XAO Technical Analysis

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

As mentioned earlier, I notice exemptions to rules like that one and it seems to me the current circumstances qualify.

Oh god, this is one reason I have never gravitated towards EW. So many guidelines and everybody appears to have their own slightly different, interpretation.

This is one reason I like the way Nick implements EW analysis, basic rules and only a few guidelines, keeps it simple, yet logical. That being said, I still don't take much notice of any EW analysis. A quick look at the chart in a couple different timeframes can tell me which way it is trending, and whether highs or lows are overlapping is what I use to determine strength of the trend. I'm a simple man

Back to XAO, getting flogged! Currently have 9 shorts (as of a day or two ago, can't remember, too much beer), and 2 longs.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I understand what you guys are saying, but can I draw your attention to the exceptions.

This rule holds for all non-leveraged cash basis markets.

Are you telling me the share market is non-leveraged these days?

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is one reason I like the way Nick implements EW analysis, basic rules and only a few guidelines, keeps it simple, yet logical.

Miner uses E.Wave in a much more basic fashion than Nick Radge.Very simple is his motto.He doesn't label complex corrective moves where as Nick does.

Who knows which is better ? I prefer the more complex personally, but either works.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

I understand what you guys are saying, but can I draw your attention to the exceptions.

This rule holds for all non-leveraged cash basis markets.

Are you telling me the share market is non-leveraged these days?

Regardless of rules, do you personally understand and agree with the logic that a wave 4 should cross through the top of a wave 1 and still remain bullish?

That is the real question IMO.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

as of a day or two ago,

Not too late in an accelerating trend?

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not too late in an accelerating trend?

Well I have had quiet a few shorts on for a while now, well before it's large fall a few days back.

Just had my other few longs stopped out and only seen mainly short set-ups over the last several days...........

Got my eye on quiet a few long set-ups to hedge, but nothing takes my fancy at the moment, bit risky for me, but I can only 'trade what I see'.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Miner uses E.Wave in a much more basic fashion than Nick Radge.Very simple is his motto.He doesn't label complex corrective moves where as Nick does.

Who knows which is better ? I prefer the more complex personally, but either works.

Ill bet he still holds to the 3 foundation rules of Elliott.

This rule holds for all non-leveraged cash basis markets.
Are you telling me the share market is non-leveraged these days?

This statement makes Radges observation

You are exhibiting a classic example of forcing your own opinion and bias into the analysis.

even clearer as W is forcing not only his view of EW but also his view of the market to substantiate his response.

Harmless in discussion but damaging if you have a 100k of long trades on based on fallacious analysis.

Porper
Simple or Complex what does your EW tell you?

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ill bet he still holds to the 3 foundation rules of Elliott.




This statement makes Radges observation


even clearer as W is forcing not only his view of EW but also his view of the market to substantiate his response.

Harmless in discussion but damaging if you have a 100k of long trades on based on fallacious analysis.

The other consideration is the configuration of the component waves.

In an impulse, waves 1 & 3 (and 5) must be 5 wavers, either diagonal triangles or impulsive. Wave 3 must be impulsive.

We don't see this in the current pattern, the component waves are all corrective.

Baboom.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Harmless in discussion but damaging if you have a 100k of long trades on based on fallacious analysis.

I struggle to see how this statement can be true in light of all the discussion recently about analysis. Remember, IT'S NOT THE ANALYSIS!

What's likely to be more important is how well he manages his bad trades

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Its not about how you cross the road either.
But you dont step out in front of a bus---do you?

All part of "managing" wouldnt you say?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Its not about how you cross the road either.
But you dont step out in front of a bus---do you?

All part of "managing" wouldnt you say?

Well I have my own opinion, but I'm commenting on the fact that your's appears to be contradictory, depending on what you are trying to prove.

IMO analysis will continue to be all important.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

IMO analysis will continue to be all important.

I totally agree---but its not what makes you the money!

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

I totally agree---but its not what makes you the money!

Still struggling...

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

The other consideration is the configuration of the component waves.

In an impulse, waves 1 & 3 (and 5) must be 5 wavers, either diagonal triangles or impulsive. Wave 3 must be impulsive.

We don't see this in the current pattern, the component waves are all corrective.

Baboom.

I have 5 micro waves penciled in.

I agree with theasxgorilla and techa/a, that at the end of the day it's about managing your trades.

All I'm saying is I'm keeping my options open on the grounds of exceptional circumstances before I definitively call it an impulse up or another correction down.

Yes my FA analysis does suggest my proposition is correctand I have seen other EW'ers use fundamental and other TA in collaberation.

