XAO Technical Analysis

Boggo · 17 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
So in other words, the market will go up, or down.

Is there anything in that complicated wave stuff to disagree with or improve on the simple view that the primary trend is down and we're headed for a re-test of support at 5170-ish?

Davo8, my view of the world is that it will climb up to around the 5600 area and then resume its downtrend.

I may be completely wrong but its probably closer to a sensible reply
The UK is very strong tonight which may be an indication of how the US may behave which as you are aware can have an overriding influence.

Just my

Whiskers · 20 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO is getting a bit close to the low the other day of 5,399.

The indicators seems poised for a take-off again soon... the MACD is continuing to converge.

...maybe a bit of a bounce by the close today to get going north again

...or I might have to revise my EW count again.

Broadway · 20 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
The XAO is getting a bit close to the low the other day of 5,399.

The indicators seems poised for a take-off again soon... the MACD is continuing to converge.

...maybe a bit of a bounce by the close today to get going north again

...or I might have to revise my EW count again.

Agreed, volume across the financials in asx20, and volume across the asia indexes.
And plenty of spi DOM pressure up.

We'll see what happens..

davo8 · 20 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
The XAO is getting a bit close to the low the other day of 5,399. The indicators seems poised for a take-off again soon... the MACD is continuing to converge. ...maybe a bit of a bounce by the close today to get going north again

Or the wave-free suggestion that we're just headed for a test of 5200? If the US is sick tonight, watch out below!

MRC & Co · 20 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Or the wave-free suggestion that we're just headed for a test of 5200? If the US is sick tonight, watch out below!

lol, there is a lot of surfing going on around here huh!

Big obvious thing for me, crude has formed a beautiful bullish flag on low volume. Though, would like to see volume dropping off.

That being said, I am definately a believer in gaps being filled and that one below looks far from a breakaway or runaway gap with prices struggling to push further.

I think it is going to break one way or the other, though that gap close may act as support to take off from if it comes to fruition. Anything below that and I am definately bullish on the XAO.

Trying to add some more longs to hedge my overweight shorts at the moment, until this flag breaks.

explod · 20 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Well Comsec at a seminar yesterday were reported to have said that it will be above 6000 by the end of the year.

After todays effort on a DJIA rise last close, I wonder at that.

MRC & Co · 20 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Well Comsec at a seminar yesterday were reported to have said that it will be above 6000 by the end of the year.

Comsec crystal ball is probably about as accurate is 99.999% of other peoples!

50%

>Apocalypto< · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Such beautiful moves on the XAO long move down to double bottom. to clean rally up to clean rally down. non choppy clean moves.

I am now getting more bullish on the daily i think we will keep moving down a touch to 5200 -5100 think at that point a bottom could come in. range to rally. if the low / support breaks then time to look at were the first counter gets to.

See chart

Good trading

wavepicker · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Agreed Joseph. 5100-5200 has good chance of offering support, but the bounce IMO will be only good for a couple of hundred points before the 5K level gives way.

I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future

Cheers

CamKawa · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Well Comsec at a seminar yesterday were reported to have said that it will be above 6000 by the end of the year.

After todays effort on a DJIA rise last close, I wonder at that.

Well I think XAT is running a little bit behind Comsec's 20 Jul 2007 plan already. Here's a quote "CommSec expects the ASX 200 index to reach 7,000 points by June 2008." from https://www.comsec.com.au/public/news.aspx?id=849 it's currently at 5295.

CamKawa · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future

Cheers

Do you think that will be "the" bottom or just "a" bottom, or is it too hard to tell?

>Apocalypto< · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Agreed Joseph. 5100-5200 has good chance of offering support, but the bounce IMO will be only good for a couple of hundred points before the 5K level gives way.

I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future

Cheers

for sure mate.

My view is of the short term only. I got a tip from from a certain system I am using that a bounce on the S&P500 could be coming.

that support is also a triangle pattern that has more bearish implications.

cheers mate

wavepicker · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
for sure mate.

My view is of the short term only. I got a tip from from a certain system I am using that a bounce on the S&P500 could be coming.

that support is also a triangle pattern that has more bearish implications.

cheers mate

gee I woould not mind seeing it one day, must be pretty unique and quite an edge!

>Apocalypto< · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
gee I woould not mind seeing it one day, must be pretty unique and quite an edge!

mate you would not believe it if I told you!

davo8 · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Agreed Joseph. 5100-5200 has good chance of offering support, but the bounce IMO will be only good for a couple of hundred points before the 5K level gives way.

I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future
Cheers

Couldn't agree more. There's just too much bad news still not factored into the prices. The real bargains are still months off. Don't forget 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992...

wavepicker · 21 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
Do you think that will be "the" bottom or just "a" bottom, or is it too hard to tell?

Who knows! We all have our views and most of the time they are wrong, but personally when the time comes I will expecting a MAJOR low, but for the market still to be choppy and range bound for years. Nevertheless we can get some good rallies.

I would not be surprised to see a one year rally after this low with a similar pattern of trend to the (3 waves) that we had in the decline. That is the pattern I am playing with. After such a strong bullmarket 3rd wave that lasted 20 years 1987-2007, we usually have such consolidations.
As an example just look at the DJIA after the depression lows till it's high in 1966. It was range bound for years(15-16yrs). That period was similar to what we have been seeing of late, war, spiralling inflation and an oil shock.

I don't think our market will exhibit a consolidation for as long, I was thinking more like 4 -7years when looked at relative to the 20 year 3rd wave.

wavepicker · 25 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Gonna stick my neck out here and call a termination for this current leg down.

I am looking for approx a 50 % upward retrace of the last leg down to complete wave e and this sideways green wave B and before we head south again.

Any opinions and comments welcome

SGB · 25 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Gonna stick my neck out here and call a termination for this current leg down.

I am looking for approx a 50 % upward retrace of the last leg down to complete wave e and this sideways green wave B and before we head south again.

Any opinions and comments welcome

Good to see you back WP,
enjoy your analysis. Nothing wrong with sticking the neck out.
Mines go a bit shorter lately

SGB

wavepicker · 25 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

SGB said:
Good to see you back WP,
enjoy your analysis. Nothing wrong with sticking the neck out.
Mines go a bit shorter lately

SGB

Thanks SGB. My neck neck has been shortened considerably over the years too!!

Seems to be quite a bit of confluence building up here. 8Hr Cycles Analysis backs up EW structure for a multi day rally here. Prices have reached an extreme relative to the Nominal trend, and thus ahave a high probability of at least retracing back to the blue nominal level in the days ahead. Mind you this might only be a short term rally. Apocalypto and myself saw this in the SP500 last night and it has set up a nice long trade this evening.

Cheers

Whiskers · 25 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Wavepicker

Since the XAO did that last little WOOBLY it stuffed up my 'L' plate count. I remember you saying usually the waves stick out, just look right, and I thought the count you have looked more obvious, but I'm unsure... no actually I haven't a clue, why you would call such a short wace 'c' relative to 'a'.

In other words, what's the significance of such a long wave 'a' compared to 'c'?

Excuse me for scrawling over your chart.

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