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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Don't need to, I have live data.

But yse, SP500 up 5 at this point in time; but this point in time (1 hour before cash open) is meaningless. Let's see where it closes.
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Exactly.

Not really pointing to anything more than another night of chop to me, but it's impossible to tell at this point. Only marginally pointing higher.

Disappointing :(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Don't need to, I have live data.

But yse, SP500 up 5 at this point in time; but this point in time (1 hour before cash open) is meaningless. Let's see where it closes.
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I think that it's not completely meaningless...... I mean +5 or -100 like it was earlier today does give some indication of sentiment...doesn't it?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kelpie said:
I think that it's not completely meaningless...... I mean +5 or -100 like it was earlier today does give some indication of sentiment...doesn't it?
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At an hour before open, it may give an indication to the open, but where the market goes during the day is an entirely different matter. It will be the close of the SP500 tonight (and of course SYCOM) which will gives a better indication of where the XAO/XJO open on Tuesday.

Until then, all is speculation.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kelpie said:
I think that it's not completely meaningless...... I mean +5 or -100 like it was earlier today does give some indication of sentiment...doesn't it?
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I never saw the S&P500 futures down 100 :eek:

Up just over 6 (live) as I type.

The pattern on the hourly is looking ominous IMO, anyone predicting a collapse at some point today?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Guys PLEASE when quoting futures PLEASE PLEASE check where they closed on the ASX the day before. All the website your are using are rubbish.

They never give the close from the ASX close. And if there is a holiday they are giving the close from the overnight session. So what is happening is you are all quoting 5 points up from a 110 point drop on Friday night.

You cannot rely on these website for quotes. If you have to use them then check where the actual Cash market closed and work out the change from there. It gets tiresome to be always pointing this out. God help you if you trade off this sh*t
 
Re: XAO Analysis

You will not see this on the XAO/XJO because of the staggered open BUT there is a potential for an Island reversal (Exhaustion Gap of some sort) today on the SPI. Will of course need a big night OS and then a bit of spine from the Big Boyz but just a thought with fin year end coming up.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Here's my big picture of the XAO.

I've taken on board a number of comments, but in the final analysis and prioritisation of what I think is the intent of EW, I used that as the criteria to establish my change points.

What was getting difficult for me was the range of different publications/authors not always agreeing on some of the fine detail, hence my quest to try to understand the philosophy behind EW so as I could prioritise my criteria rather than relying on the 'letter' of some publications/authors.

I had to strip all my indicators off the chart so it could be legible.

If I'm right the XAO will be moving on and up at a bit better rate than the US market. By me I think it looks like we are about the bottom of wave 4 of leg 1 of the next impulse wave, while the US looks to have completed wave 2 and jells with my FA belief that we will out perform them as they now go in to bat to save the USD.

One issue I pondered for awhile is whether there necessairly has to be minor waves in every wave and I couldn't find anything to clarify the subject.

Case in point. The big down thrust c-iii by my criteria was a significant move in itself with no descernable minor waves (minute maybe, but I don't do minute) , but many have minor waves along it. For me it looks bigger on candle and OHLC charts than the volume, price action and time shows.

Another cross check for me was the P&F chart showing that this little correction is still a long way of coming back to the down trend line. Motorway, your the expert there. What say you?

I see many different systems. Is there a universaly accepted coding system for EW?

Comments welcome.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

It looks like this wave can go down to abt 5,300 and still be valid.

That's based on an exemption to the 'normal' wave count rules in a market driven by leverage. I think it's probably fair to say the market is being affected pretty badly by futures atm.

Having said that it seems that it would be getting a bit extreme if it went past the the bottom of wave 2, 5,380.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Your wave-iv's keep overlapping the highs of wave-i which is not allowed. As such these moves are corrective, not impulsive.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
Your wave-iv's keep overlapping the highs of wave-i which is not allowed. As such these moves are corrective, not impulsive.
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Is it really that black and white, Nick?

As mentioned earlier, I notice exemptions to rules like that one and it seems to me the current circumstances qualify.

