Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
- Joined
- 8 August 2006
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- 284
As this chart has other analysis with it
I have attached it here.
I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down TODAY of 120 pts or so
Then 3100 is highly likely.
If the index shows the resilience it has on the past 2 index "shocks" then this analysis maybe invalidated.(Trading above 4350)
View attachment 44125
While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this alternative may also play out.
View attachment 44252
Interesting point SKC but while the weekly bar looks the same the daily bars for those weeks tell totally different stories.
I actually think a closer representative of the bar from last Tue (9/08/11) is actually the bar printed on 21/11/08(green line on the chart) I know the intra day futures trading was pretty much the same. While we saw new lows after that bar, it signaled the end of the real momentum in that downward move, just look at the different flow after that bar.
So while I think we could drift back down to test that 3700-4000 area again (in fact I'd be a little surprised if we didn't test at least 4000 again), unless we see some sort of major event from overseas markets I think we might have seen the lows for this year. How price reacts on the next leg down will be telling, I will definitely be expecting a more orderly retreat - if not it is a worrying sign imo. With the strength we saw in those 2 down days last week I would be very surprised to see our market push below 3700 this year without some sort of major trigger from overseas.
But in this current environment anything is possible.
Maybe but there are a few things to consider.
- We are not coming off a multi-year bull run
- The excessive leverage we saw at the top of the bullmarket is now drastically reduced
While I think we will see a bear market of some sort and test the lows at 3200-3400 in the next few years, I think we have seen the low for at least the next few months purely judging by the strength seen last week but of course that is no guarantee, especially in the current market. The major risk I see atm is a black swan event which of course renders all analysis pretty much useless.
Disclaimer:I'm purely a chartist and have little understanding or interest in economics, I trade off what the charts tell me.
I'm not arguing that it won't or can't happen, I'm just saying the action and strength in those bars indicates some sort of bottom for the moment.
As this chart has other analysis with it
I have attached it here.
I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down TODAY of 120 pts or so
Then 3100 is highly likely.
If the index shows the resilience it has on the past 2 index "shocks" then this analysis maybe invalidated.(Trading above 4350)
View attachment 44125
Tech, What happened on 19 Aug? Looks like it tanked on my charts.While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this alternative may also play out.
View attachment 44252
Hi paul, I think most traders attention will be on whether 4145 holds in the short term.
12.30 - busted.
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