Whiskers
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
looking promising at the moment Whiskers! strong reactions in the US, Goldman down more than 10%. Aus leading the way again?
This might be the top. Chance of a reasonably Evening Star forming what with it being Friday and fadeing.
looking promising at the moment Whiskers! strong reactions in the US, Goldman down more than 10%. Aus leading the way again?
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: XAO Analysis
7 of the last 8 weeks have seen weekly gains on the djia, with a similar effect on the xao here in Australia. On Friday the xao finished above 5000. Last night at one point the djia fell 170 points and was below the 11,000 level but it rallied to finish above the 11,000 point.
The fall in the US was attributed to uncertainty with how far reaching the SEC action against Goldman Sachs would be in the finance sector. Goldman Sachs dropped 13%.
No doubt there will be an initial reaction to this on the xao on Monday. However I expect that we will see a rally after the initial fall as bargain hunters move back in.
7 of the last 8 weeks have seen weekly gains on the djia, with a similar effect on the xao here in Australia. On Friday the xao finished above 5000. Last night at one point the djia fell 170 points and was below the 11,000 level but it rallied to finish above the 11,000 point.
The fall in the US was attributed to uncertainty with how far reaching the SEC action against Goldman Sachs would be in the finance sector. Goldman Sachs dropped 13%.
No doubt there will be an initial reaction to this on the xao on Monday. However I expect that we will see a rally after the initial fall as bargain hunters move back in.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Dj down last night, we need a 73 point drop to close the gap that remains in the XAO chart at 4924. Until then can I see the onward March continuing.
This pause, small correction is much needed with some becoming nervous that the growth in recent weeks was unsustainable.
Cheers
Dj down last night, we need a 73 point drop to close the gap that remains in the XAO chart at 4924. Until then can I see the onward March continuing.
This pause, small correction is much needed with some becoming nervous that the growth in recent weeks was unsustainable.
Cheers
Re: XAO Analysis
This subject has already been touched on by TH but........
Satan,
There are gaps on the XAO nearly everyday. The problem is because of the staggered opening and the way ASX works out the opening tick on the index it doesn't show up on index charts.
The point is trying to use the gaps that you can actually see on your charts provided by data providers like Premium Data give you "false data" as far as gaps are concerned on the XAO chart. So to place significance on one gap even though there are others you can't see due to the data you're using that haven't been filled is a bit haphazard imo.
I have attached a 1 hour chart of the SPI to show how often the indexes actually gap around.
This subject has already been touched on by TH but........
Satan,
There are gaps on the XAO nearly everyday. The problem is because of the staggered opening and the way ASX works out the opening tick on the index it doesn't show up on index charts.
The point is trying to use the gaps that you can actually see on your charts provided by data providers like Premium Data give you "false data" as far as gaps are concerned on the XAO chart. So to place significance on one gap even though there are others you can't see due to the data you're using that haven't been filled is a bit haphazard imo.
I have attached a 1 hour chart of the SPI to show how often the indexes actually gap around.
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: XAO Analysis
Our recent gains in the xao appears to be on the back of growing and sustained confidence in the Australian Economy. The xao demonstrates a steady gain rather then spurts and appears to be relatively uneffected by the bad news popping up in various European Countries.
The doomsayers have been sprooking a hefty retrace for some time, which has not eventuated. Personaly I think it would be more likely (a hefty retrace) if the gains had been sudden and rapid rather than slow and prolongued. No doubt the retrace in banking on the djia last night will give the shorters some "short" joy, however I will not be closing out all my holds for the crash just yet.
Our recent gains in the xao appears to be on the back of growing and sustained confidence in the Australian Economy. The xao demonstrates a steady gain rather then spurts and appears to be relatively uneffected by the bad news popping up in various European Countries.
The doomsayers have been sprooking a hefty retrace for some time, which has not eventuated. Personaly I think it would be more likely (a hefty retrace) if the gains had been sudden and rapid rather than slow and prolongued. No doubt the retrace in banking on the djia last night will give the shorters some "short" joy, however I will not be closing out all my holds for the crash just yet.
