This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.
Just noticed the 250 DEMA has crossed down over the 250 EMA three times over the last 15 + years. On each occasion the Index dropped further and not more dramatically than in 2008. The third and most recent cross down was on the 18th of this month. Keeps me cautious though it might be different this time.
 

Attachments

  • untitled.jpg
    108.3 KB · Views: 15
  • untitled.jpg
    98.2 KB · Views: 10
The DJIA and the Nasdaq made significant grounds on the press that the "the economy isn't doing too bad..." If their markets can get enthusiastic on such a weak comment you wonder how much harder they will fall when the next dose of reality goes to press.

The djia seems to be climbing back toward 12000. Our market appears to be a lot more cautious and could settle into a lower range of 4,000 to 4,500 while we wait for more certainty in global markets.

Our two speed economy continues with the gap between the two becomming more apparent. Trade opportunities abound in the volatility.
 

Attachments

  • xao 2011-08-29.png
    5.9 KB · Views: 6


While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this alternative may also play out.

 
While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this alternative may also play out.

View attachment 44252

Pretty strong resistance at 4500 that will take some getting through... but the current trend sure indicates that we will test it soon enough.
 
Personally I think we are in line for a great deal of ranging between 3900 and 4500.

It is likely to take sometime before Europe and the US Debt situation works its way to critical mass.

In the meantime the big black cloud will remain in place stifling any serious prolong bull run.

So Im looking at range trading opportunities.
 
If it looks like that, it's one hell of a turn around.

I'd anticipate at least one more V on the way up - given the impulsiveness of the preceding drop.

Then the cerebral blanket provided by retailers assist by breaking out Christmas carols to help with the fogging of minds to extend the second wave of amnesia about Europe.
The US is growing and feeling alright.
Then when they all start to chime we're a bit over bought for the third time.
Maybe a good time to short.
 


I'm not arguing that it won't or can't happen, I'm just saying the action and strength in those bars indicates some sort of bottom for the moment.

Analysis I posted in the tanking thread, still stands.

If anything the fact we didn't go below 4100 on the last leg down strengthens it.

I also think we will see a range bound market for the next few months and I'm still favoring prices to test 3200-3400 sometime next year but 3700 could yet provide enough support to stop that. I will have to review my outlook if we see prices above 4700 though.
 
It may also be prudent to note the volumes on the S&P since July 27.
I'm not worried about that but I'm not ignoring it either.
 
Very good day I thought. Strong into close.

Yesterday saw an upwards breakout from a nicely formed inverted H&S, with (strangely) a target of 5030.

Amazing turnaround. How long will it last? 4600? Hope so.
 

While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this alternative may also play out.

View attachment 44252
Tech, What happened on 19 Aug? Looks like it tanked on my charts.

Can you summarise the forecast here, or is it something more complicated and we have to wait for highs and lows to be broken?

It seems like you're saying if it breaks up, then it breaks up to 4600 ish and if it doesn't in goes down to 3100 ish.
 
What ifs Kennas
Like the trains on the tracks to Melbourne
If however it switches to Sydney then there is a good chance it will go there.

The current high hasn't been taken out yet so everything is still in a down trend longer term and an up trend in a shorter term.

Very difficult to trade anything longer term short or long.
My trading is intraday index futs
No long term anything right now.
Plenty of what ifs.
 
Trending downwards and sideways. IMO needs to break out above 4500 (and stay there) to reverse the downward trend. With reporting season not being as brutal as it could have been the upward break out is possible.



However, with the global sovereign debt issues unresolved and the volitility of the u.s.a I still see the xao trading sideways between 4000 and 4500 with occaisional spikes under 4000 and hopefully some above 4500.
 
DJIA 24 hour contract up about 100 atm.

Who's for a small day on Wall St tonight? All the Major world Indexes are trading into congestion (DAX pooped itself however and is a notable exception) ... will we take out 4300 before 4000?

If 4300 maybe this time next week .... 4000 could be smashed (say) Friday
 

Attachments

  • 20110906 - ASX200 - D.jpg
    238.1 KB · Views: 30
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...