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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Gringotts Bank said:
update. A sharp bounce off the orange line looking imminent - tomorrow or day after? Followed by a snail's pace push back up to 4750?
Click to expand...

Looks more like Swanston St with crossing tram lines. The downward channel suggests support at 4550, while the upward minor channel suggest support at 4600 or there-abouts. If it breaks through the upward minor channel then we can expect it to test the lower support level. If it breaks through that...........????

If it wasn't for tls going against the trend today, with massive turnover, the fall on the xao would have been much worse than it was.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


cash200 tested bottom channel on 2 hour , 5day50 now at 4634 . love structure like this , its just so tradable , bit easier than sept and oct . trend well and trully intact . might get a counter from here but for now ill keep with the primary trend on this 2 hour , lower swings in both highs and lows continuing . no bend yet . still hope for support on daily but an up night is required overseas this evening . we lose support on daily and i dont see much to catch it above 4400 . its all dynamic and evaluation is required when reference levels fail
 

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Re: XAO Analysis


daily trully is messy but i thought id add it anyway , pretty ordinary guide really , should have done some range analysis , i'll tackle that another time once 4600 is dealt with one way or the other
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
All going to plan from what I can see.
Click to expand...

Forget the mumbo jumbo/jibba jabba.

Should have been short since those Crows flew in.
This was seen ages ago charts never turned bullish.
Pulled back weakly as expected---it was/is all there.
It isn't that hard people-------
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Forget the mumbo jumbo/jibba jabba.

Should have been short since those Crows flew in.
This was seen ages ago charts never turned bullish.
Pulled back weakly as expected---it was/is all there.
It isn't that hard people-------
Click to expand...

In what time frame are you talking about the charts never turning bullish? Are you referring to the past few days, or on a larger timeframe going back to late august/early september?

Sorry for the repeated questioning, but you've piqued my interest a bit here. You and I have basically looked at charts from the same country's markets, come to the opposite conclusions, yet you've somehow managed to translate that over to the local market, and anticipate that it would be a lot weaker than the US, despite saying that "while we may not have immediate signs other bourses like the US do"(here).

I'd be interested to hear a little more about the process involved here, as it doesn't quite seem to make sense to me
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This is just for interest sake . possible yet not probable . this is way too far out for me to trade or almost anyone for that matter
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Happy to do so BUT
The XJO and XAO both showed weakness technically.
While the US lined up 3 bourse weakness the local market certainly showed in their own charts. (I dont have the US charts at the office).
Weakness continues as it has for some time.

The secret with all discretionary analysis is this:-

The Analysis IS correct until proven incorrect.
From the 3 black Crows this chart just kept throwing
up technical confirmations of weakness.

I dont know but perhaps everyone was looking at WHY 3 Black crows couldnt possibly indicate a prolonged downturn and not at the story building in the chart.The Black crows were strong evidence of a clear rejection at the top confirmation continued/s to build.

Second Chart is weekly.
You can clearly see the support areaqs below the current action and also the important RED Resistance which "Could" become support.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Three Black Crows would be a typical event in an over heated market, i don't see a need to panic and even consider a prolonged down turn (although depends what you define as prolonged)

the dow has run up far to quickly over the 13weeks and our market is similar although we have seen far less of a rise and far more of a drop.

But i guess if we only look at certain signals we can see anything.

the simple truth is the market is over heated and its cooling cant expect a 40% annual growth to be maintained in the market can you.

*Interesting if you look at all the THREE BLACK CROW events over the last 3 years it seems like they are followed up with Bullish rallies more then prolonged down turns
 
Re: XAO Analysis

But I guess if we only look at certain signals we can see anything
Click to expand...

This implies that looking at the charts presented we could see something contrary to that shown.
Can you point that out to me as I cant see any alternative to the analysis shown---to support a contrary arguement.

As for timeframe its simply valid until proven invalid.
When it is-----so to will my bearish trading on the index.
And others.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yes the crows are doing their work today Tech/a,
aided by North Korea. The 4615 level very important, and looks shakey. If below that, a test of 4400 is not out of the question.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm not implying that isn't an early sign for a prolonged down period.
I'm just stating what i see.