Since the decline started all the so called experts have been so sure it was going to be the biggest recession, even depression in the US and spread to Aus and world wide. But we haven't had a single quarter of negative growth yet and now some of those experts are starting to say there won't be a recession, the concern is more inflationary.

I find as many different forcasts with EW's.

I have consistantly maintained that the correction was overdone... in no small part based on the reported amount of leverage in the markets and the effect that leverage, including in the commodity and futures markets were having on the share markets and actual economy.

Just a little foot note about that overlap rules... I often find termonology like minor overlap allowed... internal parts only... up to about 10 or 15%.

The fundamental premise of EW is that it's supposed to be a tool to reflect the rythmic flow of the market sentiment. To ignore the influence increasing and unprecedented leverage has on the market and people's sentiment and to religiously stick to a rule that has been qualified from the start in terms of leverage seems to me to be a bit foolish.

Whats important is I agree and foresaw that the current leg/sub leg is corrective and if the price falls below the low I mentioned it probably invalidates my count. Other technical indicators also suggest stronger support around 5,300, that if broken means more correction.

I will see where it turns before I call it definitively and then gauge the next set of possible ranges from there... in conjunction with my FA. :

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

The other consideration is the configuration of the component waves.
In an impulse, waves 1 & 3 (and 5) must be 5 wavers, either diagonal triangles or impulsive. Wave 3 must be impulsive.

I guess it's stuff like this that convinces me (again) not to do waves.

A simplistic view of the chart leads me to conclude it will test support again at around 5100, and what happens after that depends on what opens O/S.

Anyone really, really sure I'm wrong?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

I guess it's stuff like this that convinces me (again) not to do waves.

A simplistic view of the chart leads me to conclude it will test support again at around 5100, and what happens after that depends on what opens O/S.

Anyone really, really sure I'm wrong?

If doing wave counts yourself is a problem you can always do what I do and 'outsource' your counting

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

If doing wave counts yourself is a problem you can always do what I do and 'outsource' your counting

To ASF? Plenty of wavers here! I beleive one even goes by the name......

 

[lusk]

Re: XAO Analysis

I guess it's stuff like this that convinces me (again) not to do waves.

A simplistic view of the chart leads me to conclude it will test support again at around 5100, and what happens after that depends on what opens O/S.

Anyone really, really sure I'm wrong?

l was exactly the same l never gave EW a chance because it seemed so complicated, l didn't believe that something like that could work.

It won't replace what you've already learnt it will add to it.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Since the decline started all the so called experts have been so sure it was going to be the biggest recession, even depression in the US and spread to Aus and world wide. But we haven't had a single quarter of negative growth yet and now some of those experts are starting to say there won't be a recession, the concern is more inflationary.

More straw man arguments. The overwhelming consensus believed a recession would be avoided except for a brief period where the majority tipped just above 50% on the recession call back in March. Who are these so-called experts that predicted the biggest recession/depression? Exaggeration doesn't add credence to your arguments, it just detracts from them.

The US domestic economy contracted in the first quarter of 2008, the only thing that kept GDP positive was the export sector, not to mention a ridiculously low PCE deflator. The head of the NBER, (the group that ultimately decides on the recession call) said recently;

"I think we're heading for a recession," said at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York. He stressed that he was speaking from his personal opinion, not that of the NBER, the unofficial arbiter of U.S. recessions."My sense is that the risk to overall GDP growth over the next six months is still very significant," he added.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based NBER has not declared a recession and is unlikely to do so for many months. Feldstein, who is also an economics professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, will step down from his NBER post at the end of the month."

Employment has contracted for five straight months and the unemployment rate has risen more than 1% from the trough. Both of those metrics have never happened outside of a recession. Yes employment losses are small on a comparative basis, but these numbers will be revised downwards over the next 12 months which is always convenient for the no recession camp because the recession is usually done by that time.

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ill bet he still holds to the 3 foundation rules of Elliott.

Absolutely Tech, never wavers, only difference is that if the count isn't simple, Miner will move on, fine for people trading the vast US markets, always more to find, a bit trickier trading the ASX.


Porper

Simple or Complex what does your EW tell you?

The count is fairly easy, even for a novice at the moment.

I posted the same expanded flat pattern that Whiskers now has, but it was along time ago and it was quickly invalidated.

Not only has that count invalidated a clearly defined rule, it has also broken important guidelines.

Even if we were to surge to all time highs from here, the Expanded flat correction would not be valid, I haven't even looked at that scenario as to me it just is so unlikely.

We are quickly accelerating to those recent lows, support levels, volume will be very important defining where we go from there.Not my strong point, Tech will be the one to ask then.