XAO Technical Analysis

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

We will definitely know by end of this week which scenario will play out I'm in the top is in over the next few months camp, but that is not to say i am right. Out of interest who is expecting this to break and the S&P to move towards 1000?

Why? Why can't it just chop around and back fill a little like markets spend 99% of the time doing?

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

Why? Why can't it just chop around and back fill a little like markets spend 99% of the time doing?

Lol 99% of the time during normal markets. Not sure about it doing that 99% of the time since July 07 . Obviously it can chop around, however I find that highly unlikely. Traders are still edgy about the direction, and you need to have a bull market scenario for this to chop around. Although if your definition of chop is something like the second derivative that we all talk about, and you see 300-400 point moves as normal (which seems to be the case these days) then obviously we are talking about the same thing from different angles

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

out of all the ASX, US and London Stocks I track I'm only geting short signals for what its worth...

personally their will be another down leg atleast before this is over. Also the correlation between the US stock market and US currency I can see being broken in the near future (ie stockmarket down but USD down aswell)

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

The weekly % movements have been nothing extraordinary for the last 4 months - EXCEPT last week and the breakout weeks in March. And the stats weigh towards consolidation after those strong weeks yet everyone calls for pullbacks because it overbought!! Its seems that again people think indicators work but don't know how they have actually acted in the past.


Markets push and pull to various 50% levels. Its a good bet when people start calling for a pull back we get 50% of what people expect. :

Just look at the poor soles in the gold thread, always getting 50% pushes and pullbacks yet they still wait. :

(thou no doult I will wake to a god almighty crash tomorrow)

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Obviously it can chop around, however I find that highly unlikely. Traders are still edgy about the direction, and you need to have a bull market scenario for this to chop around.

I would have thought "traders being edgy about the direction" is why it would chop around, not a "bull market scenario"

FWIW i'm sticking with the trend and i think we are going to grind higher.

Time will tell....

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

out of all the ASX, US and London Stocks I track I'm only geting short signals for what its worth...

personally their will be another down leg atleast before this is over. Also the correlation between the US stock market and US currency I can see being broken in the near future (ie stockmarket down but USD down aswell)

Out of interest, what do you get signals based on? S/R levels, overbought/sold conditions, or some other form? Stocks seem to be around upper parts of their channels that i look at, as well as some overbought conditions. would be interesting to see how other people see it at the moment.

The weekly % movements have been nothing extraordinary for the last 4 months - EXCEPT last week and the breakout weeks in March. And the stats weigh towards consolidation after those strong weeks yet everyone calls for pullbacks because it overbought!! Its seems that again people think indicators work but don't know how they have actually acted in the past.


Markets push and pull to various 50% levels. Its a good bet when people start calling for a pull back we get 50% of what people expect. :

Just look at the poor soles in the gold thread, always getting 50% pushes and pullbacks yet they still wait. :

(thou no doult I will wake to a god almighty crash tomorrow)

I think you are on the money there about how people use their indicators. I use them at crucial points, for example, if a market is heavily overbought at a major resistance level. That usually proves to be a good base for a move in the opposite direction. In terms of weekly moves, they have been odd. I was referring more to the range in which equities are moving. We have had many moves where the week ended close to flat, but the range was very wide, i.e. 5-7%. Actually I should stop being lazy and do a histogram of the weekly ranges tomorrow, if I don't forget.

I would have thought "traders being edgy about the direction" is why it would chop around, not a "bull market scenario"

FWIW i'm sticking with the trend and i think we are going to grind higher.

Time will tell....

I have been lacking the ability to clearly express myself over the last week or so lol, sorry . I don't think we are in a bull market at all. In fact I still see the 40% move as a bear market rally. I think my side of the fence is having less and less followers, and if the dreaded October/November doesn't play out, then most of us will be flooding the bull market side. I think markets chop around so much for three reasons: a) uncertainty, as you suggested, b) increased amount of technical traders with very different views about the same scenarios, c) increased amount of bots being ran by traders and institutions. I don't know if i have added something that doesn't have an impact, nor do I know if I have left anything out. On a side note, don't you think we could see a spike if we break the range?

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

Speaking of the devil, we have broken 960...

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

looks like another set of auto stops gunna get popped b4 i wake in the morning again ........


oh well .. ya get that

intresting stuff

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Speaking of the devil, we have broken 960...

Make that 970 & 9000.

Can it hold onto the gains though?

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

I have been lacking the ability to clearly express myself over the last week or so lol, sorry . I don't think we are in a bull market at all. In fact I still see the 40% move as a bear market rally. I think my side of the fence is having less and less followers, and if the dreaded October/November doesn't play out, then most of us will be flooding the bull market side. I think markets chop around so much for three reasons: a) uncertainty, as you suggested, b) increased amount of technical traders with very different views about the same scenarios, c) increased amount of bots being ran by traders and institutions. I don't know if i have added something that doesn't have an impact, nor do I know if I have left anything out. On a side note, don't you think we could see a spike if we break the range?

