Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

moXJO said:
Maybe it's time to go long with all the bearish threads out again:D
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It seems the bears were just suffering from premature elation...

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Re: XAO Analysis

RayG said:
Just guessing here, but my interpretation of what's going on is, a lot of those who are wanting the market to drop (seemingly bearish) are just looking to get in at a lower price.

Either way, there seems to be less risk associated with being long, and a higher risk associated with being short, at least in the medium to long term.

So, my bet is 5000 by Christmas. Any takers...

Regards
Ray
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I'm a taker ........... but I think before Christmas!

The market is very touchy for an up! And most funds are still more cashed up than usual.

Hopefully there will be some volatility & also some consolidation - but my guess is that the consolidation will be above 5000 - more like 5200.

Interesting times

Mike
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tasmart said:
And most funds are still more cashed up than usual.
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G'Day Mike,

I'm not having a dig but because the above statement has occurred a few times does anyone have any real evidence of funds cashed up and ready to go or is it just anecdotal info from newspaper articles ?

Big funds generally don't outperform the index, if they were really cashed that means they would have bailed out before the crash but this doesn't seem to be the case, funds prices also crashed so that means most of them were fully invested, the better funds that have outperformed i would assume did their buying a few months ago.

The better funds i would also assume have the ability to go short when the time is right.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The way I see it is, there is still a lot of cash around, and, as long as there are enough buyers, pullbacks would be limited. As soon as the market drops a bit, they'll all come in, thinking that they need to get in so they don't miss out on the potential gains anymore. Once all the sheep jump in, that's when the number of buyers reduce, and the severe leg down begins. So, in a nutshell, my opinion is that it is bullish in the short/very-short term. I am holding some longs to reflect this view, however, I'm also keeping an eye out for the turn down.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I just hope that when you all rush to the exit's you don't find that they are nailed shut!
Hey, the window over there might be an option?

:eek::eek::eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone think SPI is trading a bit too cheap atm?

Equivalent to around 4345 cash vs 4377 close. FTSE up lots, US futs up a bit, metals up.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

yea that was odd! why on earth didn't we move higher with them? I went long just before close, and was kind of expecting SPI to move with FTSE and then S&P. Ended up making 5 points tonight on the SPI which is peanuts. Since US open, S&P rallied from about 995 to 1005 in the same time we moved about 20 points. This is forgetting about 10-15 points that we didn't gain when FTSE gained from 5 to 10.30. Oddness all around me here.

In terms of what was said before, I am still very bearish on the overall market. But with all the correction talk out there I am starting to get the feeling that S&P will break 1020 in a false breakout before the end of August. This market is propped up like crazy, and it is frustrating for any bear out there. I found October/November 2008 to me more predictable than the last few weeks out there in the mine fields. Let's see what September brings. My view has not changed about testing March lows either :p
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ivant said:
yea that was odd! why on earth didn't we move higher with them? I went long just before close, and was kind of expecting SPI to move with FTSE and then S&P. Ended up making 5 points tonight on the SPI which is peanuts. Since US open, S&P rallied from about 995 to 1005 in the same time we moved about 20 points. This is forgetting about 10-15 points that we didn't gain when FTSE gained from 5 to 10.30. Oddness all around me here.

In terms of what was said before, I am still very bearish on the overall market. But with all the correction talk out there I am starting to get the feeling that S&P will break 1020 in a false breakout before the end of August. This market is propped up like crazy, and it is frustrating for any bear out there. I found October/November 2008 to me more predictable than the last few weeks out there in the mine fields. Let's see what September brings. My view has not changed about testing March lows either :p
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US rallies, and cash equivalent is below ydays close! Divvies doesn't even acct for much...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Lucky the dow is still a bit bullish,Because there's no confidence on the xao,When the dow has a few Consecutive down days next week that's when we will see how the xao holds up;).
Alot of people still think this is a consolidatation(sideways movement).Well fellas time to check your charts again,With no volume and the lack of conviction from the u.s in volume..gg.
I'll go on the record to say quote " This is a correction taking place now,not a consolidation period".Actually for the record being saying it all week:banghead:.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Dark1975 said:
I'll go on the record to say quote " This is a correction taking place now,not a consolidation period".Actually for the record being saying it all week:banghead:.
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It's pretty easy to say a correction is due when the market has run up so far, so fast.

My taxi driver taking me to school in Lima this morning was telling me he thought the Aussie market was overcooked.

But I had another one tell me the same thing 3 weeks ago.

:confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
It's pretty easy to say a correction is due when the market has run up so far, so fast.
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The question is how far do we correct? And is it then a start of a new down trend or is it just another buying opportunity in this current trend?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
The question is how far do we correct? And is it then a start of a new down trend or is it just another buying opportunity in this current trend?
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Pretty one way traffic at the moment. We've broken through 4310 on the SPI which was a level held up for the past 3 days. Decending triangle target ~4150.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
It's pretty easy to say a correction is due when the market has run up so far, so fast.

My taxi driver taking me to school in Lima this morning was telling me he thought the Aussie market was overcooked.

But I had another one tell me the same thing 3 weeks ago.

:confused:
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I actually stated this on threads before hand two weeks ago,And actually i see alot of threads of recent saying "no the bulls are in control at the moment",Actually im making a statement which many people don't make on this site,I mean there quick to dis-credit information but they dont state there thoughts on the future direction of the market.Think cause there not sure or there worried they might be wrong and there bruise there ego.
Me personally i could be wrong but my guess is the market will pull back 4100-4150 range in the next few weeks.
What's your thoughts mate on the future direction of the market?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

On the XAO 4350 looks important, but how many times have we seemed to break some level of support and then it's bought up? We're really going to have to see some big moves on volume smashing through support for this to change into a decent down trend again. It will probably come, but I'm sick of seeing one days action as the start of the next leg down to 1500, or whatever.
 
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