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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

I see the XJO between 3500-3600 by the end of the year. The market is not only testing Fibonacci levels but has hit 50 day moving average, furthermore 'Megaphone Top' pattern suggests retracement.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

The 50 day moving average knows all??? I prefer the 68 day average myself

A lot of people calling for renewed strength lower, a little bit of caution and keeping in mind a contrarian view can't hurt. Trading is never that easy.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My update / take on current move.

A=C so that is copy book.

Expected completion of wave 5 at around 4100.

Highly likely (If it plays out that the Wave will extend to 3700 ish as it plays out a 5 wave pattern completing the 1st 5 waves down-3 waves (ABC) back up to correct then again down 5 to complete wave A of a larger pattern).

I have a short play on from 4598 and will be adding to it if the moves play out---stop 4640.

Click to expand
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I have a short play on from 4598 and will be adding to it if the moves play out---stop 4640.
Click to expand...

Going to plan
160pts currently
Stop 4525
Havent added yet.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Some volume in Europe tech.
Click to expand...

Yes Broadway.
I feel this maybe an interim last gasp from holders who are frustrated with the falling market.
I note the US rallied hard after the Europe close but failed to finish in the black.
I'm expecting some positive correction very soon before the big falls.

CLICK TO EXPAND

ON Elliott.
While I dont think Elliott is pin point accurate I like to and do use it as a Direction finder/follower. Gives me something to expect and if it doesnt happen gives me an lternative expectation which I can anticipate.
Frankly I like the way it can alter counts. It paints the anticipated picture as it pans out and then gives another----often the anticipated picture turns out to be the ACTUAL picture like it has so far.---now of course having said that it will stuff up!
There are other forms of analysis (Range and volume) I find very helpful in managing a trade. Very Simple analysis.
Stop still 4525
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Tech,

I like your analysis! Are you short using the Sep SPI contract? If so, is your stop based on the SPI Sep price or is it based on the XJO?

I personally dove head first in my first SPI trade on Fri being short at 4436. Looking at the intraday chart I was amazed at how well I did to pick the top. I put this down to pure luck more than anything as previous paper trading attempts have been woeful!

Showing a small profit ATM, the good ole fear and greed are nagging at me.

I'm just hoping I can put emotions aside and manage this trade as 'correctly' as possible.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We are at a bit of a crossroads here . Nice downsloping channel which tech has ridden nicely . Coming up and testing TLS on a higher time frame . potential pivot here . Structure is solid with nice defined channels on both time frames
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Have covered my short position.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well done on your SPI futures contract short sell Tech/A. Did you do so as a hedging strategy or simply seized the opportunity when it presented itself.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

W

Ive watched many longer term moves some Ive seen and commented on which have moved 2000pts +
Trading much shorter term.
They dont come up all that often but when they do the reward to risk is well worth the trade.
I dont think this is over by a long stretch yet but analysis tells me the balance has tipped to the long side albeit to be confirmed.

So this time I decided not to watch.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jersey10 said:
Tech/A when do you anticipate shorting for the next move down? or do you not plan to short again?
Click to expand...

Ill be following the Trade as it un folds.
The chart above gives you an indication of how I'll be trading it---if of course the analysis plays out.

Ill post anything of interest.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

satanoperca said:
Hi Tech/a,

From a technical perspective what has changed your mind that further falls arn't going to come to pass.

Cheers
Click to expand...

I have no doubt further falls will certainly be happening.
I am however expecting a pause in the downward thrust for a little while.
I may not have the timing perfect but the risk to the upside (From my analysis above) is to me greater than the possible gain letting the trade run.

As mentioned I am looking for re entry.
 
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