XAO Technical Analysis

Snakey · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

double or triple bottoms of 4900 we need to see a break down to at least a close of 4800 to confirm a lower bottom. here we are entring the 8 month of this downturn and still no bottom in sight imo.
1 month is my time frame for the bottom.

any one else like to give there forecast timeframe for the bottom?

sam76 · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Error wipes QBE out

QBE's share price

July 30, 2008 - 3:13PM

The sharemarket plunged 100 points this afternoon after an error in a sell order effectively wiped QBE Insurance off the ASX-200 index.

A trader error in a sell order sold 500,000 QBE shares at 1/10th of a cent. Stock in QBE, which opened at $23.09, plummeted to near worthless for eight minutes on the exchange.

"Clearly this was an accident," said Australian Securities Exchange spokesman Matthew Gibbs.

The exchange's dispute committee met quickly after the plunge, he said, and cancelled all orders for QBE stock that priced it $22.20 and under.

"Because the price error was so drastic, it effectively removed the stock from the index," he said.

QBE Insurance had no comment on the market event.

gav · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

What will happen to the poor person who made that mistake?

What is stopping me from buying 1,000,000 BHP shares (that i cannot afford), waiting for it to go up 10cents then selling the lot 1hr later? And if it backfires, just say it was a typo as I meant to buy 1,000 shares?

TheAbyss · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

gav said:
What will happen to the poor person who made that mistake?

What is stopping me from buying 1,000,000 BHP shares (that i cannot afford), waiting for it to go up 10cents then selling the lot 1hr later? And if it backfires, just say it was a typo as I meant to buy 1,000 shares?

The fact that you do not have the money/equity in your account will stop most individuals. If you are in the employ of someone with an account large enough or are fortunate enough to have 40 mill in your acc, then nothing as that is a legitamte tactic if you care to risk it and you can find someoone willing to buy $40 mill worth of BHP in a session (or about 14% of a days trading)

Either way i cant see you getting your money back as 10 cents is a small fraction of the BHP sp so not really a legit error. Try selling them at 3.90 a shae instead of $39.00 and you might get your money back

steven1234 · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

"Trader error" my a$$.

I think its just another tactic used to drive sentiment down and induce selling.

Does anyone know where where i can find a chart that would show index volumes so i can confirm whether my theory that the instutitions cleaned up with buys after the so called "trader error"

CamKawa · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

This is QBE for today.

steven1234 · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

What about the index overall.

I'm sure many would have expected the worst and sold off on the drop. Someone must have been buying if the indext didn't drop off.

professor_frink · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

steven1234 said:
"Trader error" my a$$.

I think its just another tactic used to drive sentiment down and induce selling.

Does anyone know where where i can find a chart that would show index volumes so i can confirm whether my theory that the instutitions cleaned up with buys after the so called "trader error"

all trades below 22.20 were canned.

davo8 · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Unfortunately you are very wrong with those comments. Go to the link below and read the charts I posted on ANZ late last year, days before ANZ started this multi month decline. Not only did I trade the move(mind you I was not heavily against the market), but it was against a trend that had lasted for years, T/A WAS RIGHT PS: that trade did help heavily to my account.

More importantly we are coming into a historic low in the next few weeks IMO

Did your Random Walk analysis alert you that a huge decline was about to start? Of course not

I genuinely hope that you made a pile of money, but you were late.

I have no truck with random walk, but on purely fundamental grounds the decline in financial stocks was clearly signalled from around Sep 07, and the recent losses of NAB and ANZ were clearly visible back to Feb/Mar 08, when they under-provisioned.

You may find that banks are tradeable right now, but I tell you with certainty that they are not investable. Ben Graham wouldn't touch them and neither shall I.

