nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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There doesn't seem to be enough volumes to provide any bounce off the support levels.
XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Not ususally one to look at things like Fibonacci - this just seems too obvious to me at this stage. Expecting a move back to 09 lows...
From the 07 high to the 09 low.
Retracement back to the 50% level twice - failed
Support and Resistance occurred a number of times at 38.2%
Some resistance in early 09 @ 23.6%, false break last month on that VERY strange day (9th?) before moving back to around 4000.. Again yesterday we moved back to 4000 on no new data and looking like bouncing off again today..
Just an idea but I think Bernanke's upcoming speech may be the trigger for the next move down..
skc
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Nothing is surprising these days. I think Bernanake's action will spur the market one last time...albeit with a much shorter half life compared to QE1 and QE2. Perhaps a retest of 4500 before the next leg down...
Kryzz
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Looking at the weekly, reckon we might get to 3400 before 2012 (Unless a 'volume-less' xmas rally holds it off briefly, as seen in the last couple years)
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Yesterday the drop of 108 points pushed the xao down to close below the support level of 4056. Last nights action in Europe was mirrored in the U.S. (the only glimmer of hope was that the U.S recovered approximately 150 points in the last hour).
The chart shows the XAO locked in a downward channel. The market is ecpected to open another 75 points down today which will push us down to the high 3900's. The macd for the xao shows that a downward gap is opening. Whether this is presenting buy opportunities to trade the gap or signalling a move to a lower level (sit back and watch) is hard to determine.
The chart shows the XAO locked in a downward channel. The market is ecpected to open another 75 points down today which will push us down to the high 3900's. The macd for the xao shows that a downward gap is opening. Whether this is presenting buy opportunities to trade the gap or signalling a move to a lower level (sit back and watch) is hard to determine.
Yup. I'm more or less predicting a replay of the 1987 crash, where the market bottomed at 1200 in early 1988, bounced and then returned to 1200 3 years later in 1991. It wasn't until early 1993 that a bull market was re-established, over 5 years later!
By this reckoning, the bottom at 3200 will be revisited this year or early next, and any sign of a real bull market is 2013 at the earliest. As an investor (not trader) I expect to be in mostly cash for a while yet (but TLS still pays good dividends!).
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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And down we go no surprises here (at least there shouldn't be) US markets fall 40% on average on any recession, Europe is a certain recession add another what ever % and lets throw in sovereign debt crises all over the shop.
Asia gets the shakes.......
The debt thing will work out that western governments will have to tighten (ie pay down debt stop spending) at exactly the wrong time. This removes up to 1% growth shrinks GDP increases debt to GDP ratios sheezzzz it looks ugly.
Back to XAO rising volume shows selling and no buyers stepping up yet we have started to enter a recent buy zone.
May see some support around 3800 but don't count on it.
Reason is the miners are getting hit today but the banks are not but they will join the sell queue soon enough once the contagions of Europe start to get under way.
Market is continuing to price risk.............the AUD falling is screaming that message.
Asia gets the shakes.......
The debt thing will work out that western governments will have to tighten (ie pay down debt stop spending) at exactly the wrong time. This removes up to 1% growth shrinks GDP increases debt to GDP ratios sheezzzz it looks ugly.
Back to XAO rising volume shows selling and no buyers stepping up yet we have started to enter a recent buy zone.
May see some support around 3800 but don't count on it.
Reason is the miners are getting hit today but the banks are not but they will join the sell queue soon enough once the contagions of Europe start to get under way.
Market is continuing to price risk.............the AUD falling is screaming that message.
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3600 target but can't be bothered posting chart atm.
NCM in death spiral having broken through a very long term trend line form 1998.
Nothing good, basically. Banks won't hold these gains.
NCM in death spiral having broken through a very long term trend line form 1998.
Nothing good, basically. Banks won't hold these gains.
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Large volume on closing 30 minutes of SPI this afternoon. Short term rally on the way?
