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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

GreatPig said:
...If you look back far enough in history, meaning over a few thousand years, I believe there have been numerous instances of credit bubbles leading to economic collapse in various societies.
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You meaning the Egyptian, Roman, Asian and Amazonian empires? that were very so wealthy then all of a sudden just disappeared?

I wonder if if this is the prelude to the collapse of the modern man.... won't it be funny, say in the year 3010, they dig up the ruins of the NY Stock exchange?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The Incas had plenty of forms of currency. Cacao beans are an important one I can think of off the top of my head, oh and you know...gold and silver...

Atahualpa offered the Spaniards enough gold to fill the room he was imprisoned in, and twice that amount in silver, in order to be freed. The Incas fulfilled this ransom, but Pizarro refused to release the Inca. During Atahualpa's imprisonment Huascar was assassinated. The Spanish maintained it was at Atahualpa's orders, and this was one of the charges used against Atahualpa when the Spanish finally decided to put him to death, in August 1533.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inca
 
Re: XAO Analysis

GreatPig said:
I agree, but I wouldn't say there's no precedent for it. If you look back far enough in history, meaning over a few thousand years, I believe there have been numerous instances of credit bubbles leading to economic collapse in various societies.

Different details of course, with different financial structures, but same big picture.

GP
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Hi GP,

I was thinking that this could be more likened to the great depression.

I was not much older then 6 in the 87 crash but from what I gather it did not have a major impact on the average Joe. This is having a affect just like the depression did.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sinner said:
The Incas had plenty of forms of currency. Cacao beans are an important one I can think of off the top of my head, oh and you know...gold and silver...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inca
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oh yes, those were the days! get your living heart torn out atop one of those quaint Inca pyramids or let the Spaniards burn you at the stake in the name of one religion or another. great public spectacle either way. what do they give us nowadays? with luck, a bunch of sneaky suicide bombers. no entertainment value there at all.

but to get back to technicalities: an important lesson I've learnt in my travels, when you sell by way of profit-taking its a good idea not to reinvest straight away. keep the money in your pocket for a day or two, until you see which way the wind is blowing.

profit-taking in this case, most likely would only apply to shorts. but the rule applies generally just as well. for instance this market could continue on down, or else it'll turn on a dime because long overdue. making the wrong decision now could prove very costly.

the question, is the rubber band fully extended? if so, it could bounce back hard. not saying it will, but the risk is about 50/50.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The following is an extract from a new feed I receive...

All sectors down. ... The ASX 200 has dropped over 50% from its high and has dropped through the key 3490 technical support level – next support at 3163 points. If the market keeps falling at the current rate, it will hit zero in 22 days.

A sense of humour helps!

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sounds like a lot of fear in the air at the moment...Buffet - "be greedy when others are fearful"


Thought these charts would be better at home in this thread -
Any technical traders care to comment on the charts?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Justthinkin said:
The following is an extract from a new feed I receive...

All sectors down. ... The ASX 200 has dropped over 50% from its high and has dropped through the key 3490 technical support level – next support at 3163 points. If the market keeps falling at the current rate, it will hit zero in 22 days.

A sense of humour helps!

Cheers
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Yeah, but those guys obviously don't read their stars... that 'Morning Star' is still in tact on the Dow which seems to be showing the way, mostly. ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Snakey said:
Sounds like a lot of fear in the air at the moment...Buffet - "be greedy when others are fearful"


Thought these charts would be better at home in this thread -
Any technical traders care to comment on the charts?
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those pics bear quite a scary resemblance.

i guess it all depends on if you take a 12 year view or different.

the graph wouldnt help you if you started investing last year.

but well spotted.

the only bottom ive seen lately is - AFG until then......there always room to go lower... unfortunately
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sinner said:
On the uncharted territory claim:

Nov 17 The Stock Market is Not in "Uncharted Territory" PF - John Mauldin

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11861.htm

Take from it what you will.
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Really worthwhile article

Thanks

motorway

A significant break of the October lows could prompt "weak" holders to abandon stocks, which would create a need for a sufficient discount for "strong" holders (mainly value-conscious investors) to purchase those shares. Again, my impression is that in the event of a clear break of October's lows, 780 on the S&P 500 would most probably be where value-conscious investors would exhibit very strong demand.

As a side note, do your best to filter out comments like "investors are moving out of stocks and into ..." or "investors are selling into this decline" or "investors are buying into this rally." On balance, investors do not sell shares, and they don't buy shares. Every share purchased is a share sold. The only question is what price movement is required to prompt a buyer and a seller to trade with each other. No money will come off the sidelines into stocks. No money will come out of stocks and onto the sidelines.

All such talk is non-equilibrium idiocy. Keep in mind that the "market" consists of different traders with a variety of time-horizons, risk-tolerances, and analytical methods (e.g. technical, report-driven, value-conscious). It is helpful to think in terms of which group of individuals is likely to do what, and when. It is equally important to know which group of investors you belong to. As the old saying goes, if you're at a poker table and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.
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Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
eeeeeek!!! :eek:

nasty surprise this morning!! what happened overnight??!!!

is this a capitulation anyone??
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Yeh, after that quick down move just before cash open today, which saw NO bids, I thought we were really in for a capitulation day! Loaded up and went short after the quick squeeze, only to see over 600 contracts come into the futs in a minute and it bounce right on cash open!!!! Wouldn't be surprised to see a little bounce here in OZ!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Yeah, but those guys obviously don't read their stars... that 'Morning Star' is still in tact on the Dow which seems to be showing the way, mostly. ;)
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"The market broke though key technical support today. More importantly

-- Prices continually pushed lower, first to 83, then 82.60 then 82.

-- Volume increased as prices moved lower.

In other words, the consolidation is over."
http://www.bonddad.blogspot.com/
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Wouldn't be surprised to see a little bounce here in OZ!
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well... if it doesnt bounce quickly... its not going to bounce much at all....

i loaded up on a long on the open and was smartly taken out... lol.. that'll teach me... was expecting that dead cat bounce...

i get the feeling that some huge institutional sell order is dogging our market... the downward pressure has been immense..... someone is desperate to get out and is selling at whatever price they can get...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

amory said:
the question, is the rubber band fully extended? if so, it could bounce back hard. not saying it will, but the risk is about 50/50.
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When the carnage ends; it doesn't necessarily have to end in a mighty up rise. Many (myself included) stipulate that the market will merely trail sideways at the end of this ... perhaps for many months, or even years. By the time this is over, average-joe investors will be so fearful of the markets; that they'll swear off of them for years. Credit will be scarcely available, and few will want leveraged positions - so, there really will be nothing to fuel a mighty rise.

So long as I see comments like this, I will not be buying. People still have hope for a bounce, folk are still talking about stocks being oversold, etc ... I want to see people giving up :)

Remember, there's always a chance the rubber band will snap :p:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Im currently in each way with index warrents, with more weighted short than long.

Are we going to 3000 - I have no idea, but i hope so. I have to start making some of my losses back
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm banking on 3000. The bull started at 3000 and should end there. It is a shame that the whole bull was given up
 
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