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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well, since all the expert EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately, I'll hang out my latest postulation for some citique.
I have two most likely counts... slightly favor the white since that was my earlier analysis, but as time goes by I'm leaning more to the yellow.
Either way I expect a bottoming out soon.
PS: Logique, I think you're quite right here about Henry.
Well, since all the expert EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately, I'll hang out my latest postulation for some citique.
I have two most likely counts... slightly favor the white since that was my earlier analysis, but as time goes by I'm leaning more to the yellow.
Either way I expect a bottoming out soon.
PS: Logique, I think you're quite right here about Henry.
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Sean K
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: XAO Analysis
4500 looks important as a potential support level but the combination of Labors proposed tax on the mining industry is dragging down resources and the European Sovereign debt crisis is slamming the financials.
The speed of the recent retrace on the xao from 5000 to 4520 is dramatic (near enough 500 points in 16 days, 10%) but is not as dramatic in comparison to the drop from 6434 (02-01-2008) to 5210 (22-01-2008) 19% in roughly the same number of trading days.But that was only the start of the sub prime fallout.
Is this recent drop the start of round two, it has broken all of my recent support lines?
4500 looks important as a potential support level but the combination of Labors proposed tax on the mining industry is dragging down resources and the European Sovereign debt crisis is slamming the financials.
The speed of the recent retrace on the xao from 5000 to 4520 is dramatic (near enough 500 points in 16 days, 10%) but is not as dramatic in comparison to the drop from 6434 (02-01-2008) to 5210 (22-01-2008) 19% in roughly the same number of trading days.But that was only the start of the sub prime fallout.
Is this recent drop the start of round two, it has broken all of my recent support lines?
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IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Re: XAO Analysis
Actually the VIX is looking rather nice.
Actually the VIX is looking rather nice.
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Re: XAO Analysis
In the words of Pauline, "please explain"??
As an aside, the euro leaders have passed a $158 billion 'stabilization fund'. Obvious question, is this enough in the short term to arrest the recent drops in world markets? What do people feel will happen from here? Will market(s) pick up again in the short term and bounce of recent resistance levels? Further drops beyond this point would be based on fear alone.
In the words of Pauline, "please explain"??
As an aside, the euro leaders have passed a $158 billion 'stabilization fund'. Obvious question, is this enough in the short term to arrest the recent drops in world markets? What do people feel will happen from here? Will market(s) pick up again in the short term and bounce of recent resistance levels? Further drops beyond this point would be based on fear alone.
Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Just a bit of an aftershock... a wakeup call for those lethargic greeks and spaniards etc to stop buggering about protesting and bite the bullet, err get busy plugging some leaky cash holes instead of rocking the boat, before their boat sinks underneath them.
Just a bit of an aftershock... a wakeup call for those lethargic greeks and spaniards etc to stop buggering about protesting and bite the bullet, err get busy plugging some leaky cash holes instead of rocking the boat, before their boat sinks underneath them.
tech/a
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Whiskers
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Logique
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Re: XAO Analysis
Still a hung parliament in the UK, and maybe another election needed this year. Still uncertainty of the european PIIGS economies. Still this ridiculous proposed RSPT in Australia (ie the 'Canadian miners stimulus package'...I bet the Canadians can hardly believe their luck). Gee, if the miners have to pay more tax, do you think they might just pass this straight on to customers via increases in their prices?? Where does this end up? In your power bills and mine.
Anyway, look for the FTSE100 to hold above 5,000, the Dow above 10,000, and the All ords above 4,000 (or 4,100 as Whiskers seems to be implying, but then I don't understand that mysterious alchemy called Elliott Waves).
My gut feeling is that the Europeans will eventually get it together, and that in the meantime the strengthening US economy will provide some stability in world markets. The V-shaped recovery just became a W that's all.
Not saying we couldn't have an oversold rally, but in the near term I don't see the wider influences unwinding too quickly.
Still a hung parliament in the UK, and maybe another election needed this year. Still uncertainty of the european PIIGS economies. Still this ridiculous proposed RSPT in Australia (ie the 'Canadian miners stimulus package'...I bet the Canadians can hardly believe their luck). Gee, if the miners have to pay more tax, do you think they might just pass this straight on to customers via increases in their prices?? Where does this end up? In your power bills and mine.
Anyway, look for the FTSE100 to hold above 5,000, the Dow above 10,000, and the All ords above 4,000 (or 4,100 as Whiskers seems to be implying, but then I don't understand that mysterious alchemy called Elliott Waves).
