one set of accounts says i'll sell each time we hit this zone, of course, each time that zone is hit it's because the accounts on the other side of that trade are taking price into that zone, otherwise, one set of accounts would exceed the supply or demand of the other side, what you might call pressure....the point is, at what point do you decide when one group applies enough pressure to trend to cause continuance? the answer is in the price and within those sizeable accounts the anecdotal ideas are already weighed and examined, i mean, the reason to be long or to close is already written by those accounts and rarely, if ever, examined and weighed correctly by the retail public....this brings you back to strictly price itself....the action you'll take at a specific level based upon price alone, not an anecdote or an abstract line on a chart or fundamental equation that cannot be dated......

resistance takes many shapes and forms, can come in a simple form of one buyer, a final buyer, simply refusing to pay a higher price and that's how many extremes of price are formed.....we are not yet seeing a strong, larger trend degree, of lower prices, yes, we are seeing lower hourly index price but the context is the key not the price direction within a single time frame......the context of anecdotal or fundamental ideas is far less reliable from a timing perspective than most traders admit, but, what it most definitley does, imhe, is cause a trader to slip unwittingly into an emotional logic that they find themselves defending to their own detriment......

again, IMHE

Thanks for this - I was wrong on the 4450 too

 

[Joules MM1]

....xjo now has 10 sessions without a close below the previous cash sessions low which is a nice run up thus far, much as one can ask of a bull run within a corrective phase....

prepare for a barrage of mutual fund advertising......"looking at this chart, over the long run....."

 

[nulla nulla]

Nice bounce. From what I've seen volumes are low. Still got a long way to go. A break above 4540 would be good. Probably due for a mini correction soon.

 

[Joules MM1]

view from the round window



a lof indecies appear slightly overheated, not the locals

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/11/30/bespokes-global-market-snapshot.html

Below is an updated look at our global market snapshot, which highlights the one-year trading range charts for the major indices of the twenty largest countries by market cap around the world (ex-US). In each chart, the light blue shading represents the index's "normal" trading range, which is between one standard deviation above and below the 50-day moving average. The red zone represents between one and two standard deviations above the 50-day moving average, while the green zone represents between one and two standard deviations below the 50-day. Moves into or above the red zone are considered overbought, while moves into or below the green zone are considered oversold.

While the market here in the US has bounced nicely over the last two weeks, the S&P 500 remains below its 50-day moving average. Most countries shown below are trading above their 50-days, and quite a few are even overbought. The overbought countries include Australia, Hong Kong, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Sweden and Switzerland. And while not overbought, Taiwan, the UK, Singapore and Spain are at the top of their trading ranges.

There are a few countries that aren't doing so well, however. These include Malaysia, Russia and China. China looks the worst by far.