XAO Technical Analysis

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Too bad for those who mortgaged their grandmothers in late 07 though.

GP

The sad thing is..........I read this was a common occurance! I bet quite a few aren't enjoying these olympics, but hey, at least they still have a sense of national pride!

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, i agree with this. Call it a hunch, but i think we are in for one more low, then it will bounce, but how high i do not know. I reckon it'll bounce back up to the current level of support, then we'll be stuck in a trading range between the 5000 and 5600ish mark, for a while. Until the crisis is officially declared over.

I wish I had a crystal ball that could make predictions like that.

All I know is (repeat after me): this is not the bottom.

The credit crunch has wasted the finance sector. We're headed for a recession (or close to it) and so far we've only seen the downturn in residential and consumer discretionary. It has yet to ripple through the general economy and affect company profits. Forward P/Es are too high.

I'll put in my guess for 4300-4500 and a recovery mid next year, maybe. But it could be far, far worse.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

On the XAO chart, the MACD somewhat divergence to the chart indicates an up, but wouldn't want that support around 4900 to bust.

Similar sort of picture on the mini 200.

If that line breaks, might be a few points in a short there.

Next stop?

 

[explod]

Re: XAO Analysis

On the XAO chart, the MACD somewhat divergence to the chart indicates an up, but wouldn't want that support around 4900 to bust.

Similar sort of picture on the mini 200.

If that line breaks, might be a few points in a short there.

Next stop?

Yep, and on the five year weekly a break of a 100 points here sees the next support around 4,500 and, dare we consider, below 4000 ouch

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yep, and on the five year weekly a break of a 100 points here sees the next support around 4,500 and, dare we consider, below 4000 ouch

I'm thinking 4600 ish as the next stop on this breakdown, if it occurs.

Still looking pretty bearish until this triangle breaks up a bit.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm thinking 4600 ish as the next stop on this breakdown, if it occurs.

Still looking pretty bearish until this triangle breaks up a bit.

thought this def'n worth bearing in mind:
Descending Triangle
A price bar pattern in which the slope of price bar highs and lows are converging to a point so as to outline the pattern in Right Triangle. The hypotenuse in an Descending Triangle should be sloping from higher to lower and left to right. Chartists frequently buy or (go-long) on a break up and out of the Descending Triangle or sell (go-short) on a break down and out of the Ascending Triangle. However, Descending Triangle are generally thought to demonstrate a stronger bias towards predicting a break down and out of the Triangle, particularly when the trend leading to the formation has been down.

join your own dots - thats why you did all those dot patterns at age 4 - practice!

ps - down another 50 today not shown

 

[skyhawk]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello All,

I am new to this website and this is my first post. I have been around the trading game for 16 years and had the misfortune of a major financial setback during the techwreck days. Fortuntely I have been lucky enough to avoid the carnage of the last 10 months.

I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by tech/a and wave picker.

My is as follows.

The current pattern of the market is unclear at present
If we get a move up from here in the next 2-3 sessions ir may confirm a weekly pivot in place
Further downside although quite a possibility, will be limited and probably if it traces out will be a minor false low and the market will shoot back up to the resistance point of the current triangle
I think this is a good time to start looking for long positions and a rally is imminant

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello All,

I am new to this website and this is my first post. I have been around the trading game for 16 years and had the misfortune of a major financial setback during the techwreck days. Fortuntely I have been lucky enough to avoid the carnage of the last 10 months.

I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by tech/a and wave picker.

My is as follows.

The current pattern of the market is unclear at present
If we get a move up from here in the next 2-3 sessions ir may confirm a weekly pivot in place
Further downside although quite a possibility, will be limited and probably if it traces out will be a minor false low and the market will shoot back up to the resistance point of the current triangle
I think this is a good time to start looking for long positions and a rally is imminant

What If........?

The triangle breaks to the downside? Is it more probable given that market is in a downtrend? Where is the next support level? Is this consolidation pattern above or below support or resistance?

What are the overseas markets positioned to do?

Some food for thought.

Cheers,



CanOz

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the ES found some volume last night.

Maybe up for a few days.

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Short covering?

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

What If........?

The triangle breaks to the downside? Is it more probable given that market is in a downtrend? Where is the next support level? Is this consolidation pattern above or below support or resistance?

What are the overseas markets positioned to do?

Some food for thought.

Cheers,

CanOz

Interesting point Cana.

