XAO Technical Analysis

[the bard]

Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like a bullish hammer today boys and girls! Who said something would happen around the 8/8/08? Good call on that one.

 

[the bard]

Re: XAO Analysis

It was Wavepicker, good work!

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

It was Wavepicker, good work!

Hello The Bard.

On my charts I had 8th August. I came about this date by counting 55 Fibonacci traded days forward from the 19 May high. Only problem is, I made a mistake as I counted 58 days forward which is the 8th August!!! The actual forecasted turn date was suppose to be 5th August which makes it BANG on right. FREAKY!!! The price target was 4691 and the market missed it by 130 odd points but it was close enough IMO. All this was forecasted from months earlier.

Also the dead giveway(irrespective of price and time) was the pattern of trend(EW). That wave 4 triangle was enough for me to decide to open a new portfolio of longs on Monday as stated in my earlier post.



PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site. For various reasons I have decided to move on and focus on my trading in greater detail and also to spend more time with family and hobbies.

I have enjoyed posting on this site, made lots of friends and great trading conversation. I apologise to anyone I may have upset whom I did not see eye to eye with. No hard feelings, this is just forum to pass the spare time and not to be taken too seriously. Just entertainment value for me.

I wish all the best ofl success with your trading in the future, Good time to be long ATM IMO.

Take Care

Wavepicker

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello The Bard.

On my charts I had 8th August. I came about this date by counting 55 Fibonacci traded days forward from the 19 May high. Only problem is, I made a mistake as I counted 58 days forward which is the 8th August!!! The actual forecasted turn date was suppose to be 5th August which makes it BANG on right. FREAKY!!! The price target was 4691 and the market missed it by 130 odd points but it was close enough IMO. All this was forecasted from months earlier.

Also the dead giveway(irrespective of price and time) was the pattern of trend(EW). That wave 4 triangle was enough for me to decide to open a new portfolio of longs on Monday as stated in my earlier post.



PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site. For various reasons I have decided to move on and focus on my trading in greater detail and also to spend more time with family and hobbies.

I have enjoyed posting on this site, made lots of friends and great trading conversation. I apologise to anyone I may have upset whom I did not see eye to eye with. No hard feelings, this is just forum to pass the spare time and not to be taken too seriously. Just entertainment value for me.

I wish all the best ofl success with your trading in the future, Good time to be long ATM IMO.

Take Care

Wavepicker

Hi WP, I'm interested in your thoughts on the S&P 500.

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site. For various reasons I have decided to move on and focus on my trading in greater detail and also to spend more time with family and hobbies.

I have enjoyed posting on this site, made lots of friends and great trading conversation. I apologise to anyone I may have upset whom I did not see eye to eye with. No hard feelings, this is just forum to pass the spare time and not to be taken too seriously. Just entertainment value for me.

I wish all the best ofl success with your trading in the future, Good time to be long ATM IMO.

Thanks for posting here wavepicker.
One of the few quality quality contributors to this site.
You will be missed.
All the best to you and your family.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Also the dead giveway(irrespective of price and time) was the pattern of trend(EW). That wave 4 triangle was enough for me to decide to open a new portfolio of longs on Monday as stated in my earlier post.



PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site.

Augh, c'mon WP... you can still have a little peep in here ocassionally... even if only to see what people are saying about you.

[From post 3828 (22nd July)]
Hehehe, I'm desperately restraining myself, rub92me.

I'm fairly confident oil has past it's peak, but the other component of my reserection of the Aus market is the weakening of the AUD against the USD... or more precisely the strengthening of the USD index. That hasn't kicked in yet, and although (according to my new "L" EW count) one target has been met, I'm still a tad cautious of our market going a bit lower to that 4,812.

It just looks like the last few days are, to quote the proper venacular of EW'ers, a bit corrective... ie might be a little widening of the little wave four of that last minor wave iv.

From my post the other day, I'm still cautious of the 'speculator' influence, although it looks like life is being made harder for them, mainly by regulations in the US, I am expecting a substaintal recovery once the consensus begins to emerge that the oil bubble has burst, which I feel should lead to some recovery of the USD index and confidence that the world economy will keep on carrying on.

By george, I think I'm getting the hang of this EW stuff.

Can I claim genius status for calling it correct!

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi WP, I'm interested in your thoughts on the S&P 500.

Hmmm, i guess this won't be forthcoming?

Any other EWavers care to comment on the S&P 500?

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[the bard]

Re: XAO Analysis

See ya wavepicker, have a good one, thanks for the positive feedback re your posts. All the best!!

