XAO Technical Analysis

[Aussiest]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'll wait and see for a couple of days as to whether a more significant reversal has started... ie I'll let Wall street have a day or two to get over their chokeing cough and let reality settle back in.

That's what i'm thinking. Am guestimating that DOW and XAO may experience upswing on Mon, Tues, due to severe fall (DOW ~ 500 points in 3 days), i'm looking at wed, thurs for a clearer picture.

The thing that gets me is that our reporting season this quarter may not be so bad (TBC of course). What got us through the 3rd and 4th quarters last year was "better than expected" data - let's see if it holds this time round :dunno:

 

[lioness]

Re: XAO Analysis

That's what i'm thinking. Am guestimating that DOW and XAO may experience upswing on Mon, Tues, due to severe fall (DOW ~ 500 points in 3 days), i'm looking at wed, thurs for a clearer picture.

The thing that gets me is that our reporting season this quarter may not be so bad (TBC of course). What got us through the 3rd and 4th quarters last year was "better than expected" data - let's see if it holds this time round :dunno:

Tuesday no trading as Australia Day is a national public holiday. Come back Wednesday which may be worse for us!!

 

[Aussiest]

Re: XAO Analysis

Tuesday no trading as Australia Day is a national public holiday. Come back Wednesday which may be worse for us!!

Oops, yeah, good point! I'm used to working on public holidays, so never factor them in as 'holidays'. Could be worse for us. DOW might kick up Mon night, but overall sentiment seems bearish... Still be interested to see how our reporting season will effect the overall market though.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

In my opinion the DOW will fall from here as the financial share holders pull their money out and stay out of the market until they find somewhere else to put it. For this we can thank Barak Obama for shooting his mouth off about what he wants to do to the big U.S merchant banks. Stupid thing is he has to get it past congress first and given they lost the "kenedy" seat I doubt he will have enough support. None-the-less, the damages is done and a retrace has started.

While Swan has assured the Australian public there is no need for such drastic action here, the initial reaction of the market is to follow the U.S lead and off load their bank shares. Given the opportunistic actions of the big 4 during the crisis of swallowing competition and consolidating their local positions (as well as expanding internationaly where bargains have arisen), I doubt we really need to savage the banks shares as much as they have and will be.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

It will be a bit like Haiti, shock, then in a few days the bad guys, shorters and others will come out.

gg

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

It will be a bit like Haiti, shock, then in a few days the bad guys, shorters and others will come out.

gg

Yep, then the margin lenders will get their calls to cough up some dollars to reduce the gearing levels or sell off to cover their positions and there will be a further sell down , then the bargain hunters will step in and push prices up a little.

 

[satanoperca]

Re: XAO Analysis

Purely from a technical perspective, will the gaps from the last two days trading and potential gap down on Monday after the falls on the Dow on Friday be filled in the coming weeks.

Going back through the years I cannot find another period where there has been three consecutive gap down days.

This is either a knee jerk reaction to China and Obama or the start of a major correction.

Either way, it would seem difficult for the market to gain enough momentum in the coming months to push back up to 5000.

Yes, I short the market and no I'm not a really bad guy.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

Purely from a technical perspective, will the gaps from the last two days trading and potential gap down on Monday after the falls on the Dow on Friday be filled in the coming weeks.

Going back through the years I cannot find another period where there has been three consecutive gap down days.

This is either a knee jerk reaction to China and Obama or the start of a major correction.

Either way, it would seem difficult for the market to gain enough momentum in the coming months to push back up to 5000.

Yes, I short the market and no I'm not a really bad guy.

Sorry mate, there was a comma between bad guys and shorters.

Shorters are not bad guys.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

From the opening it looks as if it will be down between 1 and 1.5% by the end of the day.

Folk will wait for Wall St.tonight, and Wednesday will see some movement either way.

gg

 

[BNECBD_DayTrader]

Re: XAO Analysis

Folk will wait for Wall St.tonight, and Wednesday will see some movement either way.

gg

Yes, and so will Thursday, and Friday, and every other trading day for that matter.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, and so will Thursday, and Friday, and every other trading day for that matter.

The charts don't exactly match BN.... or do they? Also, China has been a big influence on Australia the past year or so also, but again, just a hunch.

 

[BNECBD_DayTrader]

Re: XAO Analysis

What exactly are the charts meant to match?

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

What exactly are the charts meant to match?

Sorry, I must have said something confusing.

Can you put up a chart of the DJI and XAO of the past 10 years? Do they match? Do we follow them day by day? I thought that you were suggesting that we blindly follow the US..

 

[BNECBD_DayTrader]

Re: XAO Analysis

ahh nope.. not sure why you assumed that.

GG made a post stating "Folk will wait for Wall St.tonight, and Wednesday will see some movement either way."

I was commenting that we would also see movement on Thursday, Friday etc...

(Being sarcastic, - yes GG, thats correct, there will be movement in the stock market... perhaps some T\A of WHERE the market will move would assist..)

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

DOW +41.87 +0.41% at 10,236.16. NASDAQ +17.68 +0.80% at 2,221.41.

IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

DOW +41.87 +0.41% at 10,236.16. NASDAQ +17.68 +0.80% at 2,221.41.

IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.

I luv a near term prediction, should be alot more of them. Too many bizarre 5 year charts that no-one would ever trade from. The late ES 15 point rally after the fomc is financials related with a drop in worldwide bonds. So the aussie banks should certainly apply up pressure today on the xao. But what about the energy/mining/gold sectors? Oil, copper and gold all went down last night with the rising USD and the fomc didnt seem to change their course. But there is bullish hope for these sectors, as my charts indicate some 'bottom volume' for oil and copper which may add to bullishness if these two turn up today. I also thought the AUD and EUR had bottom volume, so the USD may turn down soon as well.

And if the USD and USB both start falling together, the ES might climb for a few days yet. We'll see, Im still learning about all these inter-relationships.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.

I think the XAO has been more in step with the rest of Asia than the States for some time now.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

DOW +41.87 +0.41% at 10,236.16. NASDAQ +17.68 +0.80% at 2,221.41.

IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.

The XAO jumped a little at open, fell back, then climbed slowy for a small gain, we are definitely out of step with the DJIA and the Nasdaq, but don't seem to be aligned with the Asian sectors completely either. Bit of a limbo it appears as we try to swap from following the US. Hopefully we wont follow the US lead from last night.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO jumped a little at open, fell back, then climbed slowy for a small gain, we are definitely out of step with the DJIA and the Nasdaq, but don't seem to be aligned with the Asian sectors completely either.

I don't know about that. As everyone has been looking at the US make new highs during Mid Jan on a continual steady up trend, only 7 trading days ago, Asia put in highs back Sep - Nov and hasn't show any life since. We started to go flat/roll over then too but then had a false & unconvincing break at the start of Jan. have a look at these charts a lot closer to our market than the S&P500 or NAS.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Actually if you wanted to compare the XAO/XJO to anything I would be looking at these two risk/carry trade charts (I know others wouldn't )