Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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How come that equity curve remained positive during the 2007-2009 crash?
XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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I guess despite the big falls, people were still eager to trade and good stocks were still able to appreciate. Since Mar 2011, things have definitely been different, IMO.
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My tea leaves are saying that we are looking down the barrel of a possible correction to just over 4200, if that fails then we are looking at around 4140 for the next test.
I like the higher lows we have been getting but would like a new high to break out of this cycle of recent lower highs.
(click to expand)
I like the higher lows we have been getting but would like a new high to break out of this cycle of recent lower highs.
(click to expand)
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Agree.
I see you would like to see a breakout to the upside.
We are in this symmetrical triangle, which seems to come closer and closer to a breakout. If it is to the downside, then it XAO will probably go lower than 4140, and somehow I favour this scenario, mostly because I believe we are in a downtrend...though I struggle to find right now a catalyst for this (but hey, this can change at any minute).
I get a sense that most people think it will break to the upside, and this is quite possible. Reasonable resolve of European crisis for this week, some better than expected results in the US...and up we go...
cheers,
I see you would like to see a breakout to the upside.
We are in this symmetrical triangle, which seems to come closer and closer to a breakout. If it is to the downside, then it XAO will probably go lower than 4140, and somehow I favour this scenario, mostly because I believe we are in a downtrend...though I struggle to find right now a catalyst for this (but hey, this can change at any minute).
I get a sense that most people think it will break to the upside, and this is quite possible. Reasonable resolve of European crisis for this week, some better than expected results in the US...and up we go...
cheers,
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Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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How about we creep higher and let more and more short sellers join in and then have a couple of strong days up to trip em all out before turning down again.
Nah, that's dirty pool.
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How about we creep higher and let more and more short sellers join in and then have a couple of strong days up to trip em all out before turning down again.
Nah, that's dirty pool.
I can even supply a candidate for you to short Wysiwyg, go on, you know you want to
(click to expand)
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tinhat
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I assume that is a stochastic oscillator you are showing us there? What parameters are you using please?
Obviously the low did hold and I actually now think it could hold for 2012 as well.
My current view is we will range between 5100 and 4000 for a while maybe for the whole of 2012. We may see quick excursions above or below those ranges but atm I don't think they will be very long lasting outside that range.
My immediate view is we will break to the upside of this current range and then spend quite a few months ranging between 5100 & 4400. So I think 2012 will be a sideways year.
Weekly chart attached.
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Logique
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Look at that decreasing volume since Sept 2011. Combined with a triangle pattern, what on earth can it all mean, a breakout I guess. A lot of the weekly oscillators/indicators, and lately even some of the macroeconomic data, would suggest a bullish breakout. Even some of the old faithful maxims, eg 'as January goes, so goes the year'.
But I expect traders to continue be cautious.
But I expect traders to continue be cautious.
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Its a Dynamic Trader Oscillator, or DTosc as created by Robert Miner and is part of his software.
This indicator is a combination of two indicators. It is derived by running an RSI through a Stochastic calculation. Thus, just as the Stochastic measures where closing prices are within the recent trading range, the DT Oscillator measures where the current value of the RSI is relative to its recent high-low range.
Just remember when dealing with momentum indicators that they are an indication of momentum, not price action., ie momentum indicators are an indication of momentum trends not price action trends. The two can be in and remain in sync until something upsets the price trend, then the momentum indicator has to find its feet again.
In the case of the XAO chart above, they are currently in sync.
Scroll down this page and you will find references to the DTosc.
http://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/my-style/momentum-indicators/
and here
http://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/my-style/putting-it-all-together/
Agree 100%. ALthough I feel it needs to churn a bit longer
tinhat
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Thanks for the info.
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It is interesting to note that last week rally on all the major overseas markets did not spark much in ASX. Is ASX tired or are we waiting for something (Europe perhaps) to happen?
And in terms of drop in volume - doesn't that mean that the big money are not involved in the current move, not looking to push prices higher?
And in terms of drop in volume - doesn't that mean that the big money are not involved in the current move, not looking to push prices higher?
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Most of the ASX8 (which drive the ASX200 and the all ords) are at major points of resistance, and it will take some uber positive news to get them over it. Such as a resolution in Greece for instance.
Meanwhile we've had a lot of negative Australian data. Unemployment is going up, retail is getting hammered, iron prices have suffered a serious correction recently, constant problems and concerns about China - their PMI by HSBC's reporting is still negative.
There's just not much light here, no good reason for the market to go up above 4300ish.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Good point. Rising AUD can be attributed to the rise in the commodity index since December. And commodities are tied to the risk appetite I guess.
So coming back around to what Starcraftmazter said before - the Greece could be a catalyst...or poison.
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I think people (I know I am) are sick to death of Euro crisis. It's never ending. Headlines change on an hourly and daily basis. Latest I heard was that Greek bond investors were seemingly happy to accept a 70% loss on their bond investments (ABC Radio News this morning). So why not just accept 100% and be done with it.
The Greeks are going to protest because the Govt. is trying to decrease their minimum wage and, heaven forbid, raise the retirement age from 55!
I'm sick of it, I think the markets sick of it. Good or bad resolution, any resolution will be good news for the market IMO. I'm not saying that if there's a default the market will not fall, but after any initial shock, it will be onwards and upwards.
Mind you, IMO high aussie dollar is not good for our market. OS investors are happy to just stick the money in our banks and earn ~4%. Everyday Aussies are too gun shy of the market. My two cents, the large funds have been sheepishly buying and keeping under the radar.
The Greeks are going to protest because the Govt. is trying to decrease their minimum wage and, heaven forbid, raise the retirement age from 55!
I'm sick of it, I think the markets sick of it. Good or bad resolution, any resolution will be good news for the market IMO. I'm not saying that if there's a default the market will not fall, but after any initial shock, it will be onwards and upwards.
Mind you, IMO high aussie dollar is not good for our market. OS investors are happy to just stick the money in our banks and earn ~4%. Everyday Aussies are too gun shy of the market. My two cents, the large funds have been sheepishly buying and keeping under the radar.
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That's the way they have been trying to groom every one to think! Not too shocking, just drip it out so as many plugs and band aids can be put in place to prevent chaos when it defaults without calling it a default which is what it has already done/doing. Next, Portugal?
Unfortunatly that's the problem.
There isn't a resolution.
Apart from printing till inflation.
That's about where China is now. They won the race to the bottom.
Their leaders just intended not to be around when it came time to collect the prize!
Julia
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4%? You can get 6% + online at call.