XAO Technical Analysis

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

Gradual increase in volume over the last 3 days while the Index slides lower. Does this pattern always culminate with a final drive down in points accompanied by a peak in volume.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

No not always ther can be exhaustive volume if there is an obvious over reaction.But if the market believes the correction is about right then until an in balance occurs price will lose its volitility.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

No not always ther can be exhaustive volume if there is an obvious over reaction.But if the market believes the correction is about right then until an in balance occurs price will lose its volitility.

Thanx Tech. Is the All Ords Index volume data available live with broker accounts?

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

Gradual increase in volume over the last 3 days while the Index slides lower. Does this pattern always culminate with a final drive down in points accompanied by a peak in volume.

One for tech/a to describe

(click to expand)

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

In this case Boggo nothing flash to report just increased volume on selling.
Basic dumping.
So far todays dumping is just compounding the situation.
4100 ish looks promising---if your short.

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

On individual stocks I am getting lots of buy signals with my system/methodology. High volumes on reaching support. Bought into a few things today, some a little early in the day, a couple on the close and lows for the day.

As a general rule when I get lots of buys at the same time, it has proven to be good entry points. When I get isolated signals here and there, the tendency is for poorer performance.

Close to 50% in today after being in cash yesterday Will probably add tomorrow if market action acceptable.

The XAO is reaching good support at 4290-4320, there may be a spike down tomorrow and then a reversal, time will tell.

brty

 

[saiter]

Re: XAO Analysis

On individual stocks I am getting lots of buy signals with my system/methodology. High volumes on reaching support. Bought into a few things today, some a little early in the day, a couple on the close and lows for the day.

As a general rule when I get lots of buys at the same time, it has proven to be good entry points. When I get isolated signals here and there, the tendency is for poorer performance.

Close to 50% in today after being in cash yesterday Will probably add tomorrow if market action acceptable.

The XAO is reaching good support at 4290-4320, there may be a spike down tomorrow and then a reversal, time will tell.

brty

I hope for your sake that you are correct... but other than your system's signals, what makes you think the market should reverse tomorrow?

The XAO isn't the only market that is declining, the DJIA, HSI, DAX, FTSE and most importantly, the SSE (Shanghai), are all heading downwards.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO is reaching good support at 4290-4320, there may be a spike down tomorrow and then a reversal, time will tell.
brty

In support of this, my software acknowledges past resistance & support levels. The thick green line AT 4291.9 was considered most significant support by the software and not me. What happens next?

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

I hope for your sake.....

You don't need to hope for me, I don't. I follow my signals, end of story. If the signals don't work, I will exit the positions.

I just thought I would add my 2c to all the negative tone around the traps. Whether any bounce has legs or not, I have no idea, but the market action over the next few days/week will give the clues. We could bounce hard, we could go sideways, but I have to be positioned to take advantage of a move if there is one.

what makes you think the market should reverse tomorrow?

The answer to this question... How many times does the XAO go straight through a support point (from a previous up-trend), after falling nearly 6 weeks solidly for over 12% plus for 5+ days in a row without pausing/reacting??

My answer is not very often.. June of '02 being one time it did not work, but then you only had to wait for one more day and a 1.2% fall.

brty

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

FWIW

Im in agreeance with brty on a bounce due.

NOT calling this the bottom of this overall move BUT am saying that IMO there is a nice quick long trade due right about .......here..... and am positioned accordingly on a cupl of index weighting stocks plus a cupla midcaps as of today ......smaller positions , wider stops.


i could always be wrong and its armageddon ...do not pass go , But being the internet guru i am , i think not.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Re: XAO Analysis

On individual stocks I am getting lots of buy signals with my system/methodology. High volumes on reaching support. Bought into a few things today, some a little early in the day, a couple on the close and lows for the day.

As a general rule when I get lots of buys at the same time, it has proven to be good entry points. When I get isolated signals here and there, the tendency is for poorer performance.

brty

I agree BRTY but from experience I also use the news as an added confirmation.
News has to confirm chart action ... so far no remedy has been released with regard to the greek crisis. That's where I draw the line we need news to confirm the charts.
BHP RIO QBE MQG these are all buy NOW signals BUT I will wait this one out. VERY hard to do sometimes but it will turn around one day and thats the day to get in not one day sooner

Watch the breaking of trendline though thats the safest thing

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree BRTY but from experience I also use the news as an added confirmation.
News has to confirm chart action ... so far no remedy has been released with regard to the greek crisis. That's where I draw the line we need news to confirm the charts.
BHP RIO QBE MQG these are all buy NOW signals BUT I will wait this one out. VERY hard to do sometimes but it will turn around one day and thats the day to get in not one day sooner

Watch the breaking of trendline though thats the safest thing

I think the easy trade there was to short BHP? Obviously too many people are holding for that support level we touched today. Bad night on the dow and there will be blood on the streets tomorrow.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

BHP RIO QBE MQG these are all buy NOW signals BUT I will wait this one out. VERY hard to do sometimes but it will turn around one day and thats the day to get in not one day sooner

With your conditions!!!

