XAO Technical Analysis

[Gordon Gekko]

Re: XAO Analysis

CSI 300 INDEX 3,014.02 -157.97 -4.98% 02:36
SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX 2,911.70 -143.62 -4.70% 02:52
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX 186.59 -6.22 -3.23% 02:53
SHENZHEN SE A SHARE INDX 969.50 -47.64 -4.68% 02:37
SHENZHEN SE B SHARE INDX 474.42 -16.96 -3.45% 02:37
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE IX 2,774.95 -135.93 -4.67% 02:52
SHENZHEN SE COMPOSITE IX 923.17 -45.22 -4.67% 02:37
SHANGHAI SE 180 A SHR IX 6,628.07 -386.06 -5.50% 02:53
SHANGHAI SE 50 A-SHR IDX 2,222.81 -120.00 -5.12% 02:53
SHENZHEN G-SHARES 4,041.87 -193.48 -4.57% 02:37
SHANGHAI G-SHARES 2,352.99 -115.68 -4.69% 02:53
SSE COMPONENT STOCK IX 11,202.46 -570.85 -4.85% 02:37

If it closes at these levels (correct me if I'm wrong) wouldn't that be a 20% correction and the start of a technical bear market??

How do you think that will be perceived by an already nervous investor counting on a stronger for longer China lead to the end of the GFC?

We have only just begun!!

Best of luck
G

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

Agreed with the last few posts the bears are coming out and the correction is now taking place now.Some people are waiting for fund manager's to sell so we can see larger scale volume selling!
But you got to give it a few days for them fund manger's to catch on.Cause going on the past crashes they seem to be a bit behind of events.
Then again it's not there money,no great panic yet gg

 

[Donga]

Re: XAO Analysis

What do you guys call a major correction? I suppose for traders a couple of hundred points can hurt if you're leveraged some. I'm struggling to see what you're seeing. I see debt, been there before. And there is economic pain still ahead, but not the depth and lows that world leaders, bankers etc were talking about earlier in the year. China cannot afford any significant slow down in growth and have the funds to drive a domestic economy, which is what they're doing. As I stated on another thread, we won't see 3900 again unless China/Asia falls in a hole (and the Shanghai dipping 20% from a high earlier in the year doesn't spook me... yet) or something like 9/11. What are your ASX major corrrection forecasts? Best of luck no matter how you play

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

CSI 300 INDEX 3,014.02 -157.97 -4.98% 02:36
SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX 2,911.70 -143.62 -4.70% 02:52
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX 186.59 -6.22 -3.23% 02:53
SHENZHEN SE A SHARE INDX 969.50 -47.64 -4.68% 02:37
SHENZHEN SE B SHARE INDX 474.42 -16.96 -3.45% 02:37
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE IX 2,774.95 -135.93 -4.67% 02:52
SHENZHEN SE COMPOSITE IX 923.17 -45.22 -4.67% 02:37
SHANGHAI SE 180 A SHR IX 6,628.07 -386.06 -5.50% 02:53
SHANGHAI SE 50 A-SHR IDX 2,222.81 -120.00 -5.12% 02:53
SHENZHEN G-SHARES 4,041.87 -193.48 -4.57% 02:37
SHANGHAI G-SHARES 2,352.99 -115.68 -4.69% 02:53
SSE COMPONENT STOCK IX 11,202.46 -570.85 -4.85% 02:37

If it closes at these levels (correct me if I'm wrong) wouldn't that be a 20% correction and the start of a technical bear market??

These figures done mean much when viewed in perspective. The SC has gained over 90% this year, with pretty much no pullback.

How do you think that will be perceived by an already nervous investor counting on a stronger for longer China lead to the end of the GFC?

I doubt there are many weak holders currently, they were shaken out a while ago.

 

[bugmenot]

Re: XAO Analysis

Things could get ugly for those still holding long positions in September...

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Re: XAO Analysis

These figures done mean much when viewed in perspective. The SC has gained over 90% this year, with pretty much no pullback.



I doubt there are many weak holders currently, they were shaken out a while ago.

Yes that's a good point sammy with regard to perspective.
Question:
If it has run up 90% in under a year and is now falling off a cliff over the past 2 weeks, were would you expect it to find support?
Where will the resistance come into play?

Best

G

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes that's a good point sammy with regard to perspective.
Question:
If it has run up 90% in under a year and is now falling off a cliff over the past 2 weeks, were would you expect it to find support?
Where will the resistance come into play?

Best

G

I guess the is the unknown GG, for all we know it could back the 90%. I'm not to concerned about what the SC does, its a nonsensical market. It's volumes, industry sectors and the size of its moves are very different to any other market

Budmenot look at the scale of that graph you posted, do those charts really demonstrate anything?

IMO we are in for pause/drift lower, nevertheless the bulls are still in charge.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

990 right on cue. New lower high in the ES.

First support at 982-3. Just hit, we'll see if she holds. spi about 4335.

Yes, the deflation concerns (aided by the stats), were sure to give somewhat of a bid to bonds and hence a pullout out of 'risk assets'.