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Re: XAO Analysis
How much significance is the question and the assumption that you made that I believe it is significant.
If we are a day or two away from closing a gap then I will wait and see if it gets closes rather than add to trades.
The last time I addressed the gaps we have seen all the gaps closed from the last Jan correction. Significant or not, the reality is they were closed.
The XAO chart is also clearly showing bearish divergence on dailies and starting to form on weeklies. Another indicator that we will head lower for the short term. Maybe just low enough to close the gaps.
Cheers
How much significance is the question and the assumption that you made that I believe it is significant.
If we are a day or two away from closing a gap then I will wait and see if it gets closes rather than add to trades.
The last time I addressed the gaps we have seen all the gaps closed from the last Jan correction. Significant or not, the reality is they were closed.
The XAO chart is also clearly showing bearish divergence on dailies and starting to form on weeklies. Another indicator that we will head lower for the short term. Maybe just low enough to close the gaps.
Cheers
Re: XAO Analysis
By the bold bits you are placing significance on the gaps, you are basing your trading strategies around them. What about the gaps you can't see due to the dodgy method used by the ASX? That chart I posted shows the index spends most of its time gapping overnight and then trying to fill during the day session. The point is there are gaps all the way up from about 4650 that have yet to be closed, so why is that one gap any more significant then the others?
Divergence is nice but the problem is now you are 2 days behind the move and there has been signs of divergence for a while on the XAO chart - so when do you know when to pay more attention to it? The short term top was called a couple of days ago to nearly the point and another experienced trader on this forum called the it to the date, nearly the minute in fact (to me in private discussions), this allows you to actually front run the move not follow it.
IMO you place too much importance on divergence and gaps.
By the bold bits you are placing significance on the gaps, you are basing your trading strategies around them. What about the gaps you can't see due to the dodgy method used by the ASX? That chart I posted shows the index spends most of its time gapping overnight and then trying to fill during the day session. The point is there are gaps all the way up from about 4650 that have yet to be closed, so why is that one gap any more significant then the others?
Divergence is nice but the problem is now you are 2 days behind the move and there has been signs of divergence for a while on the XAO chart - so when do you know when to pay more attention to it? The short term top was called a couple of days ago to nearly the point and another experienced trader on this forum called the it to the date, nearly the minute in fact (to me in private discussions), this allows you to actually front run the move not follow it.
IMO you place too much importance on divergence and gaps.
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Re: XAO Analysis
I cannot be bothered getting into a debate on what I place more or less significance on or whether the gaps you see or I see are any more significant than each other. As for the divergence, well it has been three days since I started placing shorts again, was I to early. Was my timing incorrect, only time will tell.
I also note that you to mention divergence and the same gap, your divergence and gap must be more significant than mine, but please do not place to much significance of these in your trading plan, a gun GURU told me not to.
Cheers
I cannot be bothered getting into a debate on what I place more or less significance on or whether the gaps you see or I see are any more significant than each other. As for the divergence, well it has been three days since I started placing shorts again, was I to early. Was my timing incorrect, only time will tell.
I also note that you to mention divergence and the same gap, your divergence and gap must be more significant than mine, but please do not place to much significance of these in your trading plan, a gun GURU told me not to.
Cheers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yes i am a true internet guru swami.
thankyou for the accolades
but what happens in the chatroom ..........stays in the chatroom........
Yes i am a true internet guru swami.
thankyou for the accolades
but what happens in the chatroom ..........stays in the chatroom........
Re: XAO Analysis
I don't know why I bother sometimes
I never mentioned anything about gaps, below is what I stated - there is no mention of a gap, that level just happens to be at the same level as a visible gap but it is a level I mentioned because it comes up under the same system I used to indicate the 5035-5050 area and has nothing to do with the gap. I actually think 4800 could be the more likely area now, but that will change in the next few weeks.