The fact the market hasn't been able to break through the resistance at 5100ish is a worry. A break to the downside would see 4750ish at least you would think. If this were a stock it would be setting up perfectly for a short.

Time for a capitulation low maybe? Would be expecting a capitulation low to touch at least 4600ish. All pure speculation though

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello All,

I am new to this website and this is my first post. My is as follows.

The current pattern of the market is unclear at present

Hi skyhawk... Welcome aboard.

I'm getting a pretty clear picture mate.

Oil bugged, the AUD headed for low 80's for awhile and the POG heading north again and some commodities following suite pretty soon.

Just looking at the XAO, a pretty tight bollinger squeeze coming on.

I think we'll probably be up tomorrow, heading toward 5200'sh before we have a significant down patch again.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello All,

I am new to this website and this is my first post. I have been around the trading game for 16 years and had the misfortune of a major financial setback during the techwreck days. Fortuntely I have been lucky enough to avoid the carnage of the last 10 months.

I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by tech/a and wave picker.

My is as follows.

The current pattern of the market is unclear at present
If we get a move up from here in the next 2-3 sessions ir may confirm a weekly pivot in place
Further downside although quite a possibility, will be limited and probably if it traces out will be a minor false low and the market will shoot back up to the resistance point of the current triangle
I think this is a good time to start looking for long positions and a rally is imminant

Hi skyhawk, yes there's some good contributors here. Perhaps you could post up some charts to support your positions above, sounds pretty random to me. Cheers, kennas

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

It may be premature to call a halt to this retracement.

A yearly chart of the XAO back to the lows of 1981 to the present shows that 4400 or 3650 is a more realistic target.

This is calculated on fibonnaci retracement from the 2007 highs, to the 38% and 50% levels. This would get it back into the long term trend as shown by the fibonnaci fan.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

It may be premature to call a halt to this retracement.

A yearly chart of the XAO back to the lows of 1981 to the present shows that 4400 or 3650 is a more realistic target.

This is calculated on fibonnaci retracement from the 2007 highs, to the 38% and 50% levels. This would get it back into the long term trend as shown by the fibonnaci fan.

gg

Would be good to see that on a semi log for more perspective gg.

Might flatten out a little more.

Yo no tengo.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

Would be good to see that on a semi log for more perspective gg.

Might flatten out a little more.

Yo no tengo.

You did ask for it, it might provide too much encouragement for the bulls though!
Any more calculus and it will be going straight up. Calculus I believe is a stone, and we all know what happens to stones when you toss em in the air.

gg

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

A yearly chart of the XAO back to the lows of 1981 to the present shows that 4400 or 3650 is a more realistic target.

Is that comparing apples to cumquat's?

Considering that many of the big caps of the 80 then 90 and now noughties are very different companies. Just think of NWS as an example nothing then everything (10% of the index) then nothing again.

Is that trend-line actually a trend-line or just a random collection of numbers that happen to be getting larger?

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is that comparing apples to cumquat's?

Considering that many of the big caps of the 80 then 90 and now noughties are very different companies. Just think of NWS as an example nothing then everything (10% of the index) then nothing again.

Is that trend-line actually a trend-line or just a random collection of numbers that happen to be getting larger?

TH, I agree the composition of the index has changed a bit but doesn't it still represent the market psychology of the day? I think the very long term trend is pretty uniform isn't it? Just from memory..

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

TH, I agree the composition of the index has changed a bit but doesn't it still represent the market psychology of the day? I think the very long term trend is pretty uniform isn't it? Just from memory..

No real idea to tell you the truth Kennas. It will no doult prick the punters interest and belief they are being smart when the ABC muppet pulls up the same chart in a couple of months. So yes it will have some "market psychology" effect.

Just that long term index charts are a bit funny, especially the small ASX market, in that they are not the same as a single stock chart or even a sector chart for that matter. They are not what they once were if you get where I'm coming from

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is that comparing apples to cumquat's?


Is that trend-line actually a trend-line or just a random collection of numbers that happen to be getting larger?

Its a fibonnaci fan. I don't normally draw it on a semilog, so cannot vouch for its significance.

Fibonacci Fan Lines are displayed by first drawing a trendline between two extreme points. MetaStock then draws an invisible vertical line through the second extreme point. This vertical line is then divided at the Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8%. Finally, three trendlines are drawn from the first extreme point so they pass through the invisible vertical line at the above three levels. (This technique is similar to the method used to calculate Speed Resistance Lines

gg