Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

Jump to new
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
see oil chart.

EDIT; Oh see last post in oil thread.
Click to expand...

Yep, could liquidation be caused by fear also ? and wonder why ?

Anyhow all rosy again, even gold and the HUI up on the close, back buying rainbows, no worries. And everyone knows what my sparkle is.

Time for a stubbie on a satdy
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Go Nuke said:
I think we could see a possible re test of 4500.
4500 is also the 200 Day MA for extra support.

ALTHOUGH...the RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom on Mar 09!!

Oversold enough yet?? :)
Click to expand...

Good call, where do you see it going next? (the above quote was posted at the end of January)
Incidently what settings did you use in incredible charts to display so far back? As per attached.
 

Attachments

  • xao.jpg
    xao.jpg
    171.3 KB · Views: 23
Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Nulla Nulla.

Well as an investor I hope 4500 holds :)

If it fails to hold above 4600, and can't hold 4500, the chart looks to me like I would expect a test of 4300.

I could also see it trading in a range between 4500 & 4800.

I guess I'm particularly bearish as time has gone it this all feels like the GFC2 to me with Europes woes.

As for my settings they are just standard.Over about 1 year I think it was.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Yep, as I said, a bit oversimplistic, wonder about that "hedgie blowing up" though, wonder how that got going, or is there something to it T/H ?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I just think it was a
pure technical play that was going to happen, as seen with most
markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & Commodities)

Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear.
 

Attachments

  • oil2-7.gif
    oil2-7.gif
    9.2 KB · Views: 629
Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
I'm not sure whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I just think it was a
pure technical play that was going to happen, as seen with most
markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & Commodities)

Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear.
Click to expand...

Is there an underlying reason for that? Or is that simply observed? Or is it self-fulfilling because so many people watch those levels? Any ideas Frank?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
Looking back, the last time the 250 DEMA crossed up over the 250 EMA was in October 2003. On most occasions the market has gone on with it. After a pullback I like to believe a circa 45 ° trend trajectory will be maintained.
Click to expand...
Continuing on from the previous post after the cross up and since it appears the pullback has slowed
.
With the Aust. market subdued today in wait of the US markets to open, I have cast an eye over two MA's that cross up infrequently but when they do a rally ensues (one occasion post 1987 it died). Over the last 20 years as can be seen on the wide angle shot, there has been 5 crosses up of these MA's. Only 2 this century and one as recent as January this year. The 1991 cross rallied for 8 months but was overcome by a short 6 month bear market before flying again.

Am I saying the markets will rally again now this cross up has happened? I don't like to commit to any firm yesses. :D

p.s. circa 45 ° is not appropriate 'cause angle is time frame dependent and a circa figure not good enough really. ;)
 

Attachments

  • 1.JPG
    1.JPG
    85.9 KB · Views: 6
  • untitled.jpg
    untitled.jpg
    78.9 KB · Views: 8
Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
I'm not sure whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I just think it was a
pure technical play that was going to happen, as seen with most
markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & Commodities)

Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear.
Click to expand...

Yep I work with that. Now all i need is to find the bloody door.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
Continuing on from the previous post after the cross up and since it appears the pullback has slowed
.
With the Aust. market subdued today in wait of the US markets to open, I have cast an eye over two MA's that cross up infrequently but when they do a rally ensues (one occasion post 1987 it died). Over the last 20 years as can be seen on the wide angle shot, there has been 5 crosses up of these MA's. Only 2 this century and one as recent as January this year. The 1991 cross rallied for 8 months but was overcome by a short 6 month bear market before flying again.

Am I saying the markets will rally again now this cross up has happened? I don't like to commit to any firm yesses. :D

p.s. circa 45 ° is not appropriate 'cause angle is time frame dependent and a circa figure not good enough really. ;)
Click to expand...

One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. The reality is the world financial markets need to wake and realise that we are all in this together. If one goes then we all go.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
I'm not sure whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I just think it was a
pure technical play that was going to happen, as seen with most
markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & Commodities)
Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear.
Click to expand...

I think so too. I mentioned earlier that Base Metals had a fairly striaght line recovery without any significant correction. When they corrected the XAO was bound to correct.

Wysiwyg said:
Am I saying the markets will rally again now this cross up has happened? I don't like to commit to any firm yesses. :D
Click to expand...

YES, YES, YES! ;) :D

I just posted in the EW thread, I reckon we've about completed a larger degree wave '1' and a 'v' wave down for an 'a' of a correction (2).

I don't subscribe to the theory that there is much worse to come. My logic is that even if the 'authorities' are not aware of more significant issues, they will all certainly be looking much more closely than they were in 07 and react much more promptly.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

For what its worth there has been a divergence between the XAO and the RSI.

Higher RSI, lower XAO.

I still expect to see some support on the 200 day MA.

9800 is the 200 day on the DJIA.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looking at the XAO chart at midday Southern Time, it looks as if the instos have initially pushed up the price and offloaded a good many stocks in anticipation of a fall on the ftse and dj tonight.

gg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Looking at the XAO chart at midday Southern Time, it looks as if the instos have initially pushed up the price and offloaded a good many stocks in anticipation of a fall on the ftse and dj tonight.

gg
Click to expand...

The volumes make this analysis questionable. The only share really pumping volumes in the last two days was tls and possibly a few reits that don't know whether they should be going up to match nta or falling because their yields are lower compared to their debt heavy borrowing days.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Looking at the XAO chart at midday Southern Time, it looks as if the instos have initially pushed up the price and offloaded a good many stocks in anticipation of a fall on the ftse and dj tonight.

gg
Click to expand...

ES down 10 so far on the china/europe gdp news that just came out.:)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nulla nulla said:
Would you mind providing a definition of "Analysis" so I know which site I can post in without fear of incurring your wrath?
Click to expand...

The XAO Banter Thread is for more general commentary while this thread is primarily intended for technical analysis of the XAO.

The banter thread was created because those who wanted to discuss the XAO purely in terms of TA were getting frustrated that more general XAO chat was taking the thread off topic and the discussion was becoming less focussed and more confusing.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Joe Blow said:
The XAO Banter Thread is for more general commentary while this thread is primarily intended for technical analysis of the XAO.

The banter thread was created because those who wanted to discuss the XAO purely in terms of TA were getting frustrated that more general XAO chat was taking the thread off topic and the discussion was becoming less focussed and more confusing.
Click to expand...

Thanks Joe.
Looking at the charts arround the world yesterday and over the weekend, I can't help but feel we are going past a 10% correction and venturing into a protracted bear market. The XAO has dropped from high 4900's (and the djia has dropped from almost 11,000).
There was a significant lack of volume in trading on the xao yesterday causing the market to slide further as more shareholders sold down. This downward spiral was reflected in the Asian and European markets overnight. The European markets are reacting to the bad news comming out of Greece and wondring if this will turn into their own version of the US sub-prime mortgage fiasco as more European countries fess up to dodgy figures and escalating debt. This appears to be effecting Australian companies with global exposure, particularly those in Infrastructure and reit's with large European and/or US property port folio's.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My analysis is that we may see some downside shortly. RSI is overbought, resistance has been met, and on the 4 hour chart we are still in a downtrend. It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street tonight, as the majority of our moves are lead by them...
 

Attachments

  • Untitled.jpg
    Untitled.jpg
    49.7 KB · Views: 461
Top