XAO Technical Analysis

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Readig the market isnt that hard.



This is true.



This is true.



This is more likely.

Yet neither is Crystal clear.

Click to enlarge

Price Volume & Time

Time suggests that it is LESS SUPPLY

Time here is the number of BARS ( DURATION )
In this rally compared to the last

Same Price Range with Less Volume But also Time.

Ease of Movement ?

Complex( many parts ) Adaptive ( not mechanical ) non linear ( turn on a dime )

means that it is more important to measure output
Than inputs ( you can't )

What is the response
what is the response

rally up
rally down
rally back up BUT QUICKER
lower volume = Less selling pressure

Now what is response
what is response

test response


NON-LINEARITY
The spreading of a wave is not a complex phenomenon, though, because its propagation
is perfectly regular and predictable, and its strength diminishes as its reach widens.

( describes dead things . but not live things like markets that have MINDS )


Processes in complex systems, on the other hand, are often non-linear: their effects are
not proportional to their causes. When the effects are larger than the causes, we may say
that there is an amplification or positive feedback: initially small perturbations reinforce

themselves so as to become ever more intense. An example is the spread of a disease,
where a single infection may eventually turn into a global pandemic. Another example is
the chain reaction that leads to a nuclear explosion.


When the effects are smaller than the
causes, there is a dampening or negative feedback: perturbations are gradually
suppressed, until the system returns to a equilibrium state.


Interactions with positive feedback are very sensitive to their initial conditions: a change
in that condition may be so small that it is intrinsically undetectable, yet result in a
drastically altered outcome.

It just takes 1 share extra to tip the balance
eg 1 share that is not sold or one share that is

Markets are not a dead thing
can not measure inputs in a way that matters

moving average OBV etc all vacuous
will always mean different things

because of ADAPTIVENESS

Yet we can always measure RESPONSE --OUTPUTS

changes in pattern , symmetry & scale

PRICE VOLUME & TIME


motorway

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

I want what he's having.:

brty

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Price Volume & Time

Time suggests that it is LESS SUPPLY

Time here is the number of BARS ( DURATION )
In this rally compared to the last

Same Price Range with Less Volume But also Time.

Ease of Movement ?

rally up
rally down
rally back up BUT QUICKER
lower volume = Less selling pressure

Motorway, I've never thought about comparing it like that before.

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Motorway, I've never thought about comparing it like that before.

With Wyckoff
You are always measuring the output
the response
in terms
of PRICE RANGE ( on a bar or a series of bars --> Waves)
Volume ---Activity --> seen as EFFORT

and TIME as DURATION

Very revealing very important is TIME

These three qualify and define

Time --> Does a rally lasts longer or shorter

Ok next down move in response

say it is half as long in terms of time
and retraces only quarter of the range back

Bullish

think of different combinations of Time ( as duration )

Say retraces all the way back but takes three times as long ?
And a three day rally then recovers all the ground ?

Very Bullish etc

But Adaptive means
just when you have it worked out it changes
So always what is the response. what is the response

I want what he's having.

brty

example-->

You try to lose fat by running ( running to burn up the fat )
So Body(MIND ) decides that you will need more fat ( for what it is being asked to do ) So you end up fatigued and Fatter
as the body(MIND) ADAPTS

Reading interesting material
on how alive things are counter intuitive and do not work like machines
Why you have to measure the outputs to know anything.

Markets ADAPT too

motorway

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

the dow seven straight days in a row with a uptrend...making all xao on stochastic view<---(overbought)I know the views of most threads saying trends ur friend,and you should move with the bulls..but im made a lot of money with my gut feeling..my personal opinion the general markets either being xao/dow/ftse 100 will move sideways in a 2-3wk pattern absorbing or the end year finacial reports and by mid-august onwards i feel that the bulls will come out ..i predict the xao will push through 4100 mid august..and assume the xao will trade above 4400 in september..as for the next few days sencario..im putting my cfds from long to shorts...and will see the market pull back a liitle after today..then movesideways..so as of now im shorting heavily for the next days on the xao

That's some detailed gut feeling. [/QUOTE]
Can a gut feeling be written in machine language?

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

Personally I found ivant to be quite a good leading indicator. His analysis normally come good about 2-3 days after his post. Will be exiting my longs over the next few days...



Of course the economy isn't 50% better, but back in March people may have priced things 50% worse than they should have. So today's level might be correct. Who knows?

Haha or a few weeks at times I usually end up being about 200 points off on entry. I had 50 minis short at 3905, and a further 50 at 4000. We were just of 4100 the other night. If this turns to be the turning point in the short term, I am off again. Thanks for the faith lol

 

[gfresh]

Re: XAO Analysis

Weekly log chart of the XAO below is looking rather too sharp compared to recoveries in the last 30 years..