It's not always easy to get accross what you mean in writing and things can also be taken the wrong way.

lol, it's a bit hard for me to answer your question about the spike now, as it has already spiked

I'm not really big on predictions as i just follow trends but my guess, as i posted elsewhere before when the S&P was up by about 2 points, is that i think we will grind higher and to be honest i now think we are in a new bull market and it will be a V.

Of course i am realistic enough to know not only may i be wrong but we are likely to have some testing times along the way.

As always time will tell.

Edit: Woah up 19.00 on the S&P, noice!!!!!

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some patterns, just for interests sake. I'm probably neutral atm with a slight bullish bias. Needs to break 4100 with some conviction to make me bullish till around 4300-4600, prices back under 3900 could mean more sideways action, under 3700 and I'm bearish.

Daily chart 1st & Weekly chart 2nd.

All looking good atm - especially on the weekly chart.

I'm a bit surprised more EWers haven't been looking for a 3 wave countertrend before going lower on the weekly chart - or maybe they have I haven't noticed.

I still favouring the long term pattern I posted earlier.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

That's what I see also.

BS rounding top looking likely!

There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........

Hmm, I hope you are right What is a BS rounding top pattern. I only know one popular meaning of BS and thats bullsh*t

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's not always easy to get accross what you mean in writing and things can also be taken the wrong way.

lol, it's a bit hard for me to answer your question about the spike now, as it has already spiked

I'm not really big on predictions as i just follow trends but my guess, as i posted elsewhere before when the S&P was up by about 2 points, is that i think we will grind higher and to be honest i now think we are in a new bull market and it will be a V.

Of course i am realistic enough to know not only may i be wrong but we are likely to have some testing times along the way.

As always time will tell.

Edit: Woah up 19.00 on the S&P, noice!!!!!

Haha, I guess my question is a little difficult to answer as it started spiking as I was posting this . You are correct, it is often difficult to get meaning exactly, especially if the person typing has grammar issues as we have seen on this post haha. Regardless of whether spx goes to a 1000 or not, I think it still may be a little early to call a V shaped recovery. But you are right on the money there, only time will tell

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think you are on the money there about how people use their indicators. I use them at crucial points, for example, if a market is heavily overbought at a major resistance level. That usually proves to be a good base for a move in the opposite direction.

Really? My investigations have shown that after such overbought condition the bears have no edge. In fact for the short term overbought is usually followed by more momentum. Like I ranted about on Monday,

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2009/07/good-time-to-be-bearish.html

In terms of weekly moves, they have been odd. I was referring more to the range in which equities are moving. We have had many moves where the week ended close to flat, but the range was very wide, i.e. 5-7%. Actually I should stop being lazy and do a histogram of the weekly ranges tomorrow, if I don't forget.

We have only had a over 5% -7% 4 times since April. The average weekly range since then is 4.10%. That's not odd. As for the large range and finishing flat since the March lows we have only had 3 week, out of 19, were the open and close is within 1%of each other. all the others correlate reasonably well with the High/Low range.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........

Haha indeed! S&P500 now 10pts off its highs after ur post. Hope u shorted it

Hmm, I hope you are right What is a BS rounding top pattern. I only know one popular meaning of BS and thats bullsh*t

Yup, the bullsh*t rounding top. They're supposed to be topping patterns, beauty is they're very easy to get into giving punters plenty of time to get short, before a squeeze to new highs kills all the bears.
Works really well on the SPI and HSI intraday charts, however I have never really looked at one on the daily... Will have to do some work on that today.

Whats really interesting is on the S&P500, We have a daily BS rounding top (had a late squeeze) and also on the 1hr charts (with the bust through 960).

Similar on the SPI (see charts).

I'd be expecting the bears to capitulate today. As all reasons to short are dead and buried. And in motorway's words, market participant's opinions are reaching consensus which is where the turning points are.

Cheers

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

Really? My investigations have shown that after such overbought condition the bears have no edge. In fact for the short term overbought is usually followed by more momentum. Like I ranted about on Monday,

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2009/07/good-time-to-be-bearish.html





We have only had a over 5% -7% 4 times since April. The average weekly range since then is 4.10%. That's not odd. As for the large range and finishing flat since the March lows we have only had 3 week, out of 19, were the open and close is within 1%of each other. all the others correlate reasonably well with the High/Low range.

Lol well obviously I was wrong about the weekly volatility. Although it is rather logical, because we have had a pretty steady move in the one direction. And then May was dead. June was also quiet. In terms of overbought/oversold, RSI shows a lot of signals, a lot more than Chande's, which is why I use Chande's. Also I have a look at the daily and Weekly MACD,and try not to go short during an overbought condition when the market is in a clear uptrend (i lost many teeth in the punchup during this attempt). So it all depends how you use it I guess. I've also found that overbought/sold conditions don't work too well on the US indices, while do rather well at ours. Sometimes our index comes up as overbought 100-150 points before a resistance level, which obviously doesn't do too well, as you usually end up a good 100-150 points in the red before you even started.