Historic low: maybe, but not a bottom. For that you'll probably have to wait 12 months. I'll post a piece of Belkin as an example of what I'm expecting.

davo8 · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Most global stock indexes have decisively broken below their 200 week moving averages, which is a major trend reversal. The intermediate term (3 month) and long term (12 month) model forecasts point down. We recommend taking advantage of every minor rally to close long positions, go short and shift out of tech and cyclicals into defensive groups. Stock indexes haven’t yet had the big surge in volatility (5% daily NASDAQ moves down and up amidst a declining market). That is probably approaching. Bear market trading is typically more productive selling into those big percentage bounces, rather than selling into big declines and then watching the market bounce back in your face.

Potential downside targets after a 200 week average breakdown are 1) the 200 month average and 2) The previous 2002-2003 lows. Those levels are 25%-47% below current levels for most stock indexes. U.S. financial indexes are already there (BKX, XLF). So don’t think it can’t happen for the broader market and other currently elevated indexes, stocks and groups.”

Michael Belkin
The Belkin Report
July 6, 2008

For the ASX that means below 4000.

wavepicker · 30 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
For the ASX that means below 4000.

Hey davo, I thought you classified TA as Voodoo???
The Belkin Report is telling us what we already knew 6 months a go, a major trend reversal!! Talk about a lagging indicator commentator!!

professor_frink · 31 July 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
For the ASX that means below 4000.

If we get that low, I'll be backing the truck up and opening up the bottom drawer

wavepicker · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

August is here and the next few weeks look like they might be very interesting IMO with some good opportunities coming up.

Firstly as mentioned in my last post I think this leg down will find a low between 8th and 15th August. July 24th was expected to be significant from weeks earlier and it ended up marking the high of the last countertrend up.(Although back then was not sure it would mark a high or a low) This was using fixed cyles analysis

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...postcount=3837

I have been looking at the monthly Cyclic Analysis and it concurs that we the 4686-4690 area was a reasonable probability of ending this leg down. The previous Monthly Cycle Analysis (see link below) on the 25/6/08 hinted we had much further to move down with all cycles pointed hard down.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...postcount=3747

In the current monthly analysis we have reached the upper band below the nominal , a level which has held rock solid support for the last 25 years. That is not to say it will hold but neverthless interesting. The 1 year cycle has bottomed and the 2 year cycle appears to be reaching a low. The 4 year cycle has a fair way to go, but a low in it does not necessarily have to coincide with a low in price as mentioned in earlier postings. In fact if this market continued net sideways for another 3 years that 4 year cycle could continue falling and reach and bottom.

In the shorter term SP500 daily chart shows pretty much the same, the 1 year cycle coming into a low and with the 45 and 120 day cycles appear to be bottoming in the next few weeks.

There is much pessimism about the place ATM, everyone is saying how bad things are going to get(just look at the financial press headlines). Not saying that they are wrong, eventually things might end up deteriorating, but this negative sentiment from a contrarian perspective when combined with the message hinted in the charts I have posted might give enough evidence that a rally could be in the making starting in the weeks ahead.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.

Cheers

Porper · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
August is here and the next few weeks look like they might be very interesting IMO with some good opportunities coming up.

Firstly as mentioned in my last post I think this leg down will find a low between 8th and 15th August. July 24th was expected to be significant from weeks earlier and it ended up marking the high of the last countertrend up.(Although back then was not sure it would mark a high or a low) This was using fixed cyles analysis

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...postcount=3837

I have been looking at the monthly Cyclic Analysis and it concurs that we the 4686-4690 area was a reasonable probability of ending this leg down. The previous Monthly Cycle Analysis (see link below) on the 25/6/08 hinted we had much further to move down with all cycles pointed hard down.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...postcount=3747

In the current monthly analysis we have reached the upper band below the nominal , a level which has held rock solid support for the last 25 years. That is not to say it will hold but neverthless interesting. The 1 year cycle has bottomed and the 2 year cycle appears to be reaching a low. The 4 year cycle has a fair way to go, but a low in it does not necessarily have to coincide with a low in price as mentioned in earlier postings. In fact if this market continued net sideways for another 3 years that 4 year cycle could continue falling and reach and bottom.

