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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street tonight, as the majority of our moves are lead by them...
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I think I have heard that one somewhere before, must be true. For anyone interested here is a spreadsheet with DOW vs XJO moves with the dates offset by one day to show what our market did after the US close. I've highlighted about 30 days out of the last 90 odd where we did our own thing by 1% or more, most times in the other direction. thats 30% of the time folks,
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
I'm not talking about the next day, I'm talking about when the moves are occurring...
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Sorry not sure what that means? If the moves are led by "wall street" then we should be following the next day in there lead ie moving similar amount, in similar direction?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
My analysis is that we may see some downside shortly. RSI is overbought, resistance has been met, and on the 4 hour chart we are still in a downtrend. It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street tonight, as the majority of our moves are lead by them...
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I would exactly call that bounce on feb 3rd resitance.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Not a good H&S imo Edwood.

I think there have been better shaped ones that have/ may succeded (red) and have/will fail (blue).

My best guess from my FA and most favoured EW count is that it may go a little lower before breaking up again for a minor b wave, before revisiting these levels and going on and upwards again... something like the blue arrow.

We have a higher high, just need a higher low... but many EW'ers are talking up the start of a wave 3 down, down, down... :cautious:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Not a good H&S imo Edwood.

I think there have been better shaped ones that have/ may succeded (red) and have/will fail (blue).
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Hi Whiskers yep the final shape could go higher, its more the head & distance to neckline that I'm interested in - could end up a hunchback yet :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

AP is reporting UK 4th quarter economic growth revised up from 0.1% to 0.3%... another bit of data supporting my FA of lessening chance of big falls in our market if other major markets are continuing to show some signs of improvement... but, I'm always open to a compelling arguement to the contrary.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

yep looks as tho we're out of jail for the moment, Vix recovered and now back to recent lows.
Unfortunately +ve gdp doesn't necessarily mean growth - see Japan the last 20 years. And it doesn't solve fundamental Eur issues.
But that doesn't mean we can't bounce near-term as you say, bull markets climb a wall of worry - problem comes when that bull market is just correcting a bear.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
yep looks as tho we're out of jail for the moment, Vix recovered and now back to recent lows.
Unfortunately +ve gdp doesn't necessarily mean growth - see Japan the last 20 years. And it doesn't solve fundamental Eur issues.
But that doesn't mean we can't bounce near-term as you say, bull markets climb a wall of worry - problem comes when that bull market is just correcting a bear.
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Europe and the US seem to be shedding or climbing over a bit of that worry atm, all up around 1% overnight.

Based on solid FA data, I predict we'll rise today! :p:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Oh yes, I momentarily forgot about the RBA decision and that little wall of worry there today.

According to the SMH the AUD is maintaining strength in anticipation of a .25 rise. Much of the recent data would support that, BUT...

But the Australian Bureau of Statistics retail trade for January, the ABS building approvals for January and ABS data on government spending for December is due out.
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Existing property sale prices are up quite a bit, but if new building approvals are slow that would negate that. Not sure Jan retail sales are going to be too hot and with gov stimulus spending due to ease back, I wouldn't be too surprised if the RBA defied the 'experts' and left rates steady again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Lot's of talk for months of the imminent top and a retreat to sub 4000. This thread has gone quiet.

Lots of worries, ARMS reset , Europe, China decelerating etc...

What are the odds of a melt-UP. Virtually no-one predicting it..

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone have a VSA opinion here? Would an increase in volume mean a greater chance of clearing 5,000, or more a blow off top type scenario?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Shaun,

You're looking at xmas/holiday volume compared to now volume, no comparison in my opinion. If talking volume you need to compare like with like..

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm thinking we're probably far enough advanced in this 'b' leg to make a prediction now.

I'd say wave 'i' extended and a diag triangle formed to finish off.

I'm expecting it to reverse before 4975.5, but maybe not for a few days yet.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kryzz said:
Anyone have a VSA opinion here? Would an increase in volume mean a greater chance of clearing 5,000, or more a blow off top type scenario?
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brty said:
Shaun,

You're looking at xmas/holiday volume compared to now volume, no comparison in my opinion. If talking volume you need to compare like with like..

brty
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Whiskers said:
I'm thinking we're probably far enough advanced in this 'b' leg to make a prediction now.

I'd say wave 'i' extended and a diag triangle formed to finish off.

I'm expecting it to reverse before 4975.5, but maybe not for a few days yet.
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If you consider that the rise in late December early January was a false rally on small volumes, then the downward run from November bottomed in February and the market is now in a true rally.
Whether or not it has run it's course and will now turn down to "Sub 4000" levels remains to be seen. The DJIA continues to test the resistance level of 10,900 - 11,000 and the xao continues to head butt the resistance level of 4950.
In my opinion, the volumes of trade at present reflect a lack of participation and confidence in the market, making a retrace more likely (can't see the basis for it falling to 4000 and lower though).
 
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