Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Re: XAO Analysis

lol...nar no panic here ?I've shorted the market the last few days on financials?Going very well:)
But i hear there's alot of traders /wrists on the xao today;)

So you are going to pull up quotes from a few days ago and apply them to today?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

LOL

loves the red days here ....... the bears all strut there stuff

loves the green days here .......... the bulls strut there stuff

both saying "i told you so "

not many saying what there doing about it though ......... oh except a few hindsight calls

gotta love green and red days
 
Re: XAO Analysis

People are finally starting to figure out that stocks were still expensive in March 09.

lol, that's funny compared to todays prices I would say they were cheap;). But I suppose if you sold out back then and missed 3/4 of this rally.........
 
Re: XAO Analysis

LOL

loves the red days here ....... the bears all strut there stuff

loves the green days here .......... the bulls strut there stuff

both saying "i told you so "

not many saying what there doing about it though ......... oh except a few hindsight calls

gotta love green and red days


I'm a bear on both green and red days! At least since the end of Aprilish

What I'm doing is sitting in CASH and not speculating!! Or I guess I am speculating by thinking I'm doing right thing being in cash?? oh ****??:eek:

Best
G
 
Re: XAO Analysis

lol, that's funny compared to todays prices I would say they were cheap;). But I suppose if you sold out back then and missed 3/4 of this rally.........

Sold out at 3800!! Still think I can get in much much cheaper in the next few months:)

G
 
Re: XAO Analysis

LOL

loves the red days here ....... the bears all strut there stuff

loves the green days here .......... the bulls strut there stuff

both saying "i told you so "

not many saying what there doing about it though ......... oh except a few hindsight calls

gotta love green and red days

holding onto the ones i rate long term - AIO (thru SPP), FMG, AOE, CNX, STO, IFN
 
Re: XAO Analysis

an not entering on anything new unless i rate it on the long term fundamentals or see a cheap opportunity.............. unfortunately not at lot of them out here at all at the moment tho
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What's caused the market to go for a row of dunnies today ?

Ummm.... a little more play by the Future Fund dumping on Telstra??? A mere $2.3BILLION worth??

At least, todays Commsec traded data seems to suggest it!
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

If thats it the directors of the FF are on a sure winner if they go short just before dumping the next lot.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What's caused the market to go for a row of dunnies today ?

Last night copper and oil fell,us bonds rose.
Rio's crappy result, future fund selling.
xao support line of last few days broke.
Japanese bonds flew up at 10am, nikkei fell fast.

Thats how I saw it.:2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I've had a few trailing stops triggered today. I'm getting nervous, and happy to move back to a more cash dominant portfolio.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

On reflection, I would think that's a bullish stance, rather than bearish....maybe time for a new avatar?

Regards
Ray


I'm a bull in a bear suit as long as the price is right:)

As soon as I go long my avitar will be the other way around, at least for a little whine.:D

G
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I know this is a XAO thread, but I highly doubt anyone here would be THAT NAIVE to ignore the "correlation" between the US market and our local market. (or rather, the rest of the markets in the world)

I.e. The US market crash but the Aussie market continue to rise to stratosphere, think it could happen?

Check this out.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090821.htm?T

20090821.gif

Chart of the Day
Today's chart illustrates how the recent plunge in earnings has impacted the current valuation of the stock market as measured by the price to earnings ratio (PE ratio). Generally speaking, when the PE ratio is high, stocks are considered to be expensive. When the PE ratio is low, stocks are considered to be inexpensive. From 1936 into the late 1980s, the PE ratio tended to peak in the low 20s (red line) and trough somewhere around seven (green line). The price investors were willing to pay for a dollar of earnings increased during the dot-com boom (late 1990s) and the dot-com bust (early 2000s). As a result of the recent plunge in earnings and recent stock market rally, the PE ratio spiked and just peaked at 144 – a record high. Currently, with 97% of US corporations having reported for Q2 2009, the PE ratio now stands at a lofty 129.


Numbers do not lie here. To bring that PE ratio down to a more reasonable level would ultimately mean a massive increase in their earnings back to pre-bust level. i.e. the peak of the credit boom

Think it's going to happen again?

Regardless, all this do not matters if you can trade the trend and be aware of the bigger picture. The only problem is only for those who cling on the "hope" that the market will go back to its previous peak level very soon and they still have the "buy and hold" mentality and buy the recent rally with margin. (which I see more and more people are doing so, hoping to recover their previous losses or not to miss the "train")
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Ummm.... a little more play by the Future Fund dumping on Telstra??? A mere $2.3BILLION worth??

A T4-style sell-off to institutional investors at a 5% discount that was originally targeted at 497.7 million shares then increased to 683.7 million due to the sheer enthusiasm of the institutions surely isn’t a reason for what happened to the XAO yesterday. I’m upset they didn’t offer this discount to retail investors, since these shares qualify for the 14c final divie.

So have we de-coupled ourselves from the US – they take a 2% hit on weak Japanese GDP numbers while we apparently factored this in earlier and now the Dow up 2 days in a row (thus far anyway) and the XAO sliding into the red, down nearly 2% ready for a ‘told ya September is usually a bad time for stocks’ fall?

If only that DeLoren time-travel machine was real...stand to make a fortune ;-)
 
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