This is the divergence I mentioned on the weekly. Obviously I'm not placing much signifcance on it at all. It was just an interesting observation.
Gaps and divergence are handy tools and should be part of a traders toolbox, no doubt about it but the point I was making is that they need to be used in conjunction with other things and there are times to ignore them.
If you refer to my first post calling 5035-5050 area you will see I actually ignored significant divergence on the indicator because other things were telling me to ignore it.
I don't know why I bother sometimes
I never mentioned anything about gaps, below is what I stated - there is no mention of a gap, that level just happens to be at the same level as a visible gap but it is a level I mentioned because it comes up under the same system I used to indicate the 5035-5050 area and has nothing to do with the gap. I actually think 4800 could be the more likely area now, but that will change in the next few weeks.
This is the divergence I mentioned on the weekly. Obviously I'm not placing much signifcance on it at all. It was just an interesting observation.
Gaps and divergence are handy tools and should be part of a traders toolbox, no doubt about it but the point I was making is that they need to be used in conjunction with other things and there are times to ignore them.
If you refer to my first post calling 5035-5050 area you will see I actually ignored significant divergence on the indicator because other things were telling me to ignore it.
Re: XAO Analysis
You are right, you have provided some great calls and I've made plenty off them............by fading them:
Yes i am a true internet guru swami.
thankyou for the accolades
but what happens in the chatroom ..........stays in the chatroom........
You are right, you have provided some great calls and I've made plenty off them............by fading them
:Re: XAO Analysis
The point I'm trying to make Satan is that the XAO chart is not the same as a normal stock chart because the opening price is not accurate due to the staggered opening, so therefore the gaps that appear on the chart are not accurate.
The point I'm trying to make Satan is that the XAO chart is not the same as a normal stock chart because the opening price is not accurate due to the staggered opening, so therefore the gaps that appear on the chart are not accurate.
Re: XAO Analysis
an all sessions chart is good I find, just stick the cash open & close on it to set some context & identify gaps
Re: risk, Vix opening & closing outside the bolly a few days back gave the warning. Vix up 20%+ at one point o/night
an all sessions chart is good I find, just stick the cash open & close on it to set some context & identify gaps
Re: risk, Vix opening & closing outside the bolly a few days back gave the warning. Vix up 20%+ at one point o/night
Kryzz
shaun
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Re: XAO Analysis
Good call whiskers, 2 weeks later a fakeout and back into the range approaching a moderate line of support, maybe a few more down days/consolidation before this pullback gets bought..yet again?
This might be the top. Chance of a reasonably Evening Star forming what with it being Friday and fadeing.
Good call whiskers, 2 weeks later a fakeout and back into the range approaching a moderate line of support, maybe a few more down days/consolidation before this pullback gets bought..yet again?
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: XAO Analysis
After the friday night close off for the djia and the nasdaq, I would be amazed if the xao was to hold above the support level of 4800. I would not be surprised to see it test 4700 - 4720. I expect the fallout of the Henry Tax revue will push resources to have a meltdown and banks will go along for part of the ride on the growing unease of the European sovereign debt crisis.
After the friday night close off for the djia and the nasdaq, I would be amazed if the xao was to hold above the support level of 4800. I would not be surprised to see it test 4700 - 4720. I expect the fallout of the Henry Tax revue will push resources to have a meltdown and banks will go along for part of the ride on the growing unease of the European sovereign debt crisis.
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Logique
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Re: XAO Analysis
It's not all bad in regard to the proposed Super Profits Tax. It's still just a proposal. IMHO it won't get through the Senate in this term of the parliament (if it's introduced at all). And you can expect the minerals council to lobby long and hard against it, not to mention the Coalition before and during the election.
For junior explorers it's not too bad, because they would get the rebate on exploration costs. Only when, and if, they become super profitable - after capital and exploration costs - would they have to start paying 'super tax'. Take a look at some of our favourite trading stocks, a lot aren't in profit or anywhere near it. Yet are well regarded by traders.