Haha indeed! S&P500 now 10pts off its highs after ur post. Hope u shorted it



Yup, the bullsh*t rounding top. They're supposed to be topping patterns, beauty is they're very easy to get into giving punters plenty of time to get short, before a squeeze to new highs kills all the bears.
Works really well on the SPI and HSI intraday charts, however I have never really looked at one on the daily... Will have to do some work on that today.

Whats really interesting is on the S&P500, We have a daily BS rounding top (had a late squeeze) and also on the 1hr charts (with the bust through 960).

Similar on the SPI (see charts).

I'd be expecting the bears to capitulate today. As all reasons to short are dead and buried. And in motorway's words, market participant's opinions are reaching consensus which is where the turning points are.

Cheers

Wow that's brilliant. Let's see what happens tonight. What is your prediction? I am assuming it needs to break the 960 today? If it closes below say 958 do you think this will take a bear move into mid-late august? Or should we be waiting for a retest of the high?

 

[CamKawa]

Re: XAO Analysis

As I posted as few pages ago, this rally has falling volume.



However AMP sees the exact opposite...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Australian Stocks to Beat Bonds as Bull Market Begins

Stocks have rallied this year amid rising volume and increases in the number of shares gaining, known as breadth, said Nader Naeimi, who helps manage the group’s diversified funds in Sydney. AMP Capital is a unit of Australia’s biggest provider of pension plans.

“We’re seeing a classic reversal pattern where a downtrend is starting to give way to an uptrend,” said Naeimi, adding such cycles typically lasted two to three years. “The latest rallies have strong breadth and volume, while the dips increasingly lack conviction. We’ll still have pullbacks but the broader trend from here will be upwards.”

and AMP goes on to say

“A cyclical bull market is being born which could easily see the market approach its 2007 highs,” said Naeimi, who said in a Bloomberg TV interview in April that the bear market in global stocks had ended. “Any weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity.”
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is this the birth of a new bull market or is AMP just full of bull? If I only had $95 bill.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

lol, can't half tell we learnt to trade next to eachother Quake!

Think you covered it all, by I would add the underlying psychology is simply that momentum is slowing and price looks ready to rollover on itself. However, as quite a few do have time to position short, 'they' push it higher to get better fills themselves on the short side before taking it down.

I am a bit concerned however, as I would like to see higher volume on the spike (but the fact that it is summer in Europe/US has me worried).

As far as consensus, that is very true, I believe Credit Suisse was pretty much the last bank to upgrade it's view on the market to a bullish stance.

Ultimately though, I didn't get short. On this odd occassion, I am actually waiting for confirmation as there is a really odd lack of selling pressure (no effort even required to push it through the previous resistance high). I.e. when price was flirting with the high for those 48 odd hours, I was almost certain we would break through, as no selling pressure was coming online INFRONT of the level. From my experience on order flow, when this happens, most of the time, the break up through is a high probability play.

The fact that I got farked on oil being squeezed down and chopped around for 12 minutes after the US smashed the high on what was clearly not a false break, leaves a bitter taste in my mouth!!!!!!

BTW, is ASF slow as sh*t these days or is it just my comp?

 

[ivant]

Re: XAO Analysis

lol, can't half tell we learnt to trade next to eachother Quake!

Think you covered it all, by I would add the underlying psychology is simply that momentum is slowing and price looks ready to rollover on itself. However, as quite a few do have time to position short, 'they' push it higher to get better fills themselves on the short side before taking it down.

I am a bit concerned however, as I would like to see higher volume on the spike (but the fact that it is summer in Europe/US has me worried).

As far as consensus, that is very true, I believe Credit Suisse was pretty much the last bank to upgrade it's view on the market to a bullish stance.

Ultimately though, I didn't get short. On this odd occassion, I am actually waiting for confirmation as there is a really odd lack of selling pressure (no effort even required to push it through the previous resistance high). I.e. when price was flirting with the high for those 48 odd hours, I was almost certain we would break through, as no selling pressure was coming online INFRONT of the level. From my experience on order flow, when this happens, most of the time, the break up through is a high probability play.

The fact that I got farked on oil being squeezed down and chopped around for 12 minutes after the US smashed the high on what was clearly not a false break, leaves a bitter taste in my mouth!!!!!!

BTW, is ASF slow as sh*t these days or is it just my comp?

As you know i am heavily short atm, but i am a little worried about the lack of selling pressure at these highs. Rarely do I get worried about my positions. About 3 times in my life. To be honest, this is not a normal situation. We are having platypus scenarios all the time, which is making this scenario very difficult to deal with, much like all the others over the last few months. Irregular is the normal it seems. Eg, crude oil's illogical moves. Up down then up again, then down and up, and constantly overshooting the logical levels. Or maybe I just need a break and go to the bahamas or cayman islands and rest for a few months. lol.