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

I apologise to anyone I may have upset whom I did not see eye to eye with. No hard feelings, this is just forum to pass the spare time and not to be taken too seriously. Just entertainment value for me.

I wish all the best ofl success with your trading in the future, Good time to be long ATM IMO.

Take Care

Wavepicker

All the best. Enjoy the hobbies and time with the family.

Though we didn't always see eye to eye, it is all entertainment and enjoyed some of your analysis. Come back when you get free time.

Agree on the long ATM.

Good luck.

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site.

Very sorry to here that Wavepicker.

I enjoyed and learnt from your posts a great deal.We don't have many experienced E. Wavers on here, you were probably the most experienced and had an understanding beyond probably all of us.

Good call on the change of trend.

Have fun in your new ventures.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Forums can be (are) very time consuming.
Waves has I'm sure come to that conclusion long ago.
There does come times when we question why the hell we spend so much time doing this when in reality our time can be better spent.

Its an interest which isnt shared by many of our friends---all here would associate with that.
There is no point even discussing this sort of stuff with 99.9% of the world---they just glaze over.(not just E/W--infact most financial discussion).
atleast here we have people with opinions and genuine input AND interest.

So here we are.

Just cut down your time here Waves.
Your opinion and discussion is valued by many here---hope to see it appear from time to time.
Thanks for your time in the past.
Enjoy--that---is what life is all about--we only get one! (Well I think so anyway).

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Forums can be (are) very time consuming.

But, we're all here for a reason.

And, we've all seen people say goodbye forever only to return not long after.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks, Tech, Porper, CanOz, whiskers, and the bard and anybody else I have missed.

Tech, unfortunately I have promised THE COOK and my kids I will spend much less time on the PC in the evenings, so whatever time I do have I really need to spend on actual trading and trading analysis.
I will try to pop in from time to time but if anyone would like to discuss any EW or Cycles related stuff you can reach me here:

passthebuckrapidly@yahoo.com

I hope most went long this week!! I am long to the buggery but not commodities or precious metals stoxx.

8-9 years ago I got burnt in the tech wreck of the nasdaq. I never wanted to ever look at tech stoxx again after that. But for the first time I actually see the Nasdaq leading the US markets and looking at buying tech stocks. Mind you not any old tech stoxx, but mainly those related to clean technology and climate change. Some interesting opportunities IMO.
As for precious metals and commoities, they are out favour and will be asleep for 2-3 years IMO

All the Best

Wavepicker

 

[BentRod]

Re: XAO Analysis

Very disappointed that you will be cutting back your posting Waves.

I don't post much but have probably read every one of your posts.
Plently of other lurkers in the same boat too I'd imagine.

PS. lolz@passthebuckrapidly

 

[Plan B]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker,

I would just like to say that your input has certainly been appreciated in here over the years! (has it really been that long ) And I for one truly appreciated yours and Magdorans words of caution back last year well before all the sh*t hit the fan and I can only say that I truly, truly do hope that you stick your head in here in the future to warn all the plebeians that you think things are getting a little too inordinate and to be careful!

Your words of caution are certainly welcome around here in my books!

Take care :star::star::star:

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

Why do you need fib points to see patterns or give them a scale?

Stock charts are normally shown with the zero suppressed, which makes it hard to visually see the vertical scale. Adding a set of scaling ratios allows the eye to pick out pattern features more easily and judge their significant.

The ratios themselves are relatively unimportant. There is no science behind them, and no way to prove that particular ratios work better than others. The "golden ratio" has been shown to be useful in art, architecture, design and other human endeavours, so it's not surprising it's useful here. However, other ratios would work just as well if people learned to use them.

Obviously if enough people use the same ratios there is the additional advantage that you can predict how the market will observe certain points, but I have no reason to believe institutional investors use them, except when stalking amateurs.

 

[alankew]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker,like a few others on this thread,dont have the knowledge to comment on your charts etc but love reading your posts on this thread.Predictions have been amazing,thanks from us mere mortals and good luck.Al.Actually maybe if we all keep posting our thanks and congrats he(?!!!!!!!!!)will stick around at least answering these posts

 

[macca]

Re: XAO Analysis

HI all,

Yep, I am another keen reader of Wavepickers absorbing posts.

I wonder WP, would you consider posting a monthly chart with a small commentary, just as an overview of the market ?

I am sure we would all appreciate it

All the best and good trades to you

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

FWIW, I see some rising wedge reversals forming again, most notably on the FTSE, although still forming on the DOW as well?

 

[GreatPig]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some bullish RSI divergence showing on the weekly chart now. Seems to be finding support around those old July/Aug 06 levels (ie. these levels - also just above the 50% Fib level).

GP