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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I noticed disproportionately large volumes went through in the closing auction on Woolworths and Westpac yesterday. I thought it might be shorters closing out their positions but Woolworths share price was pushed down 10c in the close and Westpac was pushed up 10c in the close.
Possibly a case of a lot of T/A's "smart" people buying up bargains, expecting a rally this week. Buying the shares from other "smart" people selling into the price rise.
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Smart buyers and smart sellers, someone will end up with egg on their face!
Interesting times. One minute markets don't give a second thought to most of Europe, let alone USA being broke; then they have a panic attack. This latest debt solution for Greece looks like it will be a shot in the arm (short term at least) for the markets.
Longer term, as Zero Hedge says, Europe is putting everything they've got into saving Greece. Will be ugly if things don't go right from here.
I'm trying to get my head around who's trying to play who. Are we set for a rally because the rest of the world is scared of Europe and USA debt?
Are we setting up for a fall with investors being lulled into a false sense of security and then the big knockout punch?
The Trend's your friend... unless of course it's going sideways in a 4% range!
Interesting times. One minute markets don't give a second thought to most of Europe, let alone USA being broke; then they have a panic attack. This latest debt solution for Greece looks like it will be a shot in the arm (short term at least) for the markets.
Longer term, as Zero Hedge says, Europe is putting everything they've got into saving Greece. Will be ugly if things don't go right from here.
I'm trying to get my head around who's trying to play who. Are we set for a rally because the rest of the world is scared of Europe and USA debt?
Are we setting up for a fall with investors being lulled into a false sense of security and then the big knockout punch?
The Trend's your friend... unless of course it's going sideways in a 4% range!
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Very hard trying to trade against the trend. Here's a long term chart. The meeting of the two yellow lines will be around 3600 and occur about mid 2012. Long way off, but it will represent a very good technical buying opportunity.
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Isn't the world meant to be ending in 2012?
Seriously though... sideways/down until then... yuck!
Isn't the world meant to be ending in 2012?
Typically everybody thinks it's the end of the world at the bottom of a stock market crash. So considering 'the end of the world' is supposed to be December 2012, I'm guessing that will be the bottom of the stock market crash.
Not exactly technical analysis, but we'll see.
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Isn't the world meant to be ending in 2012?
Seriously though... sideways/down until then... yuck!
I had "EOTW" marked on my charts around December, and I couldn't for the life of me remember what it meant. Thanks for the reminder.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Logique
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Just so important for us that the US and UK indexes break out of their trading range. As the technically oversold positions unwind, repeated failed attempts to break out aren't a good signal.
As others have said, a critical juncture here, these indexes must go on with it now, or be prone to roll over and test the lower part of the range again. Example of the 6 month Dow under.
As others have said, a critical juncture here, these indexes must go on with it now, or be prone to roll over and test the lower part of the range again. Example of the 6 month Dow under.
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Sean K
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I thought we were just entering the 5th World on 21 Dec, not EOTW....I had "EOTW" marked on my charts around December, and I couldn't for the life of me remember what it meant. Thanks for the reminder.
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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The volatility in Europe and the U.S continues to flow through to the djia. At the moment the xao may be consolidating at the top of a downward/sideways channel. If the Europeans get their act together it is possible we may break out and test 4500, otherwise it is back to the lower levels arround 3900.
I find it amazing that the djia is testing highs arround 12,000 and we are languishing arround 4000. Either we are way under valued with our strong economy and low sovereign debt; or the U.S.A is way overvalued with their stuffed up economy and sovereign debt escalating out of control. Another bubble ready to burst and bring every thing down with it?
I find it amazing that the djia is testing highs arround 12,000 and we are languishing arround 4000. Either we are way under valued with our strong economy and low sovereign debt; or the U.S.A is way overvalued with their stuffed up economy and sovereign debt escalating out of control. Another bubble ready to burst and bring every thing down with it?