Maybe my analysis is flawed however Three Black crows does not seem to actually imply a negative prolonged down period after. If anything the reverse can normal be seen.

It is possible my use of a selective data set has limited my result though so i will investigate more.

I however would agree if we continue and broke though the 250day moving avg i would be concerned. however would still not expect Prolonged down
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Pretty bullish day from open today so far. Asia looking quite strong atm, as well as Gold, oil & AUD rallying strongly this AM.

Asia lead the DOW last night and it could be looking to lead it again today
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I have no idea how long the chart will remain bearish.
But from the clear rejection of the high its stayed bearish.
Nothing has shown up in charts that I'm looking at to suggest anything is pointing to a change in current analysis.
So If short remain short if thinking about going long remain thinking about going long.If undecided I understand your pain-----believe in what your seeing dont try to pick bottoms or when it will occur soon enough and you'll see it.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just messing around with some weekly indicators, using 11 EMA. Chart attached, make your own judgements.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

enigmatic said:
*Interesting if you look at all the THREE BLACK CROW events over the last 3 years it seems like they are followed up with Bullish rallies more then prolonged down turns
Click to expand...

Haven't you been reading this thread for the last week or two!?


Are you suggesting that chart shows Three Black Crows!!!?

Investigate back a couple of pages in this thread.


tech/a said:
I have no idea how long the chart will remain bearish.
Click to expand...

I''ll be worrying my hair out until week end to see if the pattern repeats in the weekly chart... ie whether the third Black Crow comes into land under the Dark Cloud.


Gee, that's my favourite pass time tech. It sure gets the conversation going at times.

nomore4s said:
Pretty bullish day from open today so far. Asia looking quite strong atm, as well as Gold, oil & AUD rallying strongly this AM.

Asia lead the DOW last night and it could be looking to lead it again today
Click to expand...

Yeah, my target for this immediate correction has been reached. I'd expect it to bounce around 4,650 for awhile and retrace back up near 4,767. If it breaks back above 4,767 I'll stay with my current EW count and look for a new high over the next few weeks.

If it can't break up reasonably quickly, I'll be leaning to my 40% bigger Bear scenerio... unless I get a new new sign!

PS:
Logique said:
Just messing around with some weekly indicators, using 11 EMA. Chart attached, make your own judgements.
Click to expand...

Lol... yeah, that's been on my radar for awhile.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis


ok then, I was under the impression from your earlier post that you were seeing weakness on one bourse and translating that to another. If there were things seen on our market, then it renders my earlier comments null and void.

Whiskers said:
Gee, that's my favourite pass time tech. It sure gets the conversation going at times.
Click to expand...

For once I actually agree with you Whiskers. Bottom picking dips in an uptrend is pretty well one of my standard trading methods! R:R can't be beat IMHO.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers

That's an interesting count.
This is a Weekly count which I favour
See the tiny wave 5 projection right at the bottom of the page?
Under 3000.I cant imagine it going there either.
But I couldn't imagine the GFC.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Whiskers

That's an interesting count.
This is a Weekly count which I favour
See the tiny wave 5 projection right at the bottom of the page?
Under 3000.I cant imagine it going there either.
But I couldn't imagine the GFC.
Click to expand...

My preferred count assumes the bottom is a 'C', and a Bull market turning and the last high a smaller degree 'iii' of '3'... but plan B suggests 'iii' may have actually been back before the congestion, and the little top where my corrent 'iii' is may be 'v'.

So in summary, my plan A has the correction about bottomed... BUT plan A(i) has the 'v' and a little 'a' in, and a bit of a bounce and some more correction to come. I have swapped these around a couple of times since the only difference is one level of degree... a slightly bigger correction, but still uptrend.

But, my plan B pretty much goes along with your count. Best not to talk too alarmist for the moment until we see a sign of whether the movers and shakers do what they ought to do or do more of what they want to do.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Wow

Based on wave 3 being approx 1.618 of wave 1 that makes Wave 3 at around 8305 or around a 3250 pt Bull Run.
Must check that GFC thing again!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

For what it's worth:

I will be going long if the US holds into the close. Our bounce of resistance on higher volume would suggest that should this be a correction in part of a larger up move, now is a good time to enter.

I would've preferred had this been an A-B-C decline and as such will only be going half my position size.
 
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