In the shorter term SP500 daily chart shows pretty much the same, the 1 year cycle coming into a low and with the 45 and 120 day cycles appear to be bottoming in the next few weeks.

There is much pessimism about the place ATM, everyone is saying how bad things are going to get(just look at the financial press headlines). Not saying that they are wrong, eventually things might end up deteriorating, but this negative sentiment from a contrarian perspective when combined with the message hinted in the charts I have posted might give enough evidence that a rally could be in the making starting in the weeks ahead.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.

Cheers

Very interesting Wavepicker,

I have had the 19th August as significant for a while as per my last posted chart

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=22696&d=1216942866

This is using time cycle ratios, fixed time cycles, ratios of various swing relationships and giving a cluster zone.We then narrow this zone as best we can giving a high probability zone for a reversal.

However, whichever count I use (and there are 3) I get this last low on the 16th July as significant, and unlikely to get broken short term.Going by market sentiment this seems highly unlikely, however we must stick to the analysis and not let outside fundamentals get in the way.If this is dissproved we can then ammend the count to the most likely scenario.

The chart of the DOW is giving an even stronger signal that the July low is unlikely to be broken short term.On that I have a bounce up to 12000 before a possible break to the downside.There is exceptionally strong support going right back to 1999 around our recent lows.

explod · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Based on fundamentals I believe that the stock market correction in the medimu to longer term has only just begun. As some analysts (who predicted this down turn accurately up to 5 years ago) have said, "what we have now is just the ringing of the bell for the start of the game". Another said, "we are just up to the National Anthem.

However putting all that aside, have the wave analysts put the ruler over the period of 1929 through to 1932, in which time some markets dropped up to 90% ??

Some predict, with fundamental support, that this time will be worse.

Porper · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Based on fundamentals I believe that the stock market correction in the medimu to longer term has only just begun. As some analysts (who predicted this down turn accurately up to 5 years ago) have said, "what we have now is just the ringing of the bell for the start of the game". Another said, "we are just up to the National Anthem.

However putting all that aside, have the wave analysts put the ruler over the period of 1929 through to 1932, in which time some markets dropped up to 90% ??

Some predict, with fundamental support, that this time will be worse.

You always get extreme views Explode, from those that say we are at a bottom to some suggesting triple figures for the DOW.

One thing is for sure, if this is to be the worst Bear market ever and we get the DOW to 900 or whatever it doesn't matter whether you have money in cash, Gold or pidgeon Pooh, the world as we know it will have self destructed.

One person sharing this view is Prechter and Elliot Wave International.They are encouraging subscribers to take out all cash with American banks and put it in Swiss banks or safe overseas bamks where it is safer....supposedly.Mind you he has been predicting Armageddon for so many years it is not funny.To me he has now lost all credibility.

We are getting extreme pessimism now from the media and Joe public.Maybe a sign that the end of the downturn is nearing ? or maybe we will self destruct, who knows.

explod · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
You always get extreme views Explode, from those that say we are at a bottom to some suggesting triple figures for the DOW.

One thing is for sure, if this is to be the worst Bear market ever and we get the DOW to 900 or whatever it doesn't matter whether you have money in cash, Gold or pidgeon Pooh, the world as we know it will have self destructed.

One person sharing this view is Prechter and Elliot Wave International.They are encouraging subscribers to take out all cash with American banks and put it in Swiss banks or safe overseas bamks where it is safer....supposedly.Mind you he has been predicting Armageddon for so many years it is not funny.To me he has now lost all credibility.

We are getting extreme pessimism now from the media and Joe public.Maybe a sign that the end of the downturn is nearing ? or maybe we will self destruct, who knows.

On the contrary, there is a lot of optimism as well. Many are saying interest rates will drop here in Aus., soon so our troubles are over.