Also, it seems to me that just looking at candles or OHLC charts can be misleading, ie they just shows time and price levels. Isn't EW a function of volume as well as price and time? Isn't it the interpretation of all three in context and proportion that makes EW unique?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

There are 3 core rules in EW and yes, they are black and white. You have broken one.

You are exhibiting a classic example of forcing your own opinion and bias into the analysis. The market is clearly saying one thing yet you're unwilling to see it. Do so at your own peril.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Where?


Why?
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This is one web site that leaves the door open to exceptions... and isn't the nature of all the trouble in the world economy today, especially the stock markets, the 'exceptional' level of leverage in the markets.


MOTIVE WAVES
Motive waves subdivide into five waves with certain characteristics and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. They are straightforward and relatively easy to recognize and interpret.

Within motive waves, wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1, and wave 4 never retraces more than 100% of wave 3. Wave 3, moreover, always travels beyond the end of wave 1. The goal of an impulse is to make progress, and these rules of formation assure that it will.

Elliott further discovered that in price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among waves 1, 3 and 5. As long as wave 3 undergoes a greater percentage movement than either wave 1 or 5, this rule is satisfied. It almost always holds on an arithmetic basis as well. There are two types of motive waves: impulses and diagonal triangles.

IMPULSE

The most common motive wave is an impulse. In an impulse, wave 4 does not enter the territory of (i.e., “overlap”) wave 1. This rule holds for all non-leveraged cash basis markets. Futures markets, with their extreme leverage, can induce short term price extremes that would not occur in cash markets. Even so, overlapping is usually confined to daily and intraday price fluctuations and even then is extremely rare. In addition, the actionary subwaves (1, 3 and 5) of an impulse are themselves motive, and subwave 3 is specifically an impulse. Figures 2, 3 and 4 all depict impulses in the 1, 3, 5, A and C wave positions.

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm
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Re: XAO Analysis

Jaysus Whiskers.

You keep posting your amateur antics and asking for advice. However, when that advice is contrary to your own analysis you reject it even though you admit your just an EW beginner. You called a bottom at 5800, now the bottom is 5300, eventually you'll be right but your analysis doesn't hold any water. How about listening to someone who knows what they're on about?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
This is one web site that leaves the door open to exceptions... and isn't the nature of all the trouble in the world economy today, especially the stock markets, the 'exceptional' level of leverage in the markets.
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This text that you quoted, specifically excludes the current XAO action as an impulse on at least two points.

It ain't an impulse.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Which two... that ain't affected by exceptions?
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1/ XAO is a cash market, not a futures market. Therefore the exception is not considered.

2/ The overlapping exception mentioned for futures markets is very brief, viz, intraday or a single close. This wave has settled into the overlap.

Sorry mate, there is just nobody in your corner on this one. No impulses here.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We are drifting off the thread subject slightly but I just thought I would post one of Robert Miner's commit to memory rules re W4.

"Wave-4 should not make a daily close into the closing range
of the Wave-1"

(my underline)

Mike
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
We are drifting off the thread subject slightly but I just thought I would post one of Robert Miner's commit to memory rules re W4.

"Wave-4 should not make a daily close into the closing range
of the Wave-1"

(my underline)

Mike
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Boggo, he also states that this is ok for futures etc.If wave 4 penetrates wave 1 it is not seen as a impulse.

At work so no chart but the recent price action has closed into wave 1, therefore it is an A,B,C correction, we are in wave 1 of an impulse down.No question at the moment, it would take a large move up to invalidate this count.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Boggo, he also states that this is ok for futures etc.If wave 4 penetrates wave 1 it is not seen as a impulse.

At work so no chart but the recent price action has closed into wave 1, therefore it is an A,B,C correction, we are in wave 1 of an impulse down.No question at the moment, it would take a large move up to invalidate this count.
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Agreed. In whisker's post there was reference to "territory" of wave 1, I was quoting Miner as being more specific.

Mike
 

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