Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

Jump to new
Re: XAO Analysis

GreatPig said:
That depends on the odds.

True gambling would best be simulated by totally random trades, and over the long term, the odds are in your favour (for long-only trades) as the market has trended up over such time frames.

Some time ago I (and others) did some backtests using completely random trades and the return was not surprisingly in line with the trend over the same time. However, survivorship bias needs to be considered, so the return would likely be somewhat lower than indicated by a backtest (this could be seen by comparing backtests over the all-ords and over the ASX200).

Similar to investing in an index fund I suppose.

GP
Click to expand...

GP If I read your comments right your random trades were in only one direction or in the direction of the trend or that your testing resulted from random trades that were placed in the same direction of the prevailing trend. (wish I was more succinct):)

As apposed to bottom picking which is against the prevailing trend.

Are there results for random trades counter trend?

My own win loss over the long term is generally no better than 50/50 but if I try to trade counter trend then I just don't get the home runs to pay for the losses.

I know there are plenty of counter trend strategies but I am just not that smart and stick with the simple

Hoping I make sense
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
If I read your comments right your random trades were in only one direction or in the direction of the trend
Click to expand...
The random trades were all over the period being tested, but the overall trend during that period was up. If the test period covered a time when the overall trend was down, then I'd expect the results to be in line with that trend (ie. negative).

Are there results for random trades counter trend?
Click to expand...
While that could be done (with backtesting), I don't really see the point. As stated above, I'd expect results to be in line with the trend on average, so random counter-trend trading should always results in losses (on average).

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well, I've just taken up a very small position today (ANZ); so far in the green ... not sure if I'll hold overnight though - might sell off closer into the closing bell. Bought in at $13, looks like a recovery is happening; and I really expect us to finish well off into the green. I missed the boat (was at the doctors!) when I saw the recovery had already begun a little while ago though

BHP looking good as well. ... just got a little at 21.250


Might sell very quick though, could fall all the way back :p:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cbacamden said:
What are the chances you recon, for a small bounce tomorrow ?
Click to expand...

I can tell you the chances of a small bounce tomorrow is nil. Nothing, nada. In fact, I could bet my house on it.

I'll be more specific. I don't think any shares will trade tomorrow at all, and all shares will remain stable

It's Saturaday tomorrow ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
I can tell you the chances of a small bounce tomorrow is nil. Nothing, nada. In fact, I could bet my house on it.

I'll be more specific. I don't think any shares will trade tomorrow at all, and all shares will remain stable

It's Saturaday tomorrow ;)
Click to expand...

Haha. I am cautiously optimistic for one on MONDAY
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Mr Capital said:
Haha. I am cautiously optimistic for one on MONDAY
Click to expand...

I think you'll find this dead cat bounce is purely a response to the main banks lowering interest rates by 100 basis points.

Come Monday, everyone will wake up and reality will bite once more. Also, better hope the US doen't tank again tonight or this ASX "mini-bounce" will just turn into another "Semi-perma Bull sucker rally".

I'd seriously look at selling into the post-trade auction rather than hold in the gambling hope the US is going to follow our lead! Why should they?



aj
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:
I think you'll find this dead cat bounce is purely a response to the main banks lowering interest rates by 100 basis points.

Come Monday, everyone will wake up and reality will bite once more. Also, better hope the US doen't tank again tonight or this ASX "mini-bounce" will just turn into another "Semi-perma Bull sucker rally".

I'd seriously look at selling into the post-trade auction rather than hold in the gambling hope the US is going to follow our lead! Why should they?



aj
Click to expand...

Looks good to me.

This was at about the area a bounce should have been expected.

I was going to post tonight why I didn't think it was worth shorting anything because all of the heavy hitters on the index have passed their downside targets. So there was nothing left to go for at this stage on the short.

But geez... not able to get to a computer for a few hours, and something happens. :rolleyes: What happened?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well, I have decided to leave my rather minuscule position (with a rather lovely paper gain) in play over the weekend. Simply because I believe the losses the US are facing are unsustainable over the immediate term. The fact that the Asian markets have recovered quite convincingly might just be enough to flutter a minor rally.

... or, the rest of Asia will start going downhill from here, the US will ignore any positives - and will plummet another 6% :eek: Wiping out my ill-gotten greedy gains and most definitely then-some :D Either way, my position is small enough to the point where I'm good with it, and I have set myself some stops. I'm more so studying myself, and my own thoughts and feelings at the moment; than any external factors ... you know, like why I didn't just lock-in a 4% gain :cautious:

I do plan to exit before it begins to plummit again, though.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

he he - yes, your right about no lift tomorrow :) being Saturday

Went long with small amount in warrents about 2pm today. Im up so far but will be looking to close out very quickly if it opens down monday morning.

Hoping this is the start of a 10 - 15% short term recovery

On the other side, if/when GM and/or Citbank go under the market could easily go down 10 - 15% more

Its still a gamble at this stage, so keeping my positions very small
 
Re: XAO Analysis

he he - yes, your right about no lift tomorrow :) being Saturday

Went long with small amount in warrents about 2pm today. Im up so far but will be looking to close out very quickly if it opens down monday morning.

Hoping this is the start of a 10 - 15% short term recovery

On the other side, if/when GM and/or Citbank go under the market could easily go down 10 - 15% more

Its still a gamble at this stage, so keeping my positions very small
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ah I am quite beginning to like my Friday night 7pm-7am shift.

Allows me to get paid watching the European and US markets from open to close!

Rally in the European markets currently underway with some heavy upward momentum!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Even if technical analyisis says this is the bottom, fundamentally, any company which loses 70+% of their value couldn't be worth investing in in my opinion at least.

So let's assume this is the bottom, the companies that did well in the previous bull market probably won't do so well in the next. I would assume they'll either stagnate or dissapear. ie, all the speculative miners etc.

I personally would bet this is a bottom, but wouldn't instantly put my life savings in the likes of bhp, rio, fmg, mqg, bnb etc. I think there will be a new round of booming companies people will get excited about in the future, but none of them will be mining/investment banks. Just as in the dotcom bubble, nobody is very excited about them anymore.

The reason I think this bottom will take a long time is that people will continue to get excited about the likes of bhp, then sell off etc until the whole mining boom is forgotten.

I wonder what will be the next big excitement, until then, I'm out!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just posting a devils-advocate response and not wanting to spoil everyones joy and very happy for everyone who gained today..!

And I am probably bias because I missed out because I was working and couldn't join in, but it didn't seem like capitulation to me. More people jumping in at the magic 3200 mark as the "bottom". Although, I could imagine, if Monday did go down worse... then, we may have it as everyone is crushed.

All seemed a little too easy.
 
Top