Add in the fact that we are once again over-extended to the upside, short interest on the S&P (I think) is extremelly low. Better than expected news has been sold off, and 990 was not only a huge level as far as previous resistance, turned support, turned resistance, but it was the 50% retracement of the previous day where 'they' closed us below the 990 level.

Quite a bit of technical, fundamental and underlying psychological confluence there.

I think we will either see around a 5% pullback from the high, or a move towards the previous swing high at around 955. Not sure if we can get through there as of yet, will have to gauge sentiment along the way and see what figures come out and regulatory hints from the Govs.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thump! That was the sound of chinese market on the afternoon open.

Sold 50% of my holdings today and yesterday... No new long trade for me until the Shanghai finds some support...

Sold today, eek.

20% fall from the high I believe, 'technical bear market or correction', maybe a good time to buy? The Chinese gov has the surplus and the reserves to stimulate their markets and they will.

This should present a good chance to get long the Asian growth story and short the Western growth story for those not on it already. Good spread to run longer-term.

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

is there any thinking that the market may also take a dip in September/ctober when all the independent auditors come out, combined with seasonly being a down time??

also to comment on MRC's comments (ha!) im looking to short US on weakness, long internationals on strength signals

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sold today, eek.

20% fall from the high I believe, 'technical bear market or correction', maybe a good time to buy? The Chinese gov has the surplus and the reserves to stimulate their markets and they will.

This should present a good chance to get long the Asian growth story and short the Western growth story for those not on it already. Good spread to run longer-term.

Depends on what longer-term means...5-10 years, yes. In the short term, there is no Asian growth story without Western growth story imo.

The current XAO downleg feels more potent to me for several reasons.
1. Some common technical levels being reached
2. Market no longer moves up even on good news (France, Germany and Japan out of recession) - whereas it moved up on bad news (or not-as-bad news) during the rally.
3. The last leg up was the most vertical, which means it was closer to the end of the rally.
4. ivant is covering his shorts (ok that wasn't very nice, but an indicator nonetheless)

Individual shares on ASX will stay strong/hold grounds with good results, but the Oz market as a whole can't fight the rest of the world. US doesn't know we have a reporting season going on.

Most of my holdings are now takeover or right issue potentials...

 

[enigmatic]

Re: XAO Analysis

I would definitely agree that XAO seems to be overbought but I dont really see any need for Panic..

I'm a newbie but i would be looking more fore a break of arround 4300 and then finally after that 4150 after that i may consider bearish.

The current down turn should only be looked at as a Bullish correction especially still being above the 10day moving average.. but thats just me..

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well the current futures for the dow looking very negative,And im glad i sold 95% of my portfolio(long term equities)on the xao.Time to bpay MF global to expand my CFD trading account.My view has changed to correction in ther market place.Short selling on xao tommorrow,Should see a good pullback tomorrow on the xao.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

I would be looking for longs tomorrow morning, metals and ftse rebounding as we speak

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Update on my theory, lol.

This rally looks to be on it's last legs now but I'm expecting another test of the high of this rally or maybe even a probe slightly higher. A lower high and lower low is obviously the next sign to look for.


Some divergence showing up too (2nd chart).

 

[Sunder]

Re: XAO Analysis

This rally looks to be on it's last legs now but I'm expecting another test of the high of this rally or maybe even a probe slightly higher. A lower high and lower low is obviously the next sign to look for.

I agree with this assessment. Just closed out all my longs. There might be a few more bucks to squeeze out of this, but I am wary of a more sudden turnaround than I expect.

Not sure if it'll be a strong pullback alla SSE style, or just a small retreat. For me, the price has left fundamentals now, and I'm just trading on signals alone.

 

[moXJO]

Re: XAO Analysis

Maybe it's time to go long with all the bearish threads out again

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some basic S&R from my perspective.

 

[RayG]

Re: XAO Analysis

Maybe it's time to go long with all the bearish threads out again

Just guessing here, but my interpretation of what's going on is, a lot of those who are wanting the market to drop (seemingly bearish) are just looking to get in at a lower price.

This is a bullish stance rather than bearish.

There are a lot of super funds still sitting on cash, if the market keeps rallying they will be forced eventually to get on the bandwagon. On the other hand, since they are looking to buy into any correction that will tend to put a floor under any pull back, I don't think we'll see the asx under 4000 anytime soon, for that to happen you would need some kind of event that sends investors into a blind panic. (cue the black swans)

We seem to be slowly decoupling from our dependency on the USA, after all our major customers are in Asia not the USA.

So, looking at Kennas SR chart, I think 5000 is the next stop, after a period where everyone sits on their hands waiting to see if there is a better buying opportunity. Perhaps a shortlived pullback to 4100 before pushing up to 5000 or higher.

Either way, there seems to be less risk associated with being long, and a higher risk associated with being short, at least in the medium to long term.

So, my bet is 5000 by Christmas. Any takers...

Regards
Ray

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO is acting bearish but the S&P acting bullish. Who do you follow? I personally like to listen to one with the bigger cahunas