If you want to seriously consider some of the economic signals from back then and the reasoning behind the rationale you may learn that the projection of armaggeddon was soundly based on good economic fundamentals. And in the final take it is very simple, we have been spending more than we have earnt. Of course the tricks to try and put the day of reckoning off are merely making the final outcome worse. The predictors who may have called it too early probably would never believe that there would be so much lying jawboning and cheating of the people by world banks to do so. The world is at tipping point now with oil, food and lack of production against the value of money, not to mention dreadful drought in many places where large populations are starving as we speak.

Nice to live in Fairy Land I know, but if one is to survive financially one has to have the eyes wide open.

Porper · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
The world is at tipping point now with oil, food and lack of production against the value of money, not to mention dreadful drought in many places where large populations are starving as we speak..

Large populations have been starving for ever explod, nothing new here.That is the world we live in.Greed rules.

explod said:
Nice to live in Fairy Land I know, but if one is to survive financially one has to have the eyes wide open.

If one is to do more than "just survive" you must also have your eyes open.

I will repeat myself, if things are as bad as you make out Explod and as suggested the Dow makes 3 figures no matter what you do it won't make a scrap of difference how you measure your money, it will be almost worthless, as will your Gold, barrels of oil or whatever else you think has monetary value.

Yes, we all know the world has spent more than it has earnt, what we don't know is how all this is going to pan out in the next decade, that includes yourself, who has no idea also, just like everybody else, all you have is an opinion.

wavepicker · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Guys,

I don't think anybody knows if this is a secular bear or not. Notice in the post I said the market maybe coming into a low for this leg down.
In earlier posts based on EW Law of Alternation, I and Nick Radge mentioned we might be in for a sideways market for a number of years.

There are other possibilites, YES we could have a prolonged downward trend, but ATM I as a trader are focusing on the short to medium swings and as always take it one move at a time. Probabilities now favour a rally come mid August, a tradeable rally and that is what I am concerned with.

Explod, who are these analysts who predicted the start of this bear market from 5 years ago. I would like to read their comments they posted 5 years ago that this index(XAO) or an other index would reach 6800+ in November 07.
If they got these numbers right then they (and YOU) with such an accurate Crystal must be must be mega rich right??? My experience in the past(and I know rederob disagrees) is that fundementals lag the market. When the subprime problem first surfaced last year in August the market tanked and then rose to new highs in November. It's only now after the market has sold off dramamtically how fundemntally bad this issue has become. BUT the market moved first. If things are to improve in the near future, the market will move first and then the fundemental good news will surface months after. ATM all we hear is bad news in the financial press, and at the market peak last year it was good news.

Pete, thanks for comments and analysis. It's great our number/analysis line up. We have done our hard work, hopefully soon the market is playing ball with our thoughts and decides to work for us too!!

Cheers

explod · 3 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Large populations have been starving for ever explod, nothing new here.That is the world we live in.Greed rules.

If one is to do more than "just survive" you must also have your eyes open.

I will repeat myself, if things are as bad as you make out Explod and as suggested the Dow makes 3 figures no matter what you do it won't make a scrap of difference how you measure your money, it will be almost worthless, as will your Gold, barrels of oil or whatever else you think has monetary value.

Yes, we all know the world has spent more than it has earnt, what we don't know is how all this is going to pan out in the next decade, that includes yourself, who has no idea also, just like everybody else, all you have is an opinion.

Not so, having grown up on the land I know that one can survive providing there is a reasonable water source. I do have a plan through all of this for myself and family.

Overpopulation of humans is a new slant to this planet and starvation on the current scale is greater (by sheer numbers) than ever before.

20% of the US population is also living under the poverty line. I could go on and on but dont' need to. Have checked the fundementals that I need to be reasonably aware. And I am never certain of anything as things change, but I am ready to make the changes as required. I have and can survive sleeping under a barbed wire fence, few others will be able to. It may not come to that, but ready. And there will allways be alternative investments that will rise, this is just knowing human needs and greed.

I never spoke of a Dow at 900, I do know that we have real problems going forward and IN MY OPINION (Opinion only) there is a long way to the bottom of this yet.

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