IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
With the way index warrants are priced. I seriously doubt you will.
They are so seriously overpriced its not funny.
With the way index warrants are priced. I seriously doubt you will.
They are so seriously overpriced its not funny.
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Re: XAO Analysis
A good common sense comment! People have been jumping back into the market too quickly in the past many months fearful they will miss out on the next bull run. It ain't happening.
Bears love eating fat. There was so much fat and hot air built into the market, there's still some left to feast on.
When the carnage ends; it doesn't necessarily have to end in a mighty up rise. Many (myself included) stipulate that the market will merely trail sideways at the end of this ... perhaps for many months, or even years. By the time this is over, average-joe investors will be so fearful of the markets; that they'll swear off of them for years. Credit will be scarcely available, and few will want leveraged positions - so, there really will be nothing to fuel a mighty rise.
So long as I see comments like this, I will not be buying. People still have hope for a bounce, folk are still talking about stocks being oversold, etc ... I want to see people giving up
Remember, there's always a chance the rubber band will snap:
A good common sense comment! People have been jumping back into the market too quickly in the past many months fearful they will miss out on the next bull run. It ain't happening.
Bears love eating fat. There was so much fat and hot air built into the market, there's still some left to feast on.
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Re: XAO Analysis
data out in the US tonight:Jobless Claims (wk11/15 , 2008) Nov 20 Leading Indicators (Oct , 2008) Nov 20 Philadelphia Fed Survey (Nov , 2008) Nov 20 EIA Natural Gas Report (wk11/14 , 2008) Nov 20 Money Supply (wk11/10 , 2008)
data out in the US tonight:Jobless Claims (wk11/15 , 2008) Nov 20 Leading Indicators (Oct , 2008) Nov 20 Philadelphia Fed Survey (Nov , 2008) Nov 20 EIA Natural Gas Report (wk11/14 , 2008) Nov 20 Money Supply (wk11/10 , 2008)
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Re: XAO Analysis
The non-linear scale used strikes me as the correct one to use but would obviously show a different result in where your lines intersect the index graph.
With regard to trying to pick possible trends/turning points on charts, why do some use a linear index scale (such as yours) and others use a non-linear index scale (chart two posts above).
The non-linear scale used strikes me as the correct one to use but would obviously show a different result in where your lines intersect the index graph.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Non-linear (or semi log) is better to draw trendlines with; and more representative of the real trend. A 60tick move when the index was 6000 is different to a 60 tick move now.
Non-linear (or semi log) is better to draw trendlines with; and more representative of the real trend. A 60tick move when the index was 6000 is different to a 60 tick move now.
Re: XAO Analysis
Another day, another low achieved on DOW & S&P. Seem to be the trend here.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI,INDEXSP:.INX,INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC
Yesterday "bargain hunters" will be hurt today. But I have a hunch that we might see a short term bottom today on XAO.
Maybe 3100-3200. Capitulation anyone
Another day, another low achieved on DOW & S&P. Seem to be the trend here.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI,INDEXSP:.INX,INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC
Yesterday "bargain hunters" will be hurt today. But I have a hunch that we might see a short term bottom today on XAO.
Maybe 3100-3200. Capitulation anyone
GreatPig
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Re: XAO Analysis
A repeat of the very long term chart I posted a number of pages back. Click on the attachment for a larger image. The black line is a linear regression line, while the blue line is one I added as an approximate trend base. The red line is a base trend line post '87.
Log scale is more accurate over larger price moves as it indicates percentage changes rather than absolute changes.
GP
A repeat of the very long term chart I posted a number of pages back. Click on the attachment for a larger image. The black line is a linear regression line, while the blue line is one I added as an approximate trend base. The red line is a base trend line post '87.
Log scale is more accurate over larger price moves as it indicates percentage changes rather than absolute changes.
GP
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Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
30 October:
I hope stoner got rid of those longs, been all downhill since.
And the 10 Oct major bottom actually wasn't.
I suppose he was just a beginner at EW. An amateur you might say.
Or, maybe it was just a disprove .....
30 October:
I hope stoner got rid of those longs, been all downhill since.
And the 10 Oct major bottom actually wasn't.
I suppose he was just a beginner at EW. An amateur you might say.
Or, maybe it was just a disprove .....
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Re: XAO Analysis
omfg.... what's going on out there?
am i in an alternative universe or what?
every morning i wake to check the overnight index... i find myself speechless...
so.... 3200 has been broken... where to now???
omfg.... what's going on out there?
am i in an alternative universe or what?
every morning i wake to check the overnight index... i find myself speechless...
so.... 3200 has been broken... where to now???
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Re: XAO Analysis
Someone made an earlier comment that second guessing this market was at best, difficult. In my mind it is irrelevant to which camp you belong... technical or fundamental. But I must express my admiration for those who diligently practice their craft picking the bottom ... a real show of courage.
