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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

What I have done here is I have used Nicks raw chart for clarity, since it seems I agree with Nick on his wave (1) and (2) points and I agree with WP that the top of 1987 is a wave one... but we all differ from there.

The most significant difference is where I place my cycle III.

Yeah, I know you say wave threes cannot be the shortest... in this case by about 13 points from memory, about .5%. Is'nt that a bit trivial when you consider that there's at least an element of arbitraryness in the rules.

Why I place it there is partly about what I mentioned in the earlier post and that notion of 'proportion' and a bit about something motorway alluded to... but we'll let ya all work that one out for yerselves. :p:

... and because Nicks leg (3) is a staggering 15 times leg (1) in price. I don't get that. Similarly but to a lesser extent, WP's second largest degree wave three, is something like five times wave one and wave five nearly double again.

... and also because when one considers the numbers and the market at the time Elliot came up with his rules the numbers are so exponentionally bigger now so that the slightest inaccuracy will be exponentially magnified over time... and as I said earlier if everyone, or enough to move the market is aware that it was approaching a correction time, wouldn't you get in early.

It looks to me like the perfect deception 'they' (refer Motorways post) would employ. All those who are strict stickers for rules would have dismissed it as a wave three and set themselves up for a miss-cue later on.

Yeah I know that last bit is a bit cynical... but, I like it anyway. :cool:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
What I have done here is I have used Nicks raw chart for clarity, since it seems I agree with Nick on his wave (1) and (2) points and I agree with WP that the top of 1987 is a wave one... but we all differ from there.

The most significant difference is where I place my cycle III.

Yeah, I know you say wave threes cannot be the shortest... in this case by about 13 points from memory, about .5%. Is'nt that a bit trivial when you consider that there's at least an element of arbitraryness in the rules.

Why I place it there is partly about what I mentioned in the earlier post and that notion of 'proportion' and a bit about something motorway alluded to... but we'll let ya all work that one out for yerselves. :p:

... and because Nicks leg (3) is a staggering 15 times leg (1) in price. I don't get that. Similarly but to a lesser extent, WP's second largest degree wave three, is something like five times wave one and wave five nearly double again.

... and also because when one considers the numbers and the market at the time Elliot came up with his rules the numbers are so exponentionally bigger now so that the slightest inaccuracy will be exponentially magnified over time... and as I said earlier if everyone, or enough to move the market is aware that it was approaching a correction time, wouldn't you get in early.

It looks to me like the perfect deception 'they' (refer Motorways post) would employ. All those who are strict stickers for rules would have dismissed it as a wave three and set themselves up for a miss-cue later on.

Yeah I know that last bit is a bit cynical... but, I like it anyway. :cool:
Click to expand...

Hello Whiskers,

You can't really have waves of lower degree (your primary waves) lasting longer in time than your cycle waves.Your cycle 2 from the 1987 crash only lasts a couple of months.

If you look at Nick Radges or Wavepickers charts you will see they have one thing in common and that is wave equality.

Not critisizing, just an observation, it is always good to look at some E.Wavers charts to get the feel of how they place a count.Practise makes perfect, keep it up.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Long term forecasts can be very difficult with EW, Kondratieff or whatever method one uses.

Not sure if Nick has one (I don't) would be a long term inflation adjusted chart of the All Ordinaries. I think a wave count on such a chart might be of more value and very interesting IMO.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Long term forecasts can be very difficult with EW, Kondratieff or whatever method one uses.

Not sure if Nick has one (I don't) would be a long term inflation adjusted chart of the All Ordinaries. I think a wave count on such a chart might be of more value and very interesting IMO.
Click to expand...

I agree, going back so far gives a false picture.I have seen a inflation adjusted count from way back but can't remember where now, maybe Elliot Wave International, I'll see if I can find it.

I remember thinking in real terms that the stock market as a whole hadn't done that well.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
wave equality.
Click to expand...

Yeah Porper, that's a concept I had in mind but from a different perspective.

wavepicker said:
long term inflation adjusted
Click to expand...

Porper said:
I remember thinking in real terms that the stock market as a whole hadn't done that well.
Click to expand...

Interesting points guys.

I was curious about how you reconcile all that in the context of the basic rules and guide lines.

