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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
In todays West Australian.... might support the market for a little whiles yet???


Fund ready to invest, despite market concerns


17th June 2007, 11:00 WST
The $51 billion Future Fund will begin investing by the end of this financial year - only weeks away - regardless of concerns it may be entering at the top of the market.
The investment fund was established by the federal government in 2006 to meet Commonwealth government superannuation liabilities, estimated to hit $148 billion by 2020.
The fund is estimated to be worth more than $51 billion, with $42 billion in contributions from the government, and a little under $10 billion in Telstra shares.
The fund’s general manager Paul Costello said today the fund, which appointed Watson Wyatt head David Neal as its chief investment officer last week, was "on track" to achieve its plan of investing before the end of this financial year.
"We’ve always said that we will begin investing in this financial year, and of course that’s now only a couple of weeks away," Mr Costello told ABC TV.
"So that remains on track ... and that plan will be executed."
But asked if he was concerned the fund might be investing at the top of the market, which in the past few years has witnessed unprecedented gains, Mr Costello said, "I think that’s a concern for all investors".
"We’re absolutely clear that this is not a good time to be investing a large portfolio as a few years ago might have been, so we spend quite a bit of time thinking around that," he said.
"We know that there are many investors who have been punished for standing on the sidelines for too long waiting for corrections to happen which do take some time.
"Equally there have been investors who have been punished for jumping in to markets without being sensitive, so we are trying to run a middle road there."
Mr Costello was again forced to defend the appointment of US-based Northern Trust as the fund’s global custodian.
The appointment of an overseas bank raised concerns among unions and the federal opposition, not least because of its links to the collapse of US energy giant Enron.
"I think there was a great deal of comment made before people perhaps really understood what the role the custodian was, and appreciated that by definition a global custodian must be a global organisation, it must be a global bank,” he said.
"We remain absolutely convinced that this is the right call for us."
But the fact the Future Fund had become such a politically sensitive body would have no impact on the body’s independence, Mr Costello said.
"We value our independence,” he said.
"Government has been very clear with us - they believe the fund will only be successful if it feels free to make decisions that it believes are appropriate for the portfolio.
"The board is of the same view... We will continue to make the decisions that we think are best for the portfolio irrespective of comment that sometimes might flow."
Mr Costello said how the money would be spent would be decided by the government of the day - and was not an issue of concern for the fund.
Labor has promised, if it wins the upcoming election, to use $2.4 billion from the fund to help pay for a national high speed fibre-optic broadband network.
The policy has been condemned by the government as undermining the fund’s intent of meeting superannuation liabilities.
"Our job is to manage the contributions that are given, and government has been clear about what they expect back from that, so really these other issues are not ones that we spend a great deal of energy (on),” Mr Costello said.
AAP
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I'm not sure this is a good thing or bad thing, but the CEO looks like he should be in the know. I wonder if he is a neo-con...

William A. Osborn the CEO of Northern Trust, is also Director of Caterpillar Inc., Nicor Inc., Tribune Company and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

http://www.chicagofed.org/about_the_fed/board_of_directors_osborn_william.cfm
 
Re: XAO Analysis

From "Inside Business" 2 years back...



PETER COSTELLO: I think that there's a lot of lessons that the Australian Government could learn from looking at the New Zealand experience.
Paul Costello runs the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, which began investing 18 months ago. Similar to the Future Fund but much broader, it will help fund the country's universal pension for Kiwi citizens over the age of 65.

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Being a very big fish in a small pond, the NZ Fund has invested most of its money offshore.
PAUL COSTELLO: Because of the size of the fund relative to the local market, we've had to keep our allocation to it quite modest. We allocate just over 7 per cent of our assets to the local equity market and around 10 per cent to the local bond
market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looking at the vertical rally, we should be targeting 6500 by next Monday. In terms of the broader market, it still appears to be a 'wait and see' game as to which way it'll break.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Forgive me if this has been posted before. Where does the 40 odd billion government contribution come from for the future fund?.. 10 billion in TLS, ok, but the rest? Is that a future contribution or dollars sitting in a bank account somewhere?

The Chinese have a 1 trillion + war chest as well which could be extra gunpowder for the market boom, the big ASX resource companies must look very juicy in their eyes I guess, not sure how those sort of things would be judged from a foreign investment stand point, probably fair game I imagine.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A picture says it better than I can..... :cool: ..
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Some interesting pre-open figures showing in one of my watchlists right now...

Option expiry again.

GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

1.36% drop on the S&P500 last night, confirmed a lower high...not looking good.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ah... this looks better :D

(except for BHP of course)

GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
A picture says it better than I can..... :cool: ..
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Yep, thats pretty much it Kauri. Same view I have had for quite a while, we have a definite broadening top formation and even through we had a record close, we actually didn't breach our all time intra day high....

Not a good sign at all..... But lets not get depressed, hopefully the short game will appear!

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

happytrader said:
The June options expiry date is the 28th.
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Well maybe some warrants then.

Cheers,
GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

the past few trading days have had a stellar run. l think that it will dip for sure with some profit taking today. l predict atleast a 40-60 point drop today easy. Then again, just my 2 cents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

DB008 said:
the past few trading days have had a stellar run. l think that it will dip for sure with some profit taking today. l predict atleast a 40-60 point drop today easy. Then again, just my 2 cents
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Well, an easy way to predict it is to have a look at the futures Danny. Down 47, so in your guestimated range. Well done. :) Doesn't mean it will happen of course. We sometimes have news released during the day that effects our market. :rolleyes:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Well, an easy way to predict it is to have a look at the futures Danny. Down 47, so in your guestimated range. Well done. :)
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LOL thats probably what he did, but he made a range so it wouldnt be obvious ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

All good. l was just looking at how the US markets travelled last nite. 150 or so point drop on the dow last night. l'm only a very very beginner. But, l am finding that it's easier to read the indicies and commodities than stocks. Just my opinion.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like the short term run to 6500 stalled and the short term trend might break.

I've been looking for a broadening wedge, but Kauri's take on it looks good too. Here's a shorter timeframe look.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

A little bit bearish? Megaphone top forming on the weekly and hang man on the daily?
Edit - just saw Kauri's post - concur.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Uncle Festivus said:
A little bit bearish? Megaphone top forming on the weekly and hang man on the daily?
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I am with you UF - we failed to make a new high and the SPI is down some 60+ points at present.......

Be prepared for a red couple of days IMO, 6240 now forms support, secondary support at 6100........ Time to start to be conservative and maintain tight stops........

Brian Shannon on Alpha Trends says it best IMO (www.alphatrends.blogspot.com), trading is a defense game - time to start using that defense.....

Cheers
 
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