My gut feeling is that the Europeans will eventually get it together, and that in the meantime the strengthening US economy will provide some stability in world markets. The V-shaped recovery just became a W that's all.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
What does the trumpet pattern in the chat herald?
A rebound? You could see good ol' Aussie optimism on Friday as bargain hunters moved to pick up resource stocks, before the XAO pulled back late. Doubt the super tax will have much effect beyond initial mining lobby outrage. We could well see a bounce this week, and the Sarkozy-led fighting fund to protect the Euro should bolster markets, for a while.
More likely, any rebound will be short-lived, and the XAO will break to the downside. European leaders and the ECB will have to do a lot more fancy footwork to assure markets the Euro zone won't crumble. Seems unlikely, but any whiff of bad news like another credit rating downgrade will further batter panicked markets.
Regardless, Eurodebt won't be resolved overnight and shockwaves will keep hitting recovering markets for months. Looks like we might be in for a ranging XAO somewhere between 4000 and 5000 this year. It seems the index will struggle to get much above 5000, when recent rises have all been driven by the blue chips. How high can BHP and the big four banks (which are what, nearly 40% of the market) keep going? BHP, Comm Bank and Westpac were near record highs in April, while most of the market lagged and retail investors remain obsessed with real estate.
What does the trumpet pattern in the chat herald?
A rebound? You could see good ol' Aussie optimism on Friday as bargain hunters moved to pick up resource stocks, before the XAO pulled back late. Doubt the super tax will have much effect beyond initial mining lobby outrage. We could well see a bounce this week, and the Sarkozy-led fighting fund to protect the Euro should bolster markets, for a while.
More likely, any rebound will be short-lived, and the XAO will break to the downside. European leaders and the ECB will have to do a lot more fancy footwork to assure markets the Euro zone won't crumble. Seems unlikely, but any whiff of bad news like another credit rating downgrade will further batter panicked markets.
Regardless, Eurodebt won't be resolved overnight and shockwaves will keep hitting recovering markets for months. Looks like we might be in for a ranging XAO somewhere between 4000 and 5000 this year. It seems the index will struggle to get much above 5000, when recent rises have all been driven by the blue chips. How high can BHP and the big four banks (which are what, nearly 40% of the market) keep going? BHP, Comm Bank and Westpac were near record highs in April, while most of the market lagged and retail investors remain obsessed with real estate.
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Oh, Yeah.
On your chart, is that your count or the software one?
I originally looked at an impulse count for your wave 5, but in the end I leaned to an abc. But I've found that often the end result can be the same for different possible counts.
So it's still anxious times to see whether todays rebound kicks on, or is the proverbial bear market rally. I'm a little buoyed by the strength of todays rebound given the US finished lower Friday.
Oh, Yeah.
On your chart, is that your count or the software one?
I originally looked at an impulse count for your wave 5, but in the end I leaned to an abc. But I've found that often the end result can be the same for different possible counts.
So it's still anxious times to see whether todays rebound kicks on, or is the proverbial bear market rally. I'm a little buoyed by the strength of todays rebound given the US finished lower Friday.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
The software.
There will be carnage on shorts before a continuation down to 4100 ish
The software.
There will be carnage on shorts before a continuation down to 4100 ish
Julia
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Re: XAO Analysis
For the last two and a half years, there has simply been one artificial move after another. The fundamental problems of excessive debt are still there.
Or perhaps further drops would simply reflect the reality of the situation, i.e. that nothing much has changed other than a shifting around of paper, contaminating the reasonable balance sheets of e.g. Germany with the junk of Greece.
For the last two and a half years, there has simply been one artificial move after another. The fundamental problems of excessive debt are still there.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Some of us amateur EW's are still around and making a quiet squid rather than copping flak
Closed this out today, W.4 next do you think and then a final ride down on a W.5 ?
(click to expand)
Some of us amateur EW's are still around and making a quiet squid rather than copping flak
Closed this out today, W.4 next do you think and then a final ride down on a W.5 ?
(click to expand)
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Positive Expectancy
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Re: XAO Analysis
Looking back to the January - Febuary 2008 xao chart, it bounced for 5-6 days after the panic downward spike, then fell back to the low point over the next 30 trading days.
We had a bounce yesterday with the prospects of another rise today, will history repeat itself through May June 2010? Who is going to call it?
Looking back to the January - Febuary 2008 xao chart, it bounced for 5-6 days after the panic downward spike, then fell back to the low point over the next 30 trading days.
We had a bounce yesterday with the prospects of another rise today, will history repeat itself through May June 2010? Who is going to call it?
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
Think its already been called above you.
Nice trade Boggo!
Think its already been called above you.
Nice trade Boggo!