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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well looks like this correction from yesterdays rally is going to go a lot harder than I initially thought!

I'm still holding my position, (even the additional position ) and have a my stop loss for all positions just a tick below yesterdays low.

IMO, this is the hardest part. Seeing a potential 100+ point profit in over night trading turn into a small loss!

I've got my plan, and I'm going to stick to it. In hindsight now, only error I have made was adding that additional position.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


If you are going to fight the predominant trend, which is currently still down, maybe have a look at scaling out of trades.

Rallies against such a momentum driven decline are often very sharp, but often don't last long.

Personally in this situation, I'd have sold half and brought my stop into BE to protect against this very possibility. You can always add back to the position later if we start printing higher lows
 
Re: XAO Analysis


If your not an experienced trader (im not one of them) i think you shouldnt trade against the trend untill you become more comfortable, trading corrections seem to be less predictable and more difficult. If you make a mistake in your timing you could be in big trouble fast. That being said its good you are sticking to your plan, today did trade higher then yesterday i still expect the market to get up to the 38.2% retracement. if you get stopped out atleast you have learned not to get greedy and add to your position too soon.

When adding to your position you should re evaluate how much you stand to lose if it goes against you, you could be adding to a position significantly further away from your stop loss. I have made the same mistakes you should always plan for the worst and keep an objective view point. In my experience i would get excited and try to add to a winning position without logical reason, especially after a few losing trades beforehand, now i try to bury any subjective views and detach myself from the dollar amount i 'could' make.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Went short 4260 After top tested and holding O/N.

Just a dabble one contract.

Prof makes some good points.
Whats your plan if your willing to divulge?

Mine is simple and I could be wrong---predominant trend is down.

CLICK TO EXPAND
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech do you only use VSA intraday or on longer time frames?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Tech,

An interesting take and graphic representation, however why have you left out the overnight market?? The picture looks a little different with it in.

I'm currently long from the end of last week on a few stocks that are in a similar pattern. For my money the recent fast rises, on the hourly, compared to the slower falls mean that it is still likely to go higher in the short term.

brty
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

And that is the nature of failed discretionary trading. Chopping and changing, riding on skills & experience still lacking, emotional shunts. I don't think I'm alone in knowing that money goes hand in hand with emotion. Exhilaration to despair and all the shades in between.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yes well done Razz.
My longterm analysis has trumped my short term.


On to the next trade.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Yes well done Razz.
My longterm analysis has trumped my short term.


On to the next trade.
Click to expand...

Thanks Tech, though I wouldn't say it was skill that got me over the line; I am only very new to this game!

I am proud in my ability to not get scared and sell when things started looking tough.

I realise the recent rallies world wide have been on light volume which I believe is in agreance with this being a bear rally rather than a new bull.

I'll keep my eyes on the screen today and start moving my stop losses up.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Went short 4260 After top tested and holding O/N.

Just a dabble one contract.

Prof makes some good points.
Whats your plan if your willing to divulge?

Mine is simple and I could be wrong---predominant trend is down.

CLICK TO EXPAND
Click to expand...

Was that a question directed at me tech? I can't quite tell with the way you laid out your post
 
Re: XAO Analysis

GumbyLearner said:
Why? I have been a member of this site for over 4 years and have found your contributions completely and utterly useless? Maybe I need more capital.
Click to expand...

(1) Why?
Because when trading longer term I havent required it.I'll certainly have a look at continuous contract data and see if it is helpful.

(2) Not everyone "get's it".
Rather than capital perhaps you need more education.

I'll keep my eyes on the screen today and start moving my stop losses up
Click to expand...

Its not a happy rally resisting at 4338

Was that a question directed at me tech? I can't quite tell with the way you laid out your post
Click to expand...

No Razz.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Its not a happy rally resisting at 4338
Click to expand...

Hardly surprising it's hitting resistance considering the market is up about 70/80 points, you could also say 4310 seems to be providing support.

I'd be more interested in seeing how the day closes both here and in Asia before I make any sort of commitment either way.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

iownasx said:
tech, still think it will crash to sub-4000?
Click to expand...

Yes.
Not a lot has altered fundamentally infact its getting worse.
This retracement is as expected albeit late!!
Will be interesting to see the depth of it.
50% retracement is normal.
32.8% is scary (Very weak)
61.8% is unlikely but if reached or exceeded indicates a period of boring consolidation and uncertainty---directionless.

Very quick low volume Updays like we saw in the US last night dont last long and are usually balanced next open or within 2 days.
So I'm looking for a reversal to short sooner than later.

By which time Razz will be retired.
 

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