I think this Super Profits Tax proposal on resources will see portfolio rebalancing away from resources towards utilities, property, consumer staples and similar defensives. Oh and cash. And a lot of foreign investment capital emigrating offshore.
The timing of this ann. from the Australian govt is one of the most annoying things. We did not need this - with the precariousness of the Greek, and perhaps other PIGS nations economies already making people jumpy.
Almost guarantees a cycling of indices down to lower range support levels.
Edit: apology to the Mods, this post probably should have gone on the banter thread.
It's not all bad in regard to the proposed Super Profits Tax. It's still just a proposal. IMHO it won't get through the Senate in this term of the parliament (if it's introduced at all). And you can expect the minerals council to lobby long and hard against it, not to mention the Coalition before and during the election.
For junior explorers it's not too bad, because they would get the rebate on exploration costs. Only when, and if, they become super profitable - after capital and exploration costs - would they have to start paying 'super tax'. Take a look at some of our favourite trading stocks, a lot aren't in profit or anywhere near it. Yet are well regarded by traders.
I think this Super Profits Tax proposal on resources will see portfolio rebalancing away from resources towards utilities, property, consumer staples and similar defensives. Oh and cash. And a lot of foreign investment capital emigrating offshore.
The timing of this ann. from the Australian govt is one of the most annoying things. We did not need this - with the precariousness of the Greek, and perhaps other PIGS nations economies already making people jumpy.
Almost guarantees a cycling of indices down to lower range support levels.
Edit: apology to the Mods, this post probably should have gone on the banter thread.
Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yeah, the AUD is in near free-fall today and the POG knocking on $1,200 again.
A couple more days of this and our resourse stocks in particular will be looking attractive again, regardless of any Henry review possible tax changes in a couple of years or more.
Yeah, the AUD is in near free-fall today and the POG knocking on $1,200 again.
A couple more days of this and our resourse stocks in particular will be looking attractive again, regardless of any Henry review possible tax changes in a couple of years or more.
Logique
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Re: XAO Analysis
I noticed last night on tv the Newcrest CEO saying his worst case scenario of the effects of the RSPT would be a decline of 5%, although not sure if he meant profitability or company capitalisation.
Each individual company and sector will come up with a different answer on the impact, depending upon the mix of exploration to production, and their current and anticipated 'super' profitability.
But the negative impact should not be 40% or anything like it. I'd suggest it will turn out to be a small fraction of that. That's if an RSPT happens at all. You've got exploration rebates, and also extra funding for infrastructure, such as coal loaders for instance, to soften the blow.
Take ESG. If the forward 12 month valuation is say 1.10, then applying say a minus 10% RSPT impact on that, makes it 0.99.
The 1.10 and the 10% is purely hypothetical you understand. But ESG does a lot of rebate-attracting exploration. 10% may well turn out to be an overstatement of the impact.
Yes, agreed.
I noticed last night on tv the Newcrest CEO saying his worst case scenario of the effects of the RSPT would be a decline of 5%, although not sure if he meant profitability or company capitalisation.
Each individual company and sector will come up with a different answer on the impact, depending upon the mix of exploration to production, and their current and anticipated 'super' profitability.
But the negative impact should not be 40% or anything like it. I'd suggest it will turn out to be a small fraction of that. That's if an RSPT happens at all. You've got exploration rebates, and also extra funding for infrastructure, such as coal loaders for instance, to soften the blow.
Take ESG. If the forward 12 month valuation is say 1.10, then applying say a minus 10% RSPT impact on that, makes it 0.99.
The 1.10 and the 10% is purely hypothetical you understand. But ESG does a lot of rebate-attracting exploration. 10% may well turn out to be an overstatement of the impact.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Whats the storey behind the big bounce back on iron ore stocks today from this morning some have come into the green ??
Whats the storey behind the big bounce back on iron ore stocks today from this morning some have come into the green ??