Good fodder to consider in my analytic and devils advocate hats.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well the proverbial

7 good years and 7 bad years

suggests a cycle that is periodic in time

cycles in the stock market cycle

but are not periodic in time

Hence

Chaos
is deterministic

but not predictable

Low tide follows high tide
for the very fact there is a high tide

it is inevitable

With tides in the market
We can identify high and low
in a structural sense
but can not name the day

WHEN !

But We can be ready
and adapt

Because in the proverbial sense
the 7 good years does follow the 7 bad

Joseph effect....

So

Play what is in front of you
and know what the structure is.

need to do both..

but to predict in sense of time
is to guess and gamble ( imo :) )

You can not be right but only early or late,
You are just wrong !


Problem arises
because time is just another name for movement

So time is connected, but the speed becomes a factor

When it has moved enough
the time is up

Trend lines
are really valid only
in a frame of two points of similar magnitude ( see not time )
after that they become fantasy lines (imo :) )
ie they have lost sensitivity. they no longer inform us of much .

motorway
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This post follows on from earlier analysis some weeks ago:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=318065&postcount=3837

back then it was mentioned based on that analysis we were expecting a low for this leg to come in between 8th-15th Aug. I specifically like the 8th as it's 55 fib trading days from the peak give or take a couple of days. TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE. The target I mentioned back then for that timeframe was between 4686-4690pts based on long tern fib clusters. If the market does find support at this level it will be interesting as it will RE AFFIRM my long term MONTHLY wave count that I have previously posted on this thread. That chart was marked such that the advance from the low of 1987 till 2007 was a third wave.

I have re posted the updated EW daily chart from that last post and left the arrows with expected pattern of trend intact on that chart.

The fixed cycle analysis both in the Intermediate and Medium Term tells us we are coming into a major low here completing 4 degrees of trend. If it is correct then this should be a substantial rally with the next rotation or HIGH not due till mid October and then there is another cycle above that one that is not due till years end so the rally will persist till then IMO!!

The EW pattern of trend im play ATM has just completed a 4th wave(blue 4th wave) OF Green wave C. Contracting triangles precede the last move in an impulse and that is what we have here. As a measured move, the thrust out of the triangle should terminate at the 4686-4690 level but it has already completed the requirement today(by making a new near market low) of completing the 5th wave. So we might go lower from here to the target but then again we already might be there as we are only a few days away.

Based on this I have started opening up a new portfolio today of longs and will be slowly easing back into the market in the days ahead. NON are resource stocks commodity related. And if I'm wrong then.... ::banghead:

Good Trading to All

Cheers
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

eg square root of time just one..
Click to expand...

Whiskers

There are log scales
and then there are arthimetic scales

But how does price actually scale
( through time/levels )

does a stock at .01
move the same as a stock (even the same stock) at 100. ?

If you tossed a fair coin
10000 times

what outcomes could be expected ?

Are you going to get exactly 5000 H & T s ?

There is a hint
in how price scales

both arithmetic and log charts
distort the true trend

So very long trendlines
over large price ranges

are no longer sensitive
to the real...

motorway
 
Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
Play what is in front of you
and know what the structure is.
Click to expand...


motorway said:
Problem arises
because time is just another name for movement

So time is connected, but the speed becomes a factor

When it has moved enough
the time is up
Click to expand...

motorway, great post. though i think you're wasted in technical analysis. you should be a fiction writer or failing that a university professor...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Motorway, you sure are a mysterious, even mystical fella... not giving much away, making everyone think it out for themselves. You're not a teacher or philosopher by any chance eh? :)

You remind me of that old chinese man, Miyagi in The Karate Kid... and I'm Daniel. :eek:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
Leonardo Fibonacci may disagree with me.
Click to expand...

I rather doubt it. The ratios you call Fibonacci are actually the "golden ratio", and Leonardo Pisano (aka Fibonacci) did not know that the sequence he described was related to it, yet alone that these ratios would be used in stock speculation.

Does the market move on golden ratios? I rather doubt it, but if enough people believe and if it's in all the software, then I suppose it could come to be so.

I see these ratios more as guidelines that help the eye to see patterns and give them a scale.:2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Motorway, you sure are a mysterious, even mystical fella... not giving much away, making everyone think it out for themselves. You're not a teacher or philosopher by any chance eh? :)
Click to expand...


I`m a fan too.I have little understanding what the (koan like) posts say but strangely that is why I enjoy reading them.:confused:
 
ASX 200 Forecast

Does anybody have any forecasts for the ASX 200 today?

- I'm thinking it will fall roughly 50 points throughout the day.
 
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