=============================

Any Fib. cats in the street would have noticed a 38.2% retrace at the fat figure of 4300. A 50% retrace is also on a previous resistance level from June last year. "I opened the window to listen to the news; But all I heard was the Establishment's Blues."

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the easy trade there was to short BHP? Obviously too many people are holding for that support level we touched today. Bad night on the dow and there will be blood on the streets tomorrow.

Yes with dow futures pointing downwards again,And with wall street reform fails key vote heading morning news.If 4291 fails to hold up on the xao...there will be alot of blood

 

[drsmith]

Re: XAO Analysis

At the end of the week global markets crashed in October 2008, the Dow initially tanked about 1000 points on Friday night (our time) before recovering somewhat from that point by the end of that trading session.

Like then, a trading session is a long time at the moment.

 

[saiter]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think it's safe to say that for today at least, many buyers were waiting for China's lead. IMO, the rest of the day did not mimic the SSE, probably because the XJO found its own legs.
The attached is a comparison of the price action of the SSE (green) v. XJO (blue). The graphs were downloaded from yahoo finance. I distorted the width of the SSE graph so that I could properly overlay it ontop of the XJO graph.
Some notes: the ASX opens 2 hours before the SSE. The latter also happens to begin trading at 9:30 AM rather than 10 AM, thus trade on the ASX begins 1.5 hours earlier than the SSE (i.e. 11:30 AM EST). Furthermore, the SSE stops trading between 1130-1300 Shanghai time, hence the 'flat line' during that period.

So assuming that we're waiting on China to make our own move, where does that leave us? Well according to bloomberg.com, Europe makes up 20% of all of China's exports, and if Europe keeps going south, then I think that the SSE will follow and so will the ASX.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Only a short term fat lady singing

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Only a short term fat lady singing

and thats allright by me.......

added to 2 midcaps

could always be wrong and take a smack in the chops instead

 

[dlineinvestor]

Re: XAO Analysis

FWIW

Im in agreeance with brty on a bounce due.

NOT calling this the bottom of this overall move BUT am saying that IMO there is a nice quick long trade due right about .......here.

nunthewiser and brty
Perhaps you guys read charts like I do. There u go the Dow makes a gain and into the weekend !! ??
What does that tell you about what we feel rather than what we see.
We've over corrected and the charts were showing it, BHP, RIO, MQG, Blue chip in general along with the XJO. 176 point bounce from the low. Hard to believe it was possible. It would have taken real balls to go long and hold from that low, yes i though about it but didn't hold only hung on for a few points.
Once again charts don't lie. Just like the ascending wedge short signal formed with the neg divergence on the way up. So there was a buy signal on the low as well. ONE THING I WANT TO MAKE CLEAR. I'm not claiming to have picked the bottom only the fact that the opp happened again to what I think most of us thought would happen. I for one would love to see the asx stocks surge higher on Mon. The Greek/Euro resolution has still not been announced but when it does the XJO will I think be flirting with 4500 resistance once again.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Or perhaps further drops would simply reflect the reality of the situation, i.e. that nothing much has changed other than a shifting around of paper, contaminating the reasonable balance sheets of e.g. Germany with the junk of Greece.

For the last two and a half years, there has simply been one artificial move after another. The fundamental problems of excessive debt are still there.

I think that's a pretty good wide angle shot of the big picture... with a bit of emphasis on "one artificial move after another". Not too cynical, but I think a touch of reality that while international, especially US market reform is proving hard and slow, and the 'big' players can still nudge the momentum a bit extra on a bit of fear.

Similarly with reducing national debt.

I recall MRC & Co, who apparently follows the FA data detail more than me, saying there has been a bit of a flight to cash of late... to reshuffle portfolios.

Once again charts don't lie. Just like the ascending wedge short signal formed with the neg divergence on the way up. So there was a buy signal on the low as well.

I like your analysis.

ONE THING I WANT TO MAKE CLEAR. I'm not claiming to have picked the bottom...

Ok then, I will now.

I really like my most favoured count (white) now, which suggests this would be 5 of the C leg of an expanded Flat from the Jan high.

The Greek/Euro resolution has still not been announced but when it does the XJO will I think be flirting with 4500 resistance once again.

Yes, that will be the sign for me too. I suspect the Germans in particular may have been in there doing a bit of the 'US PPT thing' to maxamise their returns and put some 'economic' pressure on the US, while Angela Merkel is putting pressure on the US for market reforms. I'd think Obamma has a bit more committment to make some substantial changes than Bush did, hence my leaning more Bullish for the longer term.

Boggo, tech/a, is your count suggesting this is 5 of an abc from the April high or are you agreeing with me?