For those who have any equity left and are sitting on the side, maybe they'd like to comment on the sub 3000 hypothesis.
It's Friday, the DJIA finished on a sour note, US car makers are begging for mercy and were embarrased by a smug congressman, the punters suggesting that its time the tall poppies fell on their own swords...hmmm
Someone made an earlier comment that second guessing this market was at best, difficult. In my mind it is irrelevant to which camp you belong... technical or fundamental. But I must express my admiration for those who diligently practice their craft picking the bottom ... a real show of courage.
For those who have any equity left and are sitting on the side, maybe they'd like to comment on the sub 3000 hypothesis.
It's Friday, the DJIA finished on a sour note, US car makers are begging for mercy and were embarrased by a smug congressman, the punters suggesting that its time the tall poppies fell on their own swords...hmmm
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Re: XAO Analysis
ah ok... maybe not intraday... but overnight....
PS I do realise that this the XJO quote... but since XAO is at a discount to XJO... XAO would be worse off...
ah ok... maybe not intraday... but overnight....
PS I do realise that this the XJO quote... but since XAO is at a discount to XJO... XAO would be worse off...
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Re: XAO Analysis
I have attached a chart of the all ords since the 81 lows. For those interested in Elliot, it has behaved quite well. It is a behaviour of wave 5s to retrace to the bottom, usually slightly under of wave 4's. It is also (apparently) likely that on extended wave 5's there is a tendancy to trade back towards closely to the wave 1 highs. Anyway, just something to be aware of if it gets there.
I have attached a chart of the all ords since the 81 lows. For those interested in Elliot, it has behaved quite well. It is a behaviour of wave 5s to retrace to the bottom, usually slightly under of wave 4's. It is also (apparently) likely that on extended wave 5's there is a tendancy to trade back towards closely to the wave 1 highs. Anyway, just something to be aware of if it gets there.
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IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Re: XAO Analysis
Justthinkin A couple of points to think about
This market is just fine nice steady trends, this is as good as it gets as the moves are nice and big. Second guessing any market is gambling not trading.
Gambling is difficult because you are a net loser
Absolutely spot on if I can just add ideally what ever method you use is good if it keeps you on the right side of the market. Plenty here keep trying to go long in a bear market with a strong down trend.
Would they try to short a bull market in an up trend? Same thing
Cannot say I feel the same way as the craft is gambling with a tough of fear and greed worrying about missing out sure way to lose money again not a serious trading method more so emotional foolishness.
Let me help spin the big wheel and plonk it all on red, same thing
Not meaning to be rude Justthinkin just trying to challenge your thinking
Hope it helps
Justthinkin A couple of points to think about
This market is just fine nice steady trends, this is as good as it gets as the moves are nice and big. Second guessing any market is gambling not trading.
Gambling is difficult because you are a net loser
Absolutely spot on if I can just add ideally what ever method you use is good if it keeps you on the right side of the market. Plenty here keep trying to go long in a bear market with a strong down trend.
Would they try to short a bull market in an up trend? Same thing
Cannot say I feel the same way as the craft is gambling with a tough of fear and greed worrying about missing out sure way to lose money again not a serious trading method more so emotional foolishness.
Let me help spin the big wheel and plonk it all on red, same thing
Not meaning to be rude Justthinkin just trying to challenge your thinking
Hope it helps
GreatPig
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Re: XAO Analysis
True gambling would best be simulated by totally random trades, and over the long term, the odds are in your favour (for long-only trades) as the market has trended up over such time frames.
Some time ago I (and others) did some backtests using completely random trades and the return was not surprisingly in line with the trend over the same time. However, survivorship bias needs to be considered, so the return would likely be somewhat lower than indicated by a backtest (this could be seen by comparing backtests over the all-ords and over the ASX200).
Similar to investing in an index fund I suppose.
GP
That depends on the odds.
True gambling would best be simulated by totally random trades, and over the long term, the odds are in your favour (for long-only trades) as the market has trended up over such time frames.
Some time ago I (and others) did some backtests using completely random trades and the return was not surprisingly in line with the trend over the same time. However, survivorship bias needs to be considered, so the return would likely be somewhat lower than indicated by a backtest (this could be seen by comparing backtests over the all-ords and over the ASX200).
Similar to investing in an index fund I suppose.
GP
Re: XAO Analysis
Yey - Nice Little Profit. My 13 trade loosing streak is broken
Thanks - for all your help guys, being a fundamental man I suck at tech analysis, so its great to have your thoughts.
Im closing all XAO positions and will review again this arvo, may risk it and go long for tomorrow.
What are the chances you recon, for a small bounce tomorrow ?
Yey - Nice Little Profit. My 13 trade loosing streak is broken
Thanks - for all your help guys, being a fundamental man I suck at tech analysis, so its great to have your thoughts.
Im closing all XAO positions and will review again this arvo, may risk it and go long for tomorrow.
What are the chances you recon, for a small bounce tomorrow ?