Unless things are going to continue on a v-shaped bounce into a multi-month bullmarket (doubtful!) things are either going to slow down and go nowhere for a while or reverse again. Buying pressure looks to be running thin in general. Can't see much reason to go long from here, doesn't seem to be that many points in it..

 

[makingmoney]

Re: XAO Analysis

lol @ the news on the dow----->not enough info being shared between treasury and tarp...lol(cause they dont want to show tarp how bad it really is...give every investor a warm fuzzy feeling).Just the spin king back @ work sweeping the mess un there gaint carpet.Got 2 love the propaganda king @ work again 2 hide all the bad infomation.

 

[makingmoney]

Re: XAO Analysis

just curious 2 c of any other traders thoughts on the xao & dow on the next few days?I've been very hestitant in trading this week,myself personally i dont want 2 jump aboard on false rallies atm,im hoping 2 c 2-3days of a downtrend 2 get a better perspective of the general market rather than sideway movements.Any thoughts from others traders would be appreciated?

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

just curious 2 c of any other traders thoughts on the xao & dow on the next few days?I've been very hestitant in trading this week,myself personally i dont want 2 jump aboard on false rallies atm,im hoping 2 c 2-3days of a downtrend 2 get a better perspective of the general market rather than sideway movements.Any thoughts from others traders would be appreciated?

Positional short on a few stocks, but long a few others, fairly neutral. Price action on the majors are fairly mixed. I bet lots of bears have been burnt trying to short this rally and pick the top, and there's gonna be bulls that will try Cut and Reverse and look like a hero... And they will fund the next leg up when they get burnt.

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

just curious 2 c of any other traders thoughts on the xao & dow on the next few days?I've been very hestitant in trading this week,myself personally i dont want 2 jump aboard on false rallies atm,im hoping 2 c 2-3days of a downtrend 2 get a better perspective of the general market rather than sideway movements.Any thoughts from others traders would be appreciated?

I take it you have a disliking to full stops, or correct grammar in general. Not sure whether this is a new rally in the makings or not. Nevertheless I wouldn't be waiting for 2-3 days of down action. If you would have done so the last rally, you would have missed a fair chunk of it. I'm trading this as a new rally, if I'm wrong money management will help alleviate the loss.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

I take it you have a disliking to full stops, or correct grammar in general.

OMG, maybe English is their second language.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

OMG, maybe English is their second language.

At least.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

fwiw ....... im still holding short positions on BHP and TLS. neither have hit stops yet ........ TLS i will be switching straight round to a long if it breaks this top

i also hold various longs as pointed out amongst these pages

both trades happy to drop like hot potatoes once they hit the eject button mark...

p.s nice work with NAB skyquake

 

[drsmith]

Re: XAO Analysis

Looking at the TED spread I note it is back to pre-August 2007 levels.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

fwiw ....... im still holding short positions on BHP and TLS. neither have hit stops yet ........ TLS i will be switching straight round to a long if it breaks this top

i also hold various longs as pointed out amongst these pages

both trades happy to drop like hot potatoes once they hit the eject button mark...

p.s nice work with NAB skyquake

Cheers, that cap raising sure helped. Looking for 10%+ falls around here over the nxt week or so as instos unload.

What worries me is that we're so close to resistance on XJO, S&P 500, and FTSE that a brk on any one of them would trigger MOUNTAINS of stops, and probably push through with a false break. THEN everything will tank once all the shorts get flushed out

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

Looking at the TED spread I note it is back to pre-August 2007 levels.

i am very weak with that side of the market. do you see this as a bullish or bearish thing? It is sitting above 0.31. Doesn't that mean that banks are lending to each other?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Boy oh boy the Bears are lucky that NAB is spoiling the run. The rest of Asia is up about 3% this week. Maybe some fire works come close

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

What worries me is that we're so close to resistance on XJO, S&P 500, and FTSE that a brk on any one of them would trigger MOUNTAINS of stops, and probably push through with a false break. THEN everything will tank once all the shorts get flushed out

That's what I see also.

BS rounding top looking likely!

Would also coincide with a break down below the recent couple pivot lows on the US dollar index, again, the pattern there is looking very weak (on the flip side, the Euro is looking mightily ready to pop it's top too).

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

We will definitely know by end of this week which scenario will play out I'm in the top is in over the next few months camp, but that is not to say i am right. Out of interest who is expecting this to break